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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

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Consistantly above average 850's ENS again and very wet

MT8_London_ens.png

No sign of any trend to cold at all.

Even in the North the picture is pretty much the same with maybe a few more colder runs but not many

MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.gif

 

But certainly a step to cooler conditions, that can't be denied

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1znschg.png

day 15 height anom / ec ens...

 

of course, at day 15.... yanno! But interest.

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whilst the gefs uppers are indeed showing a general just above average trend through the period, the ecm go just below average beyond day 8 and remain so through week 2.


 

day 15 height anom / ec ens...

 

of course, at day 15.... yanno! But interest.

 

i wonder how far we are from cutting off that ridge around se greenland/iceland and piling the depressions through on an ever sinking basis ? based on the ecm 12z , not very!

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Puzzled by some comments tonight.  The easterly at t168 remains, and will be chilly (and probably unpleasantly damp for me). Chances of a cold incursion from the north east remain, but these are rare in November (only 2010 fits in my longish lifetime, and my dad never saw one). Rain may be a problem to my south and west, but we could do with it and will miss out again.  Beyond even normal uncertainty after t168.

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I would be very interested in how the ECM ensembles pan out beyond day 10.

EDH1-240.GIF?09-0

 

Looks like we have a race on our hands. Milder air from the south west against very cold air starting to shift south westwards from Scandinavia. 

All bets are off at the moment to me but there are sign the current holding pattern could be over in 8-12 days time. So it does appear that our moment could have arrived for an early cold spell.

GFS actually sees the split over the Pole but at the moment I wouldn't use it to call the outcome. The GEM ens do not develop the cross-polar flow and the result is inevitable.

 

So for me we have two options (Actually for once I would put trust in the main message of the ECM given it is supported by the ensembles too).

1) The cold air to the north east win, it turns increasingly cold with wintry showers.

2) The milder air wins out and we see heights develop over Europe again as the jet bends around the Greenland high (Think late October last year, mild and very wet would sum it up)

Edited by Captain shortwave

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ECM still showing an easterly wind developing during next weekend and into the following week

 

ECU1-168.GIF?09-0ECU1-192.GIF?09-0ECU1-216.GIF?09-0ECU1-240.GIF?09-0

 

Although we won't be seeing much snow from this it could start and fall at some lower levels in Scotland at times especially so around the 17th

 

ECU0-168.GIF?09-0ECU0-192.GIF?09-0ECU0-216.GIF?09-0ECU0-240.GIF?09-0

 

The easterly is very much still on

 

:)

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put the kids to bed and looking again at the ecm 12z run NH on meteociel - wow you're a tough crowd to please !

The trouble is last year there was lots of eloquent popycock being floated about SSWs, split vortexs and 'potential' beyond the reliable time frames and it turned out to be pure fantasy - fun but fantasy. That's why I prefer to look at what the models are showing is likely in the higher resolution and more reliaible timescales and they are showing loads of unsettled weather heading for many. That has to be a concern especially to those hit badly last year rather than any fanciful cold shots that may or may not have a miniscule chance of happening.

If we saw the hemispheric profiles we are now in say January / february with the more favourable natural forcings in place and much more deep cold available I would feel more bullish about the chances of something cold developing and maybe getting to us in the snow starved UK. :D

In the meantime get the brollies out!

Edited by Purga

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Just come back from a wedding so couldn't post anything but boy what a 12z ecm and there is still more room for improvement!!that arctic high looks a beauty on the ecm!!I did say if we didn't get back to where we were on yesterday's 12zs then the chances of cold would be slim,but what a set of runs this evening barring the parallel run!!!on to the 18z now.....

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814day.03.gif

NOAA 8-14 dayer toninght ... hmmm ... looks like a decent block over Greenland, the UK still not really able to get to the deep cold though (at this time of year - if it had been January this would be a snow maker).  Slim, slim chance that the trough to the north of Scandi and the trough next to the UK could get closer with time ala ECM from last night - couldn't call it more than 20% from that. However, the longer the pattern persists, the colder it will get.

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Consistantly above average 850's ENS again and very wet

MT8_London_ens.png

No sign of any trend to cold at all.

Even in the North the picture is pretty much the same with maybe a few more colder runs but not many

MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

 

Purga, you are only picking one run in isolation yet again and making a judgement based on that alone. To my eyes, the trend to cooler 850s is startingly familiar territory across the last three days of model output and clearly something is up with the predicted NH modelling over Northern Europe from next weekend onwards. :friends:  As to whether the charts you post above actually verify come say, the 21st November or thereafter (shown as a rise in t850s) is pie in the sky right now. Hopefully NOT pie in the sky is the mid-term projections as these have been remarkably consistent from run to run.  :clapping:

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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Just come back from a wedding so couldn't post anything but boy what a 12z ecm and there is still more room for improvement!!that arctic high looks a beauty on the ecm!!I did say if we didn't get back to where we were on yesterday's 12zs then the chances of cold would be slim,but what a set of runs this evening barring the parallel run!!!on to the 18z now.....

Yes, the latter frames of the GFSP is quite an eye opener. Couldn't see us getting a second bite of the cherry anytime soon should height rises from the south feature to this extent. Many will no doubt label it as being an outlier, but as it's soon to be the replacement for the current GFS, I would've thought it cannot be discounted either.

post-17830-0-46141400-1415569278_thumb.j

post-17830-0-59582200-1415569279_thumb.j

post-17830-0-00401700-1415569280_thumb.j

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Sticking to the reliable timeframe, models increasingly showing the atlantic trough becoming unstuck to our west battling against ever increasingly strong heights to our east and most crucially NE, as I said yesterday this is far from a fluid mobile atlantic pattern, its akin to Nov 09 in many respects.. the result a very wet week in the west and southwest and mild for all before we see the trough elongate and stretch in situ pulling in a drier SE flow for the weekend as heights build to the north and northwest. 

 

Longer term, a battle of sorts look like commencing between the atlantic and a more continental influence, we could easily end up with a messy cyclonic picture with low pressure and troughs continuing to come unstuck across the country albeit taking a more direct southerly course producing near normal temperatures, if we maintain the strong heights to the north such a set up would help aid the development of a notable cold pool which against a weak atlantic/PV would increase the chances of a much colder evolution setting up. 

 

In the meantime its a drab dank outlook, the kind of week when many will be yearning for some warm sunshine.. or even just a hint of brightness.

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Very tidy ECM 12z ens. mean day 10,and watch out to the NE  for those 850 temperature anomalies to turn increasingly blue over the next few days.

 

 

An early taste of pretty severe cold for the USA coming up this week as well.

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Quite a difference at just day 5 with the sceuro ridge between the GFS and ECM, much higher heights on the GFS.

 

gfsnh-0-120.png?18ECH1-120.GIF?09-0

 

GFS day 6 is looking pretty good for blocking

 

gfsnh-0-144.png?18

Edited by Barry95

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Purga,

It is clear for all too see with these charts that everything is in the balance and actually all pointers are that The mid term and winter in general is looking better from a cold perspective.

Take a look at the Strat thread while your at it. Emphasis on "take a look"

post-16760-0-12089800-1415571483_thumb.j

post-16760-0-69650600-1415571492_thumb.j

post-16760-0-51097100-1415571503_thumb.j

Edited by Polar Maritime
To remove off topic remarks

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The GFS is out to 144 & whilst it exhibits the usual slight eastward bias & the weak amplification of the atlantic its the very FIRST GFS run in the last 5 days that has shown 2 wave activity joining over the pole to separate the cross polar flow & a split vortex...

 

The upgrades continue.....

 

S

 

Yep. The GFS at day 7 is looking very interesting

 

gfsnh-0-168.png?18

 

The GFS P at day 6 is looking much better too

 

gfsnh-0-144.png?18

Edited by Barry95

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The NOAA and GEFS D10 anomalies are quite similar (as is the ECM).

 

HP Alaska to the pole and Greenland to Scandinavia. Trough NE Canada orientated east with a weak trough SW approaches. Resulting in a surface analysis oft low pressure over the Atlantic and  average or slightly above temps for the UK

post-12275-0-15687200-1415571752_thumb.g

post-12275-0-35643000-1415571758_thumb.g

post-12275-0-51544700-1415571773_thumb.p

post-12275-0-43120300-1415571781_thumb.p

post-12275-0-30364700-1415571792_thumb.p

Edited by knocker

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Awesome GFS 18z.....but it is the pub so can we have any faith in it?? a stunning day 7 chart and if the upgrades continue then who knows where we will be by the end of this coming week..and if the do continue surely the guys down at Exeter must sit up and take notice...

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