Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[IDO]

quick scan through the gefs at T384 and plenty of HLB and split vortices on view.  no strong sign that the p/v is getting its act together.

 

 

My method on checking for HLB/MLB trends is looking for yellows and warmer heights in the respective latitude. Looking at the D16 charts there are NO yellows at high latitude on any of the 22 members, and less than 50% greens at high latitude. Where as in the coming week we see plenty of yellows in all models. In the ML not many yellows showing. Not to split hairs but to me that is a sign of trend to a more active PV, i.e. a PV that is moving towards its normal state. Early this year in Jan we have similar charts to the current D16 with the vortex not in its default state, but it was able to produce some horrible wet weather for the UK:

 

 

Looking at the CFS AO a move towards a neutral AO as the GEFS are hinting, but short lived:  

 

Thats how I identify a trend but if I am reading it wrong then I stand to be corrected.

[Continental Climate]

Not a bad chart for 120 

Seems reasonably similar to UKMO of the same timeframe 

[Winter Cold]

No updates on Meteociel yet of ECM 12z. Is it delayed?  Also the model output time for UKMO says 17:00 GMT on the times thread, so where did ppl find it before this? It was definately posted before this time this afternoon?

 

 

5PM BST , 4 PM during winter.

 

ECM is delayed on Meteoceil but can be viewed on wetterzentrale (currently 96h) but there is no NH view which is really what we need.

 

 

Mods - I think the model run time thread is wrong then, as it does say 6pm summer and 5pm winter on here:

 

United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO)

UKMO Viewer

(approximate)

00Z 0500-0600 | 12Z 1700-1800 (GMT)

00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900 (BST)

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72242-model-output-update-times/

[Barry12]

Comparison between the big three at 144

 

 

ECM and UKMO looking more a like.

Edited November 9, 2014 by Barry95

[skadi]

5PM BST , 4 PM during winter.

 

ECM is delayed on Meteoceil but can be viewed on wetterzentrale (currently 96h) but there is no NH view which is really what we need.

 

 

Yes, you can!  There's a button in green top left where you can choose Europa or N-Hem. Edit: Sorry, it's still the 00z output. 

 

Edited November 9, 2014 by skadi

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please think before posting, There are hundreds of members and followers reading this Forum for informative information. Please add a little 'meat to the bones' not just posting a chart ect.. Or your post will go missing.

 

Many Thanks, PM

 

Please Continue

Edited November 9, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[radiohead]

Yes, you can!  There's a button in green top left where you can choose Europa or N-Hem.

 

 

NH view is still showing the 0Z run at the moment.

[SomeLikeItHot]

My method on checking for HLB/MLB trends is looking for yellows and warmer heights in the respective latitude. Looking at the D16 charts there are NO yellows at high latitude on any of the 22 members, and less than 50% greens at high latitude. Where as in the coming week we see plenty of yellows in all models. In the ML not many yellows showing. Not to split hairs but to me that is a sign of trend to a more active PV, i.e. a PV that is moving towards its normal state. Early this year in Jan we have similar charts to the current D16 with the vortex not in its default state, but it was able to produce some horrible wet weather for the UK:

 

gfsnh-2014012112-0-6.png

 

Looking at the CFS AO a move towards a neutral AO as the GEFS are hinting, but short lived:  aoindex.png

 

Thats how I identify a trend but if I am reading it wrong then I stand to be corrected.

 

But how many were seeing the current forecast set up later this week at 16days? I doubt many if any. Even my relatively limited (ie 3 years) experience of model watching shows that blocks once established get shifted faster in the models than reality. Today's UKMO 12Z and GFS at 96 bares a lot more similarity to the ECM 12Z +144 on the 7th than their own efforts at the same time. 

[Mucka]

JMA, not as good as this mornings ECM but not a disaster.

 

 

[Continental Climate]

Pretty much a perfect easterly there i think. Only thing is we would want the undercutting lows to be a bit further south and more of a feed of air from the north east and not from the east where unfortunately there is no cold pool. Hopefully if this does come off it will be a rinse and repeat pattern and our next bite of the cherry should be a lot colder as it will be late November/December by then. Anyway with vortex displacement i am sure another chance wont be long in coming. 

 

 All in all very encouraging signs today i feel with euro agreement at 120 and GFS well......not that fussed really!!!

 

 

Edited November 9, 2014 by Continental Climate

[gottolovethisweather]

Comparison between the big three at 144

 

 

ECM and UKMO looking more a like.

 

Good post Barry, yes all three are shockingly similarly consistent given the timescales involved. The middle part of November around about the 15th November onwards continues to be a pivotal turning point to my mind. As Phil Nw also indicated in his most recent post, the static pattern continues into this week with troughing nearby and various fronts rotating around the UK bringing a very unsettled picture right out to t+144.

 

However, as your charts at t+144 indicate and if the more expert members could correct me here if I'm wrong, is a trend to push the trough further westwards which further adds weight to our theory of a broad scale change come next weekend and into the following week.   A reverse flow is entirely probable by this time next week I would suggest.   Fascinating and somewhat of a rarity so early in the Winter season, in fact wintry synoptics (aside from the obvious deep cold and snow) in Autumn it may well be.

Edited November 9, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[bluearmy]

I count 12 out of 20 gefs members with non blue areas over the polar field at day 16.

On meteociel, non blue is 544 dam. (Less adjustment for slp). I'm content with my original post

[fergieweather]

Just looking to the coming week.

The almost stationary pattern with the Sceuro block holding up Atlantic momentum is going to mean a pretty wet few days for many of us.

Below a snapshot of

the jet driving low pressure towards our latitude bringing bands of rain and showers, not just to us but many parts of western Europe.

The rain amounts in some places could lead to some flooding and very unpleasant conditions at times.

 

Not something that perhaps will raise much discussion as many eyes are on the bigger picture further on, but i feel it worth a mention.

It's very much key focus of attention Phil, at least in my region. Surprised it's not getting greater mention... should be, ahead of possible seasonably colder spell.

[The Eagle]

ECM easterly looks fragile by the 18th. Lack of cold pool to tap.

 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

[LomondSnowstorm]

Some modestly cold uppers coming into Scotland from a localised cold pool over Norway at +192:

Blocking much weaker to the north by +216 compared to the 00Z ECM:

As with 2010 we do need the vortex segment over Svalbard to drop into Scandi and move west to provide the coldest uppers, still a possibility but still quite a long way off that yet, with a lot of hurdles to get past! 

Still, low heights into Europe and a disrupted vortex is definitely a good thing and if Cohen is right some medium term pain may be required for longer term gain (although this still has the potential to deliver something wintry IMO).

 

+240:

Edited November 9, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[bluearmy]

Not easy to see but the split n of Greenland looks to be intact on ecm 12z fi.

And Ian, every year you wonder why hardly anyone comments on the stuff on our doorstep! At least we're consistent!

[IDO]

Big differences in the WAA from the ECM 0z to 12z:    

 

D10:   

Edited November 9, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[gottolovethisweather]

ECM easterly looks fragile by the 18th. Lack of cold pool to tap.

 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

 

I'd say you're probably correct but a re-analysis of the run would already have put the UK under a four day Easterly prior to your presented chart which is darn impressive at this early stage. 

Edited November 9, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Ali1977]

Not much for the coldies to get excited about tonight, heights lowering in the NH on most models now. In a few weeks and as we hit early December then things may pan out better with the possible effects of SW and NH snow cover taking effect.

[Mucka]

It's very much key focus of attention Phil, at least in my region. Surprised it's not getting greater mention... should be, ahead of possible seasonably colder spell.

 

Pretty standard fare for the time of year though? That and it looks fairly localised for the SW UK.

Perhaps toward mid month once the ground is saturated and there is the prospect of heavy prolonged rain it will be more of an issue?

 

ECM Atlantic breaking through by day 10?

Looks like Wetter cursed that run.

 

 

Still weak blocking to the N but hardly resembles yesterdays bomb does it?

Edited November 9, 2014 by Mucka

[gottolovethisweather]

Some modestly cold uppers coming into Scotland from a localised cold pool over Norway at +192:

Blocking much weaker to the north by +216 compared to the 00Z ECM:

 

I suspect you would know this but whilst it is relevant, I personally wouldn't worry about the given temperature profiles at that range over your locale or even the broader UK, I would concentrate on the NH view, more especially looking into any developments across Northern Europe and also over in the North Pacific region at the same timescales.

Edited November 9, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Swave Snow]

I think that on this 240 hr chart of the 850's that there is Warm air over the Western side of Greenland 

[radiohead]

Quite a stark difference between the 0Z and 12Z ECM on day 10. Though it's hard to expect consistency at that range.

 

 

For comparison, 12Z GFS on day 10 :

 

[SteveB]

As Ian F  mentions, plenty of rain on offer this week.

 

 

Thankfully there are drier periods in-between the wetter spells & the East does escape the worst of it.

[Mucka]

As Ian F  mentions, plenty of rain on offer this week.

 

 

Thankfully there are drier periods in-between the wetter spells & the East does escape the worst of it.

 

 

Yeah 48 hour totals don't look too worrisome though of course localised flooding cannot be ruled out.