Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[Eskimo]

15th November 2010: Raging Polar Vortex and not a lot of interest. 

Edited November 9, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[MR EXTREMES]

15th November 2010: Raging Polar Vortex and not a lot of interest. 

i just posted the same lol i dont think he means this.

what do you mean steve murr?

[Eskimo]

Well some similarities if you pattern match   

[Polar Maritime]

Can we stick to Model "Output" please.

 

Thanks PM.

[Mucka]

GFS (p) and quite a few ensembles picking up on shortwave spoilers around Southern tip of Greenland in the mid range, they have been the demise of many a nice blocking set ups but overall the output has moved toward ECM, (GFS has always been playing catchup, remember originally it had the jet running over the top through Scandi and really didn't see the undercut until well after ECM has already modelled it. I understand why Steve gets frustrated trying to explain this obvious bias time after time and it only became obvious to me after I read Steve describing it 2 or 3 years ago and looking to see if it was true.)

 

GFS ensembles have also moved the pattern further West and made corrections toward ECM overall with more of this sort of thing appearing.

 

 

The last time I did a simple overview of GFS ensembles was a few days ago where the majority were in favour of our weather type being influenced by Westerly based weather (Atlantic) but now they are dominated by those showing an Easterly type. The MeO's 10% chance of an Easterly looks a little outdated based on current output. I'm sure they would give it at least a 30% chance now but it should be remembered that even with an Easterly type setup it will be difficult to pull in cold uppers to the UK for snow chances. A strong NE flow is probably better than a continental flow at this time of year in that regard.

 

 

But, but beware the Greenland shortwaves.

Edited November 9, 2014 by Mucka

[alex12]

what time does the ECM roll out?  

[The Eagle]

The time of year is showing in the output as we do struggle to tap very cold 850 temps. That is the only downside right now of otherwise superb synoptic charts.

[bobbydog]

just for comparison,

 

the GFS at 192hrs-

 

 

and the GFS (P) also at 192hrs-

 

[SE Blizzards]

what time does the ECM roll out?

 

Model Output update times can be found here....

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72242-model-output-update-times/

Edited November 9, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[bluearmy]

i answer to steve's request, he means the ukmo T144 and the chart from the 19 nov 2010

 

2010                                                                                        2014

 

                           

Edited November 9, 2014 by bluearmy

[kimb]

Ukmo is fab !!!!

Someone post the UKMO 144 & the identical nov 2010 chart!!!

Hi Steve, I'm guessing you say that because their is a loop over of High pressure towards Greenland ? But where does any cold for the UK come from ? It's not going to be the East ?

[Polar Maritime]

In the meantime some very wet weather to come later this week, Places could even see flooding. And feeling cool. 

 

Edited November 9, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Mucka]

i answer to steve's request, he means the ukmo T144 and the chart from the 19 nov 2010

 

2010                                                                                        2014

 

archivesnh-2010-11-19-12-0.png                           UN144-21.gif

 

 

That is a remarkable synoptic match, truly. The only obvious difference is the jet is a little weaker in the 2010 chart. 

[bluearmy]

That is a remarkable synoptic match, truly. The only obvious difference is the jet is a little weaker in the 2010 chart. 

 

the question being will the separation off the eastern seaboard allow WAA up the west side of greenland to retrogress the blocking to our north and northeast??

[gottolovethisweather]

In the meantime some very wet weather to come later this week, Places could even see flooding. And feeling cool. 

 

 

Yes PM, a very wet week ahead, especially the further South and West you are located within the UK. All eyes on the ECM tonight and of course, the next several day's 12z runs to see if this forecast zonal switch in wind flow from next weekend onwards holds. I'm personally not too bothered about inter-run complications as I simply like to dip in on the afternoon and evening updates and generally trust the broader trend. My confidence levels for the mid to late November will increase when the UKMO 6-15 day updates start to reflect these foreseen changes and as of now, that is probably the only downer. Aside from the date on the calendar right now as to anyone expecting snow, however, beggars can't be choosers and the current forecasted NH synoptics are simply beautiful when viewed from a coldie's aspect, such as myself. 

 

Thanks for the sound analysis from several invaluable participants in here, keep it up.  

Edited November 9, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[MR EXTREMES]

gefs is rather tasty i must say really could be cold end of nov or dec.

[bobbydog]

Hi Steve, I'm guessing you say that because their is a loop over of High pressure towards Greenland ? But where does any cold for the UK come from ? It's not going to be the East ?

 

it did back in 2010-

 

 

question is, can this develop in the same way?-

 

[Swave Snow]

it did back in 2010-

 

 

question is, can this develop in the same way?-

 

 

 

Look better overall now in 2014 and therefore that it could possibly go colder than 2010 as in the 2014 chart that Low Pressure near the Aletiuns and High Pressure over Scandi

Edited November 9, 2014 by Swave Snow

[bluearmy]

quick scan through the gefs at T384 and plenty of HLB and split vortices on view.  no strong sign that the p/v is getting its act together.

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

i answer to steve's request, he means the ukmo T144 and the chart from the 19 nov 2010

 

2010                                                                                        2014

 

archivesnh-2010-11-19-12-0.png                           UN144-21.gif

Remarkable match.

The only difference I can see on this side of the Northern Hemi, is that the pressure systems are each (high and low) about 10mbs lower in 2014 than 2010. Against that ther appears to be more WAA north of the B Isles today.

In other words the low pressure is deeper to the southwest and the high centre over Greenland is not as extensive as in 2010 nor as high. I suspect the latter may be of more importance, but we will see.

Otherwise - its uncanny the similarities!! Whats the betting the outcome is very different!

[phil nw.]

Just looking to the coming week.

The almost stationary pattern with the Sceuro block holding up Atlantic momentum is going to mean a pretty wet few days for many of us.

Below a snapshot of midweek, which would seem typical of many days to come,

 

 

the jet driving low pressure towards our latitude bringing bands of rain and showers, not just to us but many parts of western Europe.

The rain amounts in some places could lead to some flooding and very unpleasant conditions at times.

 

Not something that perhaps will raise much discussion as many eyes are on the bigger picture further on, but i feel it worth a mention.

[Winter Cold]

No updates on Meteociel yet of ECM 12z. Is it delayed?  Also the model output time for UKMO says 17:00 GMT on the times thread, so where did ppl find it before this? It was definately posted before this time this afternoon?

[bluearmy]

Typical for meteociel to let us down on the NH view of the ECM!

Going to have to wait for exmwf website at 7pm unless sylvan sorts it out before then

Edited November 9, 2014 by bluearmy

[Continental Climate]

ECM out to 96 on wetter http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

Edited November 9, 2014 by Continental Climate

[Mucka]

No updates on Meteociel yet of ECM 12z. Is it delayed?  Also the model output time for UKMO says 17:00 GMT on the times thread, so where did ppl find it before this? It was definately posted before this time this afternoon?

 

5PM BST , 4 PM during winter.

 

ECM is delayed on Meteoceil but can be viewed on wetterzentrale (currently 96h) but there is no NH view which is really what we need.

 

 

Edit:

Correction

Hey Wetter now has NH button for ECM, how long has that been there? LOL

Doesn't update till later though

Edited November 9, 2014 by Mucka