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Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond


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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Sorry I ment to say it looks like it isn't backed towards the end of its run. Interesting times none the less

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Sorry I ment to say it looks like it isn't backed towards the end of its run. Interesting times none the less

 

GFS parallel...

 

gfsnh-0-264.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

OK happy rampers, there we go

Rrea00119621111.gif

Recm2401.gif

But - here is a Nov 1997 chart showing Nblocking, split vortex etc & lots of 'potential'

Rrea00119971126.gif

and 1998 turned out to be hopelessly mild.

 

So... nice charts to be sure and good possibilities but anything can happen in our wonderfully chaotic atmosphere & that's what makes it all so fascinating to try and predict.

 

I really hope for a great cold spell to evolve this season, we all deserve it after last year!

 

just to balance that, here's a chart showing a raging vortex and well, no blocking...

 

archivesnh-1962-11-26-0-0.png

 

 

 

 

anyway, GFS (P) splitting the vortex down the middle like the ECM

 

gfsnh-0-240.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

ecmslp.192.png

 

So putting it into context, this is very well supported ECM ensemble wise.   In fact so is this.....midnight 16th going into 17th

 

 

ecmslp.216.png

 

Now look at the posted ensemble, this chart is bang centre.   

 

Whether it happens we will see...but ECM says so today according to its ensemble

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The ECM ensembles, may not support such a strong Scandi high. But they do suggest that we will start to separate the heights to our north from the ridge to our east.

Simply put the high over Eastern Europe will sink whilst we retain heights to our north, this will allow cooler air to spread from the east and west to undercut the heights.

Hopefully this will end up as low pressure over Southern Europe and heights over Scandinavia pushing west to about the Iceland region. 

Hopefully week 2 will start the downward trend in temperature, week 1 around average, week 2 below average and chilly.

Week 3.............  :bomb:

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFSP continues to maintain a broad cool/wet N/W flow into the run, With the block not yet being Model'd strong enough, Or in the right place to deliver, With the Atlantic winning out.. Model's continue to struggle with upstream developments, Tonight's runs will make for interesting viewing if this mornings ECMWF is anything to go by. The uncertainty continues with Wave 2 warming being picked up in the Stratt, Some fantastic Model watching on offer.

 

gfsnh-0-144.png?6gfsnh-0-192.png?6gfsnh-0-300.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Its not very often you see charts like this:

 

ECH1-216.GIF?08-12

 

ECH1-240.GIF?08-12

 

Seeing a chart even 8-10 days away like that is very interesting indeed, in all honesty I think we are best playing the waiting game for the moment because the cold pooling to our north and east isn't quite there yet if its a severe cold spell your after, cold pooling is notoriously hard for the models to predict mind.

 

Interesting times ahead, I like it when it gets to this time of year and you begin to look forward to the model runs, well i do anyway. :whistling:

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A very exciting(for cold) ECM run this morning which ups the stakes on splitting the vortex in week 2-that's quite a +ve anomaly at day 10.

You can sort of understand though why the professional agencies are not yet jumping all over this when looking at the mean ht, anomalies.

Day 10

 

post-2026-0-55935800-1415446752_thumb.gipost-2026-0-66290700-1415446759_thumb.pn

 

yes impressive cross polar heights but also if you run through the suite there's little change in the orientation of the jet and the Atlantic trough, which keeps the UK in a similar set up over the next couple of weeks.

 

The latest combined London T2m and precipitation ensembles 

post-2026-0-91603900-1415447028_thumb.gi post-2026-0-45101000-1415447091_thumb.gi

 

suggest more of the same with rainfall amounts continuing to rise.

 

No getting away from the fact  though that we are in a great position for future developments of more favourable blocking as we continue to save 2 wave action from the troposphere.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Euro clearly the winner this morning for those looking for excitement. 

 

Unlikely to produce anything wintry but it we had the theta charts that the GFS offers then i'd expect strong indications of surface cold.

 

Recm2402.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

I think there's a strong tendency to be running away with ourselves here; last year the PV broke down giving North America some of its coldest temps, in the UK and Ireland we experienced the worst storm period on record and temps were higher than avg. Therefore a disrupted PV does not mean cold weather for this part of the world! A lot more has to happen before that comes in to play in my view. What this scenario suggests to me is a replay of the storms that affected us and the cold that affected The US last January? 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I think there's a strong tendency to be running away with ourselves here; last year the PV broke down giving North America some of its coldest temps, in the UK and Ireland we experienced the worst storm period on record and temps were higher than avg. Therefore a disrupted PV does not mean cold weather for this part of the world! A lot more has to happen before that comes in to play in my view. What this scenario suggests to me is a replay of the storms that affected us and the cold that affected The US last January?

Actually the tropospheric vortex was well organised last winter. The exception to this the the large distortion caused by strong ridging in the eastern pacific which caused the frequent cold spells in the US and sank the jet further south than usual over Europe.

Check the northern hemisphere charts for now and last year. A different kettle of fish.

Winter is coming... This year 😋

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I think there's a strong tendency to be running away with ourselves here; last year the PV broke down giving North America some of its coldest temps, in the UK and Ireland we experienced the worst storm period on record and temps were higher than avg. Therefore a disrupted PV does not mean cold weather for this part of the world! A lot more has to happen before that comes in to play in my view. What this scenario suggests to me is a replay of the storms that affected us and the cold that affected The US last January? 

The NH pattern is different at this stage than last year, the ECM T240hrs is a good illustration of a set up that can provide cold for the USA aswell as western Europe.

 

Theres no problem with very cold weather in the USA as long as you have some blocking to the north and the jet sufficiently south, its not the amount of energy produced by the thermal gradient off the eastern USA that's the problem but where it goes.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The mean 850s are consistently showing some WAA up the west side of Greenland (both ECM and naefs)

It's whether this signal firms up and increases that matters but the fact that it shows as a mean is encouraging.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Already identified by some posters, but just to reaffirm 00z EC DET (easterly) out at d10 considered outlier by UKMO M-R forecasters; and whilst 'not out of the question' it's considered only 10% PROB, with continuation of unsettled W/SW influence the favoured scenario into next 10-15d. Rain amounts are firmly the forecast and model-watch focus into forseeable.

I must say that I am surprised the Meto are only giving it a 10% chance, especially when 00z ECM control run agreed with it's op run.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Already identified by some posters, but just to reaffirm 00z EC DET (easterly) out at d10 considered outlier by UKMO M-R forecasters; and whilst 'not out of the question' it's considered only 10% PROB, with continuation of unsettled W/SW influence the favoured scenario into next 10-15d. Rain amounts are firmly the forecast and model-watch focus into forseeable.

no surprises there really!!until we see the models continuously show what the ecm shows this morning then the forecast will always be for the westerly pattern to continue!!
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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

I must say that I am surprised the Meto are only giving it a 10% chance, especially when 00z ECM control run agreed with it's op run.

well they are the professionals. Think it may take some time to get the cold to our shores. Sounds like a conveyor belt of low pressure systems hitting us over next 2 weeks. With us getting average temps. Let's see what the gfs and ECM says later on.
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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

I must say that I am surprised the Meto are only giving it a 10% chance, especially when 00z ECM control run agreed with it's op run.

Little support within EPS. Hence low prob for now.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

I think there's a strong tendency to be running away with ourselves here; last year the PV broke down giving North America some of its coldest temps, in the UK and Ireland we experienced the worst storm period on record and temps were higher than avg. Therefore a disrupted PV does not mean cold weather for this part of the world! A lot more has to happen before that comes in to play in my view. What this scenario suggests to me is a replay of the storms that affected us and the cold that affected The US last January? 

It was much better organised last year

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