Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[Jonan92]

Nice long range chart. That's a very disrupted vortex

 

 

A very very weak vortex indeed

 

Edited November 7, 2014 by Jonan92

[Mucka]

Its not a bad chart really, if we get the following occurring:

 

Shortwave forms at the base of the trough, pressure rises to the ne start to put forcing on the trough, as the energy begins to shear away from the trough some of that heads away to the nw, at the same time the shortwave has run into France and the ridge to the ne has extended further sw.

 

This should then at T168hrs show a more elongated troughing running nw/se, preferably things would be easier if the troughing was so blown up to begin with. I still have my doubts about what the UKMO is doing with that trough.

 

Yeah we will know more over the weekend. We can expect a lot of ups and downs in the coming days and really any cold shot before end of Nov would be a bonus.

I expect some will get frustrated but I would rather have some interest in charts than a flat jet.

 

Parallel.

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

Its not a bad chart really, if we get the following occurring:

 

Shortwave forms at the base of the trough, pressure rises to the ne start to put forcing on the trough, as the energy begins to shear away from the trough some of that heads away to the nw, at the same time the shortwave has run into France and the ridge to the ne has extended further sw.

 

This should then at T168hrs show a more elongated troughing running nw/se, preferably things would be easier if the troughing was so blown up to begin with. I still have my doubts about what the UKMO is doing with that trough.

It seems to be a common feature of the UKMO that past 96 hours, and particularly on the +144 chart, it doesn't seem to pick up on trough disruption as well as the other models.

That's not to say it's necessarily wrong though - there's been a few easterlies that the UKMO's put the kibosh on, most recently December 2012 which does have a similar look about it to this one (albeit maybe a bit more flimsy in terms of the NH profile) but it has equally missed a few in its time.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFSP 12z shows the cool/wet N/W flow continuing, And the Atlantic winning out. Yet another possible variation and probably far more likely. Even so im very happy with the N/H pattern we are in as we enter Winter. You could't get much better really..

 

Edited November 7, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

Close but no cigar on the 12z's. From a coldie perspective, more than happy with that. Tbh, I/2 an inch of slush doesn't do it for me so I'm not that bothered to see anything special from the output over the next fortnight. despite Steve's enthusiasm for the cold to get into a position where it might get here within the next two weeks, I can't see the blocks falling in the right place to make this happen.

patience required for our little part of nw Europe but I don't suppose for that long.

[Duane S.]

It looks like a classic case of an early season -ve AO that looks tantalisingly good on paper but in reality produces nowt much but loads of unsettled cool / mildish weather for the UK. So near but yet so far. Sure it may lead to something better later on but equally it may not!

GFS 12z FI is a good example

The LPs trundling across the Atlantic will keep us on the mild side of the action - frustratingly and we've seen it so often before.

Purga I know you are trying your absolute best to dampen the mood here every time a nice set of charts are output but you know as well as I do that you are only looking at the weather on the ground for your spoilers and taking it all out of context, i.e. Potential. It is nothing to do with 'so near so far', that makes no sense in relation to what is going on.

I don't think anybody is expecting a decent cold spell to suddenly develop inside 10 days, personally I think inside 2 weeks is very unlikely. In fact I think our first proper shot at cold will come at the tail end of the month, at best, and even then we may well miss out.

Last year we had a vortex that was already far more compact and with all the signs the Strat would go colder than normal and a w-QBO firmly in place, the potential for anything other than topplers was very low., the NH state was not conducive, this year is a completely different kettle of fish.

Ummmm

[phil nw.]

The GFSP 12z shows the cool/wet N/W flow continuing, And the Atlantic winning out. Yet another possible variation and probably far more likely.

 

Yes PM for the next couple of weeks the Atlantic still promises to hold sway for the Uk and W.Europe.

Those polar heights, although being shown consistently are just not enough presently to disrupt the westerly pattern.

Once we see some of those green(weak heights)turn to yellow/orange(solid Arctic heights) to our north then we could be in (cold) business.

 

Something like these are what we are looking for

 

Wave breaking into the Greenland area being shown,a much quicker and more solid route to a cold pattern.We lose the troublesome Greenland vortex and at the same time the Russian cold pool would find an easier route south west towards the UK. 

 

The block to our east is doing half the job by forcing the jet se keeping a cooler low pressure regime than we might have had - the jet on a more southerly path.However we are entering a more unsettled period because of this almost stationary pattern.

Having said that i agree with many of you we are looking at a much weaker and fractured vortex than normal which could bode well for proper cold further on.

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS was certainly a tease tonight, a few tweaks and northern Europe including the UK would be in the freezer in the later half of week 2.

There is no real bad output so far. The UKMO as underwhelming as it looks would simply hold us in the same pattern of ridge to our east and a trough over and west of the UK as heights temporarily build over Svalbard before sinking back into the stubborn Eastern European ridge. GEM is half way between but ends up reseting the amplified pattern.

 

GFS ens

Still not getting there as of yet. As many others have said, this is a long journey that we must head on A mixed bag for the UK for the foreseeable, fairly average temperatures with rain at times. 

[SMU]

Great ECM tonight continues the general theme of the outlook.

 

Not 'quite' as the first charts yesterday, however more on that later.

 

All in all happy with the outlook especially when you consider things are starting to fall into place for mid November.

 

More later......

S

[bluearmy]

another hemispheric spunky run from ECM.

Troughing getting further into Europe to our south and southeast in fi

[Barry12]

Good, but not quite carling

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM we can start calling temperatures below average. This we would be at chilly rather than cold.

 

@Barry, in my view, Carling would be last years charts... but hey whatever floats your boat

Edited November 7, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[nick sussex]

The ECM has decided to maintain some interest so as not to let the thread down!

 

Quite a different scenario from that shown in the mornings output and not surprising given the NWP's panic at the unusual set up. Trough disruption remains an issue even with the T240hrs showing lots of potential but its nice to see some positive anomalies increasing once again near the pole.

[Purga]

another hemispheric spunky run from ECM.

Troughing getting further into Europe to our south and southeast in fi

Smoke and mirrors then BA? While all are understandably looking for every iota of a chance of something cold developing, I can only see the main event which is a period of very unsettled and wet weather with a southerly displaced jet courtesy of the northern blocking.

Flooding could well become an issue again judging by some of the output and as I mentioned the other day, it's eerily reminiscent of the rain fest we endured last winter.

Hopefully it'll blow itself out in due course but at the moment we can see the LP train headed straight at us e.g. ECM 240hrs

The cold nascent vortex over N Canada spawning plenty of systems which are heading for us being nicely defeclted south by the beloved northern blocking!

When there is a 'realistic' sign of cold I'll ramp with the best believe me but I've seen many of these early season wonderful 'potential' hemispheric charts come to nought.

Not a popular take on things I know but just as I see it.

[bluearmy]

All you say is completely true purga but as the month continues, we would expect seasonal wavelengths to continue to adjust whereby the jet sinks further south. Tbh, assuming the blocking is strong enough, we need that Canadian energy spitting depressions into the Atlantic to provide the moisture which will deliver our snowfall !

I know you are commenting on what you see and the situation for the uk remains wet and chilly for the foreseeable. However, what the models actually show beyond a week are unreliable for any detail and as ever, we need to try and work out what will verify as opposed to what is shown. Tbh, anyone can look at the NWP and state what it shows. The secret is looking at the ens and spreads, together with experience of how the patterns usually evolve and making a prediction based on that. look at what we see in the reliable timeframe for later next week and compare to what the 10 day charts showed. I suspect you will find they have trended towards what Steve indicated rather than what the raw NWP ops showed at the time.

Incidentally, ECM day 10 chart the closest to what is now showing at day 6. Infact, it's a pretty good effort considering day 10 charts are normally quite poor.

Edited November 7, 2014 by bluearmy

[nick sussex]

I think one can look at the output one of two ways.

 

If you're a glass half empty type then its not up to much from a cold perspective and looks a bit of a stalemate at present.

 

If you're a glass half full type then you'll take comfort from the set up which means the route to cold doesn't need a scriptwriting team.

 

Last winters dismal attempt at cold didn't even leave the station!

 

I think Novembers a strange month in this thread, I can understand people begin to get a bit impatient, perhaps more so because as the majority are cold and snow lovers theres not been much to get excited about since 2012/13

 

I know people want to get on with things and see some real cold hit the UK but I think we're going to have to be patient, the current pattern is a slow burner which might need a few attempts re more favourable trough disruption  and a further southwards move in the jet before delivering.

 

Even if we take the ECM T240hrs at face value that would still need some time to develop into what people want to see, if the PV remains split and we see continued positive anomalies to the north then it's not a case of if but just when something more interesting comes along.

[bobbydog]

Smoke and mirrors then BA? While all are understandably looking for every iota of a chance of something cold developing, I can only see the main event which is a period of very unsettled and wet weather with a southerly displaced jet courtesy of the northern blocking.

Flooding could well become an issue again judging by some of the output and as I mentioned the other day, it's eerily reminiscent of the rain fest we endured last winter.

Hopefully it'll blow itself out in due course but at the moment we can see the LP train headed straight at us e.g. ECM 240hrs

The cold nascent vortex over N Canada spawning plenty of systems which are heading for us being nicely defeclted south by the beloved northern blocking!

When there is a 'realistic' sign of cold I'll ramp with the best believe me but I've seen many of these early season wonderful 'potential' hemispheric charts come to nought.

Not a popular take on things I know but just as I see it.

 

to be honest, i don't know why anyone is looking for something cold (as in disruptive snow events because that's really what 'we' mean when the word "cold" is used) at this point. i know i'm not. if it happens early then its a bonus.

 

as has been said, to the point where its becoming tedious to repeat it, its November.

i'm no expert but i can see clearly that the models are showing standard November weather, i.e. rain and wind for the near future. however, this is coming off the back of a Northern Hemispheric pattern which is far from 'standard' at this time of year.

 

e.g.

 

 

 

 

personally, i'm watching the models with great interest to see what these unusual charts bring us for winter (over 3 weeks away)

which brings me to the second point- i'll bet you haven't seen "many" charts (with cross model agreement) with potential like these are showing.

[Captain Shortwave]

@Bobbydog, to me it's not a case of the time of year (it is cold enough to deliver cold and snow to the UK if the synoptics are right). It's more a case that getting to the stage of cold will be a long one as at the present time the longwave pattern isn't conductive to bringing cold conditions to Europe and the UK. It will be a long road ahead but it does look possible if the conditions over the pole remain the same that we will get a chance further down the line.

ECM ens tonight

Blocking to our north and a cyclonic flow. Fairly average temperatures and quite wet sum up the UK profile.

To get cold we need to banish the heights over Europe allowing the Siberian lobe of the tropospheric vortex to link up with low pressure near the UK allow us to get on the cold side of the jet.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[carinthian]

Trying to jog my memory back to relate to similar set up to that I see now. Low heights over Hudson Bay and High over Scandinavia is not good news for cold weather fans in the UK. The winter Olympics in Norway 94 had wonderful winter conditions with snow and sub-zero temperatures, Canada in the great lakes region had some monster snowfalls, which I can remember on a visit to Toronto. We on the other hand in the UK had generally mild conditions with a fairly cold February. What I am saying is a cold winter in Scandinavia and Canada can go hand in hand with the UK in no mans land. True cold winters for our neck of the woods have to have high heights over NE Canada, Scandinavia and the Arctic cold pool digging well south into Russia. Presently , most models show no sign of this happening. Hope my theory is wrong though.

C

[ANYWEATHER]

To be honest, there is nothing really remotely wintry in the next ten days , unless youre talking about a few snowflakes over Snowdon or a few frosts here or there in which is a very unsettled spell of weather.  Thereafter it seem there is potential for much colder weather and against Steve Murrs  idea, Im really for the Gfs,,,,,,

Edited November 7, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[bobbydog]

@Bobbydog, to me it's not a case of the time of year (it is cold enough to deliver cold and snow to the UK if the synoptics are right). It's more a case that getting to the stage of cold will be a long one as at the present time the longwave pattern isn't conductive to bringing cold conditions to Europe and the UK. It will be a long road ahead but it does look possible if the conditions over the pole remain the same that we will get a chance further down the line.

ECM ens tonight

Blocking to our north and a cyclonic flow. Fairly average temperatures and quite wet sum up the UK profile.

To get cold we need to banish the heights over Europe allowing the Siberian lobe of the tropospheric vortex to link up with low pressure near the UK allow us to get on the cold side of the jet.

 

 

Totally agree. it could take a while but the pattern we're seeing now, gives us a very good fighting chance of seeing some proper winter weather at some point. The vortex is not winding itself up for a normal winter. the SAI, OPI, PDO etc, are on our side. It could come to nothing but we could be watching the 'sowing of the seeds' for something special.....

[Nick F]

Trying to jog my memory back to relate to similar set up to that I see now. Low heights over Hudson Bay and High over Scandinavia is not good news for cold weather fans in the UK. The winter Olympics in Norway 94 had wonderful winter conditions with snow and sub-zero temperatures, Canada in the great lakes region had some monster snowfalls, which I can remember on a visit to Toronto. We on the other hand in the UK had generally mild conditions with a fairly cold February. What I am saying is a cold winter in Scandinavia and Canada can go hand in hand with the UK in no mans land. True cold winters for our neck of the woods have to have high heights over NE Canada, Scandinavia and the Arctic cold pool digging well south into Russia. Presently , most models show no sign of this happening. Hope my theory is wrong though.

C

 

Hi C,

 

It's not been overwhelmingly exciting for cold lovers looking face value at the current/recent NWP output out to T+240. But the upper flow foundations are being laid for something colder later this month and perhaps into December, these foundations certainly are looking solid looking at medium range ensembles.

 

Certainly HP over Scandi in itself isn't going to guarantee cold will come our way with low pressure/upper torugh so close to the UK, but should we see retrogression of the wave pattern, then it may quickly become interesting for cold lovers, i.e. artic cold pool dropping down into NW Russia and then spreading SW as the Scandi retrogresses west. Can't see this happening until later in the month at the earliest though.

[winterof79]

Early days yet.Autumn still in full swing.

Here is a thing though....can anyone show me a better chart forecast for this time of year previously?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110712/ECH1-240.GIF?07-0

Edited November 7, 2014 by winterof79

[Barry12]

Not liking the look of the GFS 18z, 12z on the left for comparison

 

Edited November 7, 2014 by Barry95

[bluearmy]

some hints in the week 2 ens modelling that there is a chance of the cold making headway from our ne. the spread on 850's ecm day 10 has the cold now across the whole of scandi and well into eastern europe. the spread on naefs 850's has some cold runs just about reaching our shores by day 15. the back end of the ecm extended ens shows the siberian vortex beginning to edge west whilst the low heights drop out of eastern canada with weakish high anomolys taking over there.  for this all to become very relevant for us, we would need to see the weak high anomolys dropping out of south central europe and the western med. its a slow burner but its not impossible that by the last week of november, things may fall into place.