Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[bluearmy]

if we're banding around terms like 'crucial' on the 6th november, we'll never make it beyond xmas!!

 

tbh, the ens means are all solid on the height rise towards greenland. enough to deflect the jet to our south but no sign that the sceuro ridge will retrogress enough to allow the cold in through the back door as yet.

[Duane S.]

I think the next 12 hours could be crucial in terms of model output to decide whether there's momentum towards a build of pressure towards Greenland which have been hinted by developments in the Wave 1.

Nope, nothing 'crucial' about what occurs over the next 12 hours, 24 hours or 7 days. it is only the 6th of November and this is a slow burner. We have far more in our favour than against (complete contrast to this time last year), the fact we have Atlantic weather on our doorsteps right now is of little consequence to what may (or may not) occur later on in the month.

 

The simple fact of the matter is, notable cold spells are almost always preceded by a very unsettled spell. Obviously (and unfortunately) that doesn't mean however that most very unsettled spells in winter are suceeded by notable cold spells!!!  But in this instance I think we have a fair chance late on in the month

[Barry12]

GFS 18Z is slightly better at day 5, stronger heights over Scandi and the low further south.

 

 

144 hours is better as well

 

 

big differences at 168

 

Edited November 6, 2014 by Barry95

[Ali1977]

GFS P last very interesting at day 6

[Snowman.]

PARALLEL

 

18z:12z

[Ice Day]

A continuation of the theme at 180.............the PV is all over the place!

 

 

Slowly slowly catchy monkey!

Edited November 6, 2014 by Ice Day

[Barry12]

18z vs 12z at day 8

 

[Barry12]

Interesting day 10 chart on GFS

 

[Ali1977]

Ramp alert looking at the GFS P at only day 8...

[shaky]

Amazing 18z gfs/parallel runs!!if this keeps building then we could end up with a cold spell sooner than expected!!

[Snowman.]

Interesting day 10 chart on GFS

 

 

PV is kill.

 

But by then it's just overkill and were actually in a worse of position as the block to the east is just too strong.

[Snowman.]

18z is completely smashed.

 

 

 

I would eat a hat if this came off.

Edited November 6, 2014 by SN0WM4N

[easton888]

so are we missing out, even though we're getting our first wish? (smashed-up PV)

[Ali1977]

This place will be busy if these kind of charts are showing tomorrow

[Polar Maritime]

Can we stick to what the Models are showing please, Not just one liners.

 

Thanks,PM

Edited November 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[radiohead]

This pretty much says it all.

 

[Snowy L]

so are we missing out, even though we're getting our first wish? (smashed-up PV)

 

Yep, we'd be in the WAA zone. Just our luck.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Goodness gracious, fantasy land I know, but my heavens, Europe looks like heading into one heck of a freezer if the 18z keeps up the trend !!

[garbagebags]

[Man With Beard]

Crumbs where's that going - somewhere a bit colder than right now I imagine!

[Cheshire Freeze]

This pretty much says it all.

 

Looks like one of those crazy CFS monthly anomaly charts on Meteociel...the sort you look at as eye candy but know will never actually occur.

[johnholmes]

I know 1 or 2 well respected members don't believe in the use of 500mb anomaly charts and at the most one can only take the 8-14 day NOAA chart as the main guidance, although there is an output with NAEFS further out, but until they show at 8-14 and 3-4 days later still show and so does the 6-10 the trough working east of the UK then it is not likely to happen.

link to NOAA is below and the charts from EC-GFS are very similar.

If 3-4 days down the line and the trough is moved (on the 8-14 day chart) east of the UK with marked ridging as well as large +ve heights showing to fit this idea we can then pretty confidently believe this will happen. I believe 1 or 2 are suggesting something along that time scale for the synoptic models to start to show this in the same time frame.

We just have to wait and see. 2010 is being mentioned, it was only the last 6-8 days in that month that went really persistently cold with snow becoming fairly widespread, at least over central and eastern UK. That was well predicted by UK Met and fairly well 2 weeks ahead on the anomaly charts. Patience is needed with some of you IF a cold end to the month occurs. One thing to look for on the anomaly charts is for NO sign of marked +ve heights in the Aleutians area!

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

A sign of the excitement building for cold hopers is the number on here 228 as I type, only a few days ago if was 30-40 on line at once.

Edited November 6, 2014 by johnholmes

[Ali1977]

Think everyone is waiting to see what the GFS. P is going to give us, looks about to get v interesting at day 9

[radiohead]

Cold pool heading our way on the GFS(P) way out in FI ?

 

Edited November 6, 2014 by radiohead

[shaky]

Oh my god!!cold through the back door 10 days from now. ..........