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Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond


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There just seems to be too much energy exiting America at the moment and with high pressure sitting to our East unless we start seeing some undercutting, we're just going to stay in this rut of low pressure systems stalling to our West and not really doing anything

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PV does get organised although at the very end of FI it seems to start to break up again, maybe it will place better if it does...Run to Run changes are fairly dramatic in FI at the minute.

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The GFS P takes the stormy route, With a rather more disorganised PV. Yes Ali, Models are still awol at +144hr.

 

gfsnh-0-180.png?18

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Hard to take anything seriously with such a volatile set of outputs, however - you would say today has swung away from a good NH setup if it's cold your after. 

 

Let's hope the morning has something else to offer.

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The good news is the cold air is getting closer to us from Canada. So it is going after us.

 

h850t850eu.png

h850t850eu.png

The bad news is milder air wins at the end.

 

h850t850eu.png

:(

EEKK....

Isn't that what happened last year at this stage with all the cold air streaming across the Atlantic directly at us causing the extreme cyclogenisis.

Iknow the northern hemisphere profile looks different but if we go down this route many people will get very worried. 

MIA

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The good news is the cold air is getting closer to us from Canada. So it is going after us.

 

h850t850eu.png

h850t850eu.png

The bad news is milder air wins at the end.

 

h850t850eu.png

:(

Unless you live on top of a mountain that cold air from Canada would bring nothing but relentless rain.

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So here we are. Its spin cycle UKMO AND GFS against the sinking out puts from ECM. Who is going to be right ? GFS have swapped and changed, UKMO consistent as have ECM who are sticking to their guns . Have a horrible feeling ECM will soon start to back the UKMO. Not what most want. Maybe tomorrow will throw some light on proceedings. Getting worried over here with the continued southerly warmth. Ski - season due to start in 3 weeks !

C

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Understand some people's negativity towards the models but in a reliable'ish timeframe out to 192hrs it's not too bad. No point looking at t300 and seeing the european high and a raging vortex over Greenland and taking it as gospel, it's a possibility as we all know but don't get too negative about stuff that's way out of a reliable timeframe.

Also ref: the strat thread is getting interesting now, signs that higher up things might be starting to fall into place also.

Edited by Weathizard
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I think the lack of posts this morning sums up the model output this morning. Gfs looking very wet right out to t384 think the ECM is out on its own. And ukmo looks a lot like gfs early on. Until we see any sign of cold on ukmo think we can just expect more Atlantic weather heading our way.

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With the models continuing to show ne American cold,i fear it will be hard for us to get cold and snow to our shores.This due to feeding the jet exiting the states like last year!

Thats of course if the gfs and ukmo are on the money.Frustrating times ahead i fear.

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Gfs wants to relocate the major part of the vortex to the Canadian side. ECM doesn't seem to be going down that route at this stage. either way, we can only see to around the 20th November at the moment. even a strengthening p/v will come under more pressure in a few weeks once the knock on effect of the current upper strat warmings are visible in the trop.

That would be the 6th time this autumn that the GFS has tried to do that this autumn - it was wrong the previous 5 times, so without support from ECM that's still a big if - it might have more of a chance this time with the development of the PV now seasonally favoured - either way, rain will be the main issue for the next 10 days at least.

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7TH 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION
. A series of fronts with strong Southerly winds ahead of them will cross East over the UK today and tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Generally unsettled and rather windy at times with rain or showers. Temperatures look like staying generally quite close to average though it will feel rather chilly at times. Perhaps becoming drier and milder in the South later.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to show the flow crossing East over the Atlantic near to 50 deg North over the coming two weeks. This means the UK will be on the Northern side of the flow before it trends just very slightly North over Southern Britain at the end of the prediction.

GFS OPERATIONAL Today's operational run shows the UK being home to complex Low pressure feeding in from the NW Atlantic and settling over or just to the NW of the UK. The net result would be spells of rain and showers with just brief drier and brighter spells, more particularly for a period at the start of Week 2 as something of a ridge develops for a time across the South. By the end of the run we are back to square 1 with a strong West flow over the Atlantic under a deep low to the NW with rain bearing troughs crossing East over the UK in average temperatures throughout.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run suggests little difference from the operational in Week 1 but moves forward to indicate somewhat more influence of High pressure either as a ridge from High pressure to the East or the South with less rainfall as a result and perhaps a little more in the way of frost and fog patches briefly. Overall though the pattern remains an Atlantic driven pattern though.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles also complimentary to their other runs in respect to the favoured option being Low pressure coming in from the West frequently and becoming slow moving over or just to the West of the UK with much rain and showers in strong and blustery winds as a result. The Ensembles also shows a tendency to rise pressure over Southern Britain late in the period with drier weather with overnight mist and fog possibilities replacing the wind and rain that will continue in the far North and West

UKMO UKMO today shows a deep Low pressure area moving ESE over the Atlantic to lie just West of Ireland by midweek with an unstable and strong Southerly flow over the UK carrying spells of heavy rain or thundery showers North and NE across the UK in temperatures close to average.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows a series of fronts and depressions moving gently East across the UK over the next 5 days with rain and showers at times in sometimes strong and blustery winds from between South and West though these are shown to decrease early next week.

GEM GEM looks very disturbed this morning with a procession of Low pressure and fronts moving across the Atlantic and setting up shop just to the West of Ireland and pushing troughs East across the UK with heavy rain and showers for all in often strong and blustery winds and average temperatures.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows active Low pressure moving in towards NW Ireland at the start of next week with strong SW winds and rain as a result being all too common throughout the run this morning.

JMA JMA is not fully issued at time of publish but the first 5 days show a similar pattern to the rest as Low pressure from the NW dominates the UK weather with rain and showers in average temperatures.

ECM ECM feeds Low pressure down the Western side of the UK next week with strong South or SW winds and heavy rain at times as a result. It then takes the Lows back north and migrates the deep centres further to the NW than early in the run which allows pressure to rise somewhat in the South with the heaviest rain and strongest winds returning towards the North and West with the chance of some drier spells in the South and East in temperatures never far from average and perhaps a shade above in the South later.

THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles are basically unchanged from recent runs and shows a more defined trough than the operational stretching from Greenland to the British Isles and down to Italy which indicates a continuation of unsettled weather with rain at times for all throughout the next 10 days.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for a sustained period of wet weather across the UK with a slow trend later perhaps towards drier conditions moving into Southern and SE parts later with no cold weather shown by any model.

MY THOUGHTS The main concern illustrated by the models this morning is the rather persistent Low pressure lying slow moving over or near the UK with the cumulative effect of heavy rainfall events through the period covered by the models. All models usher in Low pressure from the NW and stalling close to the UK with each bringing strong winds and heavy rain and showers as result. With winds illustrated mainly from a South or SW quarter temperatures will not be an issue with average temperatures as a result on most days. The only chink of light this morning is the chance of a rise of pressure across the South later in week 2 with rather drier and relatively mild weather as a result should this verify. The ECM operational is the leader in this aspect which is a reversal on the Northern blocking that was shown by it yesterday and this morning's offering is closer to a GFS type solution though this solution is less supported by it's own ensemble pack. However, with so much volatility over the Atlantic and Low pressure steered towards the UK on a slightly further South Jet Stream than the norm predictions beyond a week should be treated tentatively at this time but as it stands this morning the UK is unlikely to experience any cold weather this side of the last week of the month as some of the building blocks hinted at early in the week have taken an early collapse and the shift towards rising pressure over parts of Europe has grown.

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So here we are. Its spin cycle UKMO AND GFS against the sinking out puts from ECM. Who is going to be right ? GFS have swapped and changed, UKMO consistent as have ECM who are sticking to their guns . Have a horrible feeling ECM will soon start to back the UKMO. Not what most want. Maybe tomorrow will throw some light on proceedings. Getting worried over here with the continued southerly warmth. Ski - season due to start in 3 weeks !

C

Yep ,as I expected, ECM has come on board with the UKMO Atlantic spin cycle . a lot of rain next week, particularly the south and west and transferring to the Northwest into the following week with temperatures returning to the mild side. The UKMO have stuck with this forecast for some time. Still its still only Autumn and hopefully cold charts will follow. Back in our part of the world, central Europe continues to remain mild or exceptionally so in places. Worried about whether the start of the season is now going to happen. Our 14 day forecast indicates little joy there. I hate Euro high , no good for you and no good to us at this time of year . I pray for a good old fashioned Scandinavian Block that delivers cold for all, remember them ?

C

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Completely agree with the comments from SSIB and BA this morning and I concur, having checked the date, my calender also suggests we're still in the first week of November. But of course we're fast approaching pantomime season here on the model thread and as per usual some members will be wanting to stage NWs own version of One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest, on these very pages.

 

I would suggest any member thinking of hitting the Prozac already could do no worse than return to page 14 of this thread and read Snowking's superb post, as has been said by other members, surely one of the most well reasoned and sensible posts written on here in the past few years.

 

Problem is we live in a fast food culture with the expectation that all our wants should be delivered yesterday, (and that includes cold and wintry synoptics). To my eye this mornings models are still showing the combo meal of negative heights over the Aleutian area with positive heights over Scandinavia/Europe, with a juicy long fetch southerly flow, all very much to the forefront on Cohen's SAI menu. The rather unpalatable Hors D'oeuvres may well mean a mild and wet spell that we may need to endure for at least some of November before any chance of a wintry feast being delivered to our shores. 

 

Patience is a word that could well feature prominently in this thread as we progress further into November but unfortunately doesnt seem to figure in some members vocabulary.

 

Regards,

Tom.

 

Very much this. People should have a skim through the archive charts for Nov 2009 for an illustration. E.g.

 

archivesnh-2009-11-20-0-0.png

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Can we please try and stick to what that Models are showing, Whilst some posts are informative they are bordering being moved to the Winter/Hopes/ramps thread.

OK the 6z is rolling out with interest, Please continue.

 

Many Thanks, PM.

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GFS P continues to show a cool/wet flow from the N/W, With a deep cut-off Low still Model'd to sit over the UK around the 15th. With the N/W flow continuing into the end of the run, The Jet pushing way South of the UK and a continued disorganised PV, A cool Atlantic driven Pm/Rpm theme continues with a very meridional Jet. 

 

gfsnh-0-192.png?6gfsnh-0-312.png?6gfsnh-5-336.png?6

Edited by Polar Maritime
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