Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[Bobby]

Looking at the ensembles this morning a build of high pressure settling things down for the S/SE looks to be low probability with unsettled weather for most dominant. Although as typical in a zonal setup, the most unsettled weather to the NW/W and driest to the SE. NAEFS, GEM day 12. ECM day 10 means

 

   

 

ECM day 10, NAEFS day 12 pressure anomalies

 

 

 

The vortex is getting organised at day 10 although not raging, similar picture on the NAEFS at the end

 

 

ECM making most out of the block to the NE although it is fading with time, so I imagine if the ECM went further the block would be further weakened.

 

Not a great outlook for cold for the forseeable. For winter cold, we may have to actually wait until winter starts in 2 weeks time before the possibility opens up. Better this weather now than in a few weeks/months. No big deal in the big picture..

Edited November 14, 2014 by Bobby

[bluearmy]

Deepest FI so don't take it seriously but the PV on the GFS para just clips northern Scotland, although not overly cold at that stage the fact that the PV is still not forming like last year remains a positive

 

 

 

To clarify gav - thats not the p/v. its just a deep low. surface thicknesses above 528 dam. the p/v still in siberia and less so over ne canada/greenland

[knocker]

We had brief digression yesterday discussing the tropopause being below 500mb in Dakota on the 12th and possible Tropopause Folding. Had a quick look at the 12z sounding at Rapid City and it does look like it's at 550mb.Well that's got that off my chest.

 

[knocker]

The 1534 has relented from it's rather unlikely position at 00 but still a snapshot of WAA. My head is below the parapet

 

[Paul]

Latest from Michael Fish:

 

https://vimeo.com/111841436

[Man With Beard]

The 1534 has relented from it's rather unlikely position at 00 but still a snapshot of WAA. My head is below the parapet

That's a monster warm anomaly. A good day for a country walk if the sun gets out.

Aside a few days of weak easterlies across midland / northern areas, the pattern looks to remain as it has been for what feels like an age - heights to the east, lows not quite making landfall on the UK, resulting in a long mild draw. Another above average CET month beckons.

[knocker]

Out of interest today's temp anomaly

 

[Paul]

Not sure if this has been mentioned at all, but the GFS upgrade has been pushed to January sometime....

[IDO]

Out of interest today's temp anomaly

 

 

Yes despite the cold shot the CET currently stands at +1.5c. Not only have we missed the cold pool we have hit the warm pool. Looking at the upcoming pattern, it is not inconceivable, despite all this talk of cold, November could go close to being the warmest month of the year, in a record breaking year

 

JMA update for the next 3 months is through, however I don't want to rub salt into the wound so I best not comment, though "patience" may be the watchword for this winter, if it is close to verification.

[Gael_Force]

The 1534 has relented from it's rather unlikely position at 00 but still a snapshot of WAA. My head is below the parapet

 

GFS still having in-house clashes of opinion - the 2 metre temp anomaly on the regular GFS has a negative anomaly for the same time scale.

 

[blizzard81]

For all those still thinking the Scandi ridge will be more resilient than the models are predicting, well the trend over the last 24hrs says to me that ship has sailed. The ECM has been the main culprit in giving false hope of a more robust block to our north east. I seem to remember that it was guilty of exactly the same thing last winter. I lost count of how many times the ECM showed undercuts and pressure falling over Europe from 192hrs onwards only for it to never verify. I wonder why pressure remains so stubbornly high over Europe during our winters ?

[shaky]

Slow slow push West of the high pressure on each and every gfs run!! Once again another push west on the 12z run and at a early timeframe but in the end will it make a difference! ?

[knocker]

GFS still having in-house clashes of opinion - the 2 metre temp anomaly on the regular GFS has a negative anomaly for the same time scale.

 

 

I know it was the same on the last run. I'm very much inclined towards the ops version.

[492]

12Z UKMO has stronger block to NE at T+96 than 24 hrs ago.

[TSNWK]

12Z UKMO has stronger block to NE at T+96 than 24 hrs ago.

You would think that is good news! But some are minded to say it is not and we need to get rid... Thoughts anyone!

[karlos1983]

UKMO doesn't want to let the Atlantic in

With cooler 850's heading west

 

Didn't see that coming from UKMO must admit.

Edited November 14, 2014 by karlos1983

[Barry12]

For all those still thinking the Scandi ridge will be more resilient than the models are predicting, well the trend over the last 24hrs says to me that ship has sailed. The ECM has been the main culprit in giving false hope of a more robust block to our north east. I seem to remember that it was guilty of exactly the same thing last winter. I lost count of how many times the ECM showed undercuts and pressure falling over Europe from 192hrs onwards only for it to never verify. I wonder why pressure remains so stubbornly high over Europe during our winters ?

 

Are you sure?

 

[shaky]

Well well not only had both the gfs runs backed West but the ukmo has gone way West! ! Infact so much west that we getting cooler 850s from the continent at 144 hours!! Nothing too cold but still chilly nonetheless! !

[karlos1983]

UKMO and GFS not a million miles away from each other at 144 it has to be said

 

[joggs]

Whilst the sceuro high is there in this set up,get rid imo.The models only showing a very slow decline in the high.And with the cold over ne states/canada imo 95 times out of 100 the lows are not going to undercut.At the moment if its cold your after we need something to give,the quicker the better.Reset the pattern because the wave breaking events look like been unhelpful.Also the vortex been better for cold chances this year,but the stubburness of the can/ne states vortex cuts retrogression ov for me anytime soon.

Edited November 14, 2014 by joggs

[phil nw.]

A bit of a delay in bringing that Canadian trough se into the Atlantic around T144hrs.

UKMO especially wants to build a mid latitude high somewhere around  UK/W.Europe,something i was pondering  last night after seeing the 12z ECM op.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014111412/UN144-21.GIF?14-17.

 

Something a bit more palatable than a resurgent Atlantic anyway.

[gottolovethisweather]

12Z UKMO has stronger block to NE at T+96 than 24 hrs ago.

 

Yes and by the the end of this run, the period between the 19th and 20th November suggests a very different setup to what might have been previously imagined. This timeframe now between at t+120 to t+144 hours remains the watch period (for whatever reason) and is far from nailed.   Forget analysing surface details behind this point would be my advice.

Edited November 14, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[IDO]

The MJO signal was to build a MLB close to the UK in the first week of December, so nice to see this possibility earlier: 

 

Both GFS op and P kill the ScEuro high so little change there and that allows the omnipresent Azores/Atlantic ridge to build into the UK rather than the upper ridge over Europe. Certainly this scenario is even less likely to bring cold to the UK in the medium term, but given a choice of UK HP with the Atlantic on a SW to NE trajectory, or a westerly Atlantic, tonight's output will do it for me.

D16: 

 

 

[Paul]

Not sure if this has been mentioned at all, but the GFS upgrade has been pushed to January sometime....

Jan 7th is the latest date for it.

[johnholmes]

Jan 7th is the latest date for it.

thanks for that Paul, did they give any indication why? The parallel, if it is that, on the 500mb statistics for 6 days suggests it is doing much better than the original?

Edited November 14, 2014 by johnholmes