Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[SMU]

Evening All-

 

Ive had limited time & access today - however in my eyes phase 1 of this evolution is pretty nailed - with High pressure over Scandi & orientated towards Greenland

 

There after an array of solutions offered by all the models, however the key theme for me is that the blocking continues & the apparent 'queue' of pressure that wants to build towards Greenland.
ECM tonight has thrown something in the mix that I would call a spoiler low & the trajectory is out of kilter with most runs-

 

As you can see the ECM has moved it under the southern tip of Greenland, most solutions like the JMA are NW of Greenland

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014111012/JN120-21.GIF?10-12

So I am discarding tonights ECM based on the consensus.... until this is resolved the model output will be variable-

 

I commented around 7-8 days ago to expect a pattern change around the 14th & that's coming to fruition, however the UK hasn't really seen the effects of this because the wave pattern has orientated for cold to Eurasia & the Central US.

 

With this apparent 'queue' of high pressure developments seemingly trying to ridge to Greenland ( it is noted on ALL runs ) Im certain that its only a matter of time in the 7-10 timeframe that this then swings the wave pattern to drive the cold west out of Eurasia into Northern Europe with the UK on the periphery with a large cone of variability in terms of what could land on our doorstep.

 

We could get the full bifta - Raging NE / E winds, equally if the CAA out of Russia doesn't have the oomph to get through Europe it will mean the trough alignment could favour lower heights over Biscay pumping warmer air NW out of Africa...

 

The bit in the middle ( often seen on the 850's as the 0c line) will be the line on the sand if you like - the border between cold & warm air.

 

Where to look on the models-

 

this is 2010 chart that set the memorable cold spell going 4 years ago-

 

   Note the near VERTICAL advection over Greenland, remember though it doesn't need to be that acute, If the vertical is 0 degrees then any advection of that magnitude that's less than 30 Degrees will work.

This was around 15 degrees

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1962/archivesnh-1962-12-25-12-0.png

 

Heres the ECM 240

As we see good strong vertical advection- but could happen before that if the shortwave spoiler goes the WEST of Greenland.

 

Other notables.-

GEM day 8

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014111012/gemnh-0-204.png?12

JMA Day 6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014111012/JN144-21.GIF?10-12

UKMO Day 6 ( similar to JMA)

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014111012/UN144-21.GIF?10-17

NAVGEM Day 8

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014111012/navgemnh-0-168.png?10-18

The best GFS run of the day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=6&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

 

If I was pushed I think THIS chart looks fairly close for day 8 & is my current forecast. ( so for the 18th Nov give or take 12 hours either side)

 

 

Something for everyone in that chart- ................

 

regards

S

Edited November 10, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Purga]

Still consistent ENS showing above average temps (850hPa) and very unsettled with only the odd colder run in La la land. No cold runs at all (except one tiny blip) in the reliable timeframe

 

Very cold air pouring off N America according to ECM at day 10 - that'll power up the jet BA - it's called the 'lag' and won't happen immediately!

Edited November 10, 2014 by Purga

[Robbie Garrett]

GFS 120hrs out on 10th November 2010 showed this.

 

 

And this is what we got.

 

 

 

It wasn't until the 14th that we started to see something like this come into fruition.

 

 

 

Consider that low pressure to our South West and what it does on the 15th, and have a look at the Scandinavian high. Heights building over Greenland, watch for the link up of the Azores with Greenland. It's not as simple as that but if the Jet across Iberia remains the same and the other half follows the Vortex lobe over Canada into the Arctic then I'd suggest Greenland heights building near the 20th November, but the other way looks to be High pressure over the UK.

 

I think the 2014 picture looks far easier to a blocked NH than the 2010 route. What happens this weekend with regards to the building of heights is what will likely effect the last two weeks of November. 

 

 

 

I see no major difference between the 120hr forecast in 2010 for the 14th of November and today's 120hr forecast for the 10th of November. Literally no major differences.  Reading what Steve Murr has put, it's of similar thoughts to me - Day 8-10 looks interesting.

Edited November 10, 2014 by Robbie Garrett

[kimb]

Still consistent ENS showing above average temps (850hPa) and very unsettled with only the odd colder run in La la land. No cold runs at all (except one tiny blip) in the reliable timeframe

 

Very cold air pouring off N America according to ECM at day 10 - that'll power up the jet BA - it's called the 'lag' and won't happen immediately!

 

That's what I was looking at this morning on the GFS, and would tie in with the METO forecast for Westerlies returning by the end of the 15 day period.

[nick sussex]

That's a fantastic way to explain the ECM tonight Nick. I find the wording in your posts very entertaining. I agree, the ECM looks messy post 144hrs.

Thanks I've always wanted to be the Andre Agassi of the model discussion rather than lets say the Pete Sampras! lol

 

I do tend to become rather over theatrical at times as many in here will possibly testify to!

[SMU]

GFS 120hrs out on 10th November 2010 showed this.

 

And this is what we got.

 

 

It wasn't until the 14th that we started to see something like this come into fruition.

 

 

 

 

Consider that low pressure to our South West and what it does on the 15th, and have a look at the Scandinavian high. Heights building over Greenland, watch for the link up of the Azores with Greenland. It's not as simple as that but if the Jet across Iberia remains the same and the other half follows the Vortex lobe over Canada into the Arctic then I'd suggest Greenland heights building near the 20th November, but the other way looks to be High pressure over the UK.

 

I think the 2014 picture looks far easier to a blocked NH than the 2010 route. What happens this weekend with regards to the building of heights is wht will likely effect the last two weeks of November. 

 

 

 

I see no major difference between the 120hr forecast in 2010 for the 14th of November and today's 120hr forecast for the 10th of November. Literally no major differences.  Reading what Steve Murr has put, it's of similar thoughts to me - Day 8-10 looks interesting.

 

Cheers Robbie-  I think we are on the same page ish!-

 

PS

I flew on concorde on a charter flight when I was 8 or 9 @ Mach 2.- on my own!!!!!

Edited November 10, 2014 by Steve Murr

[NorthernRab]

Still consistent ENS showing above average temps (850hPa) and very unsettled with only the odd colder run in La la land. No cold runs at all (except one tiny blip) in the reliable timeframe

 

Very cold air pouring off N America according to ECM at day 10 - that'll power up the jet BA - it's called the 'lag' and won't happen immediately!

Focusing on 850hPa temps doesn't give the whole picture though. Many of the ensembles are pointing towards high pressure as we approach the latter half of the month. Even with 850 hPa temps above average, this would lead to widespread frost, fog and ice, certainy feeling below and not above average on re surface!

[ANYWEATHER]

The blocking pattern to the North or Northeast of the Uk seems quite resolute tonight, with both ecm and gfs showing something slightly similar; I have to urge you coldie fans that not to take any notice of the upper temperature right now even if we get a raging east or northeasterly in ten days time and show something milder. Its early days at present and there will be a lot of variation from the models and given how early it is in the season , bitter cold aka November 2010 is very rare. The blocking pattern is tremendous given this time of year, but don't count your chickens before they hatch is this situation. I leave you with the blocked pattern from gfs and ecm at day seven and ten......    

[johnholmes]

the latest Met O winter model output is below NOT a forecast from them, just the basic computer output for Dec-Feb.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

No doubt this will cause some discussion given the view that most model outputs out to normal synoptic range and some that go further show what appears to be a different idea?

 

admin/mods - if you feel this should be moved to the winter thread then please do so. There is already a copy in the technical area.

Edited November 10, 2014 by johnholmes

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens

We never really get the cross polar flow in our favour. If anything we are starting to trend back towards our current pattern with higher heights to the east and an Atlantic trough with a resulting southerly flow. Could be a case for a drier second half of November with heights over Europe starting to take command. If it builds close enough then we could get some chilly and frosty weather.

Still at this range there is plenty of time for change. I would also add that the GFS ensembles out to day 16 continue to hold the dominant lobe of the tropospheric vortex over the Siberian side. 

Edited November 10, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

Still consistent ENS showing above average temps (850hPa) and very unsettled with only the odd colder run in La la land. No cold runs at all (except one tiny blip) in the reliable timeframe

 

Very cold air pouring off N America according to ECM at day 10 - that'll power up the jet BA - it's called the 'lag' and won't happen immediately!

That's odd purga - you haven't been keen to use the day 10 ECM op for the last few days. Why suddenly now?

[MR EXTREMES]

the latest Met O winter model output is below NOT a forecast from them, just the basic computer output for Dec-Feb.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

No doubt this will cause some discussion given the view that most model outputs out to normal synoptic range and some that go further show what appears to be a different idea?

 

admin/mods - if you feel this should be moved to the winter thread then please do so. There is already a copy in the technical area.

O dear well at least February looks below !

Say like 2008 winter jan and feb

[Robbie Garrett]

Cheers Robbie-  I think we are on the same page ish!-

 

PS

I flew on concorde on a charter flight when I was 8 or 9 @ Mach 2.- on my own!!!!!

 

Yeah definitely. My only concern is the Jetstream, it's quite far south on the 12z 10th output. But is it to powerful to allow WAA towards Greenland.

 

 

Here it is on the ironically similar 12z 14th 2010 output.

 

 

 

Needs to move into this position, but that will only show with a weaker CA Lobe?

 

 

 

How was the Concorde journey? When/Where to/from? 

Edited November 10, 2014 by Robbie Garrett

[Mucka]

 

 

That mean for the 18th is pretty close to what Steve posted (JMA) as to what he expects.

I would prefer to see everything a little further West but I expect this won't be far off.

[Banbury]

The GFS 3D model is very impressive , just been looking at the jet stream and where it wanders.

[bobbydog]

sorry mods, this is very off topic but i thought everyone might like to know, the OPI forecast is out-

 

http://app.til.it/opi/

 

and its very interesting.....

 

 

(good for comparison to what the models are showing though)

Edited November 10, 2014 by bobbydog

[Tom Jarvis]

sorry mods, this is very off topic but i thought everyone might like to know, the OPI forecast is out-

 

http://app.til.it/opi/

 

and its very interesting.....

 

 

(good for comparison to what the models are showing though)

Sounds very promising for this winter indeed.

[A.J]

sorry mods, this is very off topic but i thought everyone might like to know, the OPI forecast is out-

 

http://app.til.it/opi/

 

and its very interesting.....

 

 

(good for comparison to what the models are showing though)

appreciate the heads up BD......a timely reminder to members that there is a dedicated thread to the OPI so best to leave OPI related posts to that thread....cheers

[shaky]

Both the gfs ans gfs parallel have picked up on a shortwave running across the south of greenland on this run!! If that's there tomorrow you can say goodbye to a good split for now!! Gfs is amazing at picking up these shortwaves so doubt its wrong! !

[nick sussex]

A poor trend developing on the models is the reluctance to clear away low heights which remain attached to Greenland, the trough disruption is not going in the right direction and you can see the big impact this has by comparing the earlier 12hrs GFS and GFS P with their 18hrs runs upto T144hrs.

 

I don't mean to bore everyone to tears with this issue but it really causes problems because the ridge cant extend further west, the ECM sounded the alarm bells on its 12hrs by leaving that shortwave in southern Greenland.

 

It's not terminal because the upstream pattern still remains quite amplified but its just another unwelcome hurdle, as we saw from the ECM it makes things more complicated.

[blizzard81]

Both the gfs ans gfs parallel have picked up on a shortwave running across the south of greenland on this run!! If that's there tomorrow you can say goodbye to a good split for now!! Gfs is amazing at picking up these shortwaves so doubt its wrong! !

Yeah, see steve murr's post on previous page - post 1103. ECM 12z first to pick up this shortwave. Uncanny how they seem to pop up out of nowhere at just the wrong time!

[SMU]

It shows the fine margins we are operating on this week-

 

the 18z operational is going to be poor, ( well relative ) the 18z(p) is going to be a lot better.....

 

Don't put any of either run being right except blocking to rule the roost!

[SMU]

The shortwave spoiler is due to move north west from the SE as a spin off shortwave, its not what I first thought & isn't as bad as I first presumed.....

thanks

[shaky]

It shows the fine margins we are operating on this week-

 

the 18z operational is going to be poor, ( well relative ) the 18z(p) is going to be a lot better.....

 

Don't put any of either run being right except blocking to rule the roost!

hopefully the dream charts come back tomorrow steve!! If not then oh well we got the rest of December january and February to go lol!!

The shortwave spoiler is due to move north west from the SE as a spin off shortwave, its not what I first thought & isn't as bad as I first presumed.....

thanks

does that make it any better or doesn't affect the split at all!!judging from the 18z it takes a little longer for the split to occur!!

[SMU]

Its in post #1103 the spoiler...

 

S