Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[Barry12]

I'm dreaming of, if we discount the ECM because it's on it's own at day 10, then surely we discount the GEFs at day 16? If the GEFS at day 16 showed a raging Easterly would you believe it?

[Duane S.]

So this will be the SEVENTH time that the GFS has tried to build a strong PV since the start of October. Current success rate: 0 out of 6. 7th time lucky? (and I really do mean 'lucky')

 

Indeed. Scrabbling around at D10 - D16 to find charts to show a 'building vortex' actually show what a good state things are currently in for early - mid Novemer. Long may it continue!

[mountain shadow]

the first charts i view every morning are the anomaly charts, because as john holmes has championed, when they are in consistent agreement then they are pretty accurate (about 80% i think the figue was) of being right 6-14 days ahead.

 

so

 

610day.03.gif 814day.03.gif

 

test8.gif

 

are in and have been in consistent agreement, so charts like these from the gfs and ecm @t168 look accurate.

 

Rpgfs1682.gif Recm1682.gif

 

further out though is where both models struggle, and this chart the ecm 12z @t240 simply cannot happen as long as the anomaly charts stay as they are. nor do they currently allow for a deep easterly. they might change, but until they do....

 

Recm2402.gif

 

the gfs in deep fi continues to suggest highs to our northeast

 

Rtavn3842.gif

 

but as the uppers show, even cold looking surface charts often arent. (i use the 850's instead of surface... they do give a clearer picture of likely temp profiles)

ignore the agreeing anomaly charts at your peril....

Mushy, those anomaly charts show above average heights to the North of the Uk though, do they not?. This would what we should expect if we want a Northerly or Easterly?

In terms of the ECM consistency, I have never known the ECM to be wrong after so many runs showing the same thing. Yes, the ECM throws up the odd BOOM chart, but normally a one run thing.

As ever, more runs required.

[bluearmy]

Not much to note on the ECM ens mean and spreads. More of the same within t240. The spreads indicate a desire to drive the Atlantic depressions on a more southerly track though the 850's are not showing any deep cold headed in our direction as yet. if may be that the ECM op is barking up the right tree, but just a bit too progressive at this juncture. We could be looking at quite a large area of cold high heights across from Iceland to scandi. On the other hand ......

[Purga]

Not much to note on the ECM ens mean and spreads. More of the same within t240. The spreads indicate a desire to drive the Atlantic depressions on a more southerly track though the 850's are not showing any deep cold headed in our direction as yet. if may be that the ECM op is barking up the right tree, but just a bit too progressive at this juncture. We could be looking at quite a large area of cold high heights across from Iceland to scandi. On the other hand ......

Whilst we are stuck in very mild uppers being drawn up fron Africa 'eh BA....

[Ali1977]

I think we just need to see what this evenings ECM chart throws up to see where it's going, if it trends away from NB again then maybe not so good. The next GFS rolls soon, fingers crossed this goes more towards last nights ECM. 

Edited November 9, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove off topic material.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please leave the Meto outlook for another thread.

 

Thanks, PM.

[Cloud 10]

The GEFS are finally latching on to a deep cold pool to our far NE,so ear muffs at the ready for Muscovite's from mid month onwards.

 

 

 

I'm a bit confused about the "air sourced from Africa" comment a few posts up,and will have to

have another look at a map of the world....

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY NOVEMBER 9TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE MONDAY NOVEMBER 10TH 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A slack and cyclonic Westerly flow covers the UK today. Winds back Southerly and strengthen tomorrow as an active front edges slowly East across the UK.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Unsettled with rain at times across the British Isles with strong winds too and temperatures near to normal. perhaps becoming a little colder and drier from the North later.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow continuing to be forced to a position to the South of Britain over the next week keeping the UK in a cyclonic flow. Later in the period the flow splits into two with a Northern and Southern arm, the latter weakening and ridging North over and around the British Isles later in Week 2 and linking with the Northern arm over Iceland and Northern Scandinavia.

GFS OPERATIONAL Today's GFS operational run shows the UK continue to see areas of Low pressure crossing the Atlantic and into the UK from the West where they become slow moving and fill slowly bbringing spells of rain, heavy at times along with strong winds in average temperatures. Through the period the desire to build pressure from the North remains and succeeds through week 2 with winds switching Easterly and bringing further rain at times to the South and drier conditions near High pressure close to the North later. Temperatures would probably fall to a little below average in this new setup.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run carries the same sequence of events though differs in Week 2 by collapsing High pressure to the North SE over Europe and cutting off any route to colder and prolonged drier conditions for the UK as well as bringing the UK back under attack of Atlantic Low pressure from the West and SW later with it's subsequent wind and rainfall.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES.  The GFS Ensembles are broadly similar in message with a wet first week under slow moving UK Low pressure being forced South in Week 2 in rising pressure from the North and NE with an ESE flow developing with drier and chillier weather as a result, chiefly in the North and East. Low pressure over the Atlantic will continue to run up against this block centred over Europe by then and keep the risk of rain and strong SE winds going for the South and West.

UKMO. UKMO today shows Low pressure deep and persistent out to the West and NW of the UK through this week with spells of rain and heavy, thundery showers going into next weekend in relatively mild conditions.

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts show a series of occlusions and showery troughs edging slowly East across the UK through this week each bringing their own variety of wind, rain and thundery showers across the UK all connected around deep Low pressure anchored to the West of Ireland.

GEM  GEM shows Low pressure in total control of the UK weather over the next week spinning in from the West towards SW Britain with heavy rain and showers at times as a result in average temperatures if not somewhat mild in places. Later on pressure rises over Northern Europe and a SE wind setsup with Low pressure then to the SW with further rain here at times while Northern and Eastern parts become drier and less mild.

NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps Low pressure in complete domination over the UK through next week with the main centre out to the NW next weekend with showers or longer spells of rain in relatively mild and strong South or SW winds for all as a result.

ECM  ECM this morning shows unsettled and relatively mild weather over the next week with rain and showers, heaviest and most prolific across Southern and Western areas. Over next weekend and the following week pressure is shown to rise to the North and NE with winds switxhing towards an Easterly point as well as being quite strong. Although feeling colder temperatures will only fall modestly and with Low pressure still entrained across the Atlantic to the South and SW further rain at times looks like it would edge up into Southern Britain at times too in the mostly cloudy flow.

THE ECM ENSEMBLES   The ensembles point to a continuation of broadly unsettled weather with rain at times across the UK in average temperatures and a SE flow as Low pressure continues to stretch from Southern Greenland to the SW of the UK. Some of the rain will be heavy and winds look like continuing quite strong at times. Pressure remains High to the NE of the UK at that time.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today still shows a chance of High pressure developing to the North and NE bringing drier conditions to the North and East in Week 2 with slightly colder weather.

MY THOUGHTS  The synoptic pattern over the UK and surrounding waters remain very complex over the next few weeks. The UK remains in the firing line for deep Low pressure moving across the Atlantic and stalling near our shores through this week with rain and showers for all areas as a result and it will stay generally windy and relatively mild. I guess the interest for many occurs from around next weekend when pressure builds strongly to the North and NE of Britain and this theme is shared by all output. This then forces Low pressure out of Britain and to the South and SW with a SE or East flow likely to develop across the UK in some shape or form through week 2. This would normally introduce much colder and potentially wintry weather to the UK but this looks unlikely as Europe remains much milder than average and the orientation of such High pressure does not permit any interaction with cold Arctic air as things are shown currently plus of course we are still very early into the Winter Season. So due to all these factors the most likely pattern to evolve will be of a chillier East or SE wind bringing drier conditions to North and East Britain but with a lot of cloud and the brightest conditions towards areas such as West Scotland on the leeward side of high ground. It also looks like Low pressure will never be far away from the South and SW and the desire to pull this back across the UK late in the period is hinted at by some output and it maybe that Southern Britain remain unsettled with rain at times anyway. My own thoughts at the moment are that it looks unlikely that this pattern will evolve in such a way that brings cold weather to the UK on this occasion and could end up being just a cloudy and benign coolish period before the Atlantic wins back. Nevertheless, like last night's ECM operational showed there is always potential when the synoptics setup in the way and it only needs a change of orientation of the High and Low pressure features to change my opinion to something rather colder but I conclude that this is not shown this morning so I don't expect the Met Office to indicate any note of particular change in the mid range forecasts unless cross model support for something more wintry is shown consistently for several days at least and we're not even on the treadmill to that goal yet.

[phil nw.]

Well no real change this morning.

Ecm op. still intent on a easterly later on but looking at all the means it does look like it overdoes the Greenland ridging.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=21&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

The block to the east is simply keeping Atlantic lows just to our west feeding in bands of rain or showers.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A quick run through of the GEFS anomaly this morning. (quite boring really)

 

D10 has the Alaskan and Greenland ridges with a pretty well organised PV but with an intense low NE Canada. The evolution of this plays a significant role in later frames. So although there are indications of higher heights into N. Britain this gives away to the Atlantic. Temps still generally above average.

Charts courtesy WxBell

Can you put a big arrow on the organised PV please Knocker?

 

BFTP

[knocker]

Can you put a big arrow on the organised PV please Knocker?

 

BFTP

I was looking N. Russia at T240 BFTP. Am I being over enthusiastic? Perhaps indications of would have been more appropriate.

Edited November 9, 2014 by knocker

[Midlands Ice Age]

Big differences in opinions in here this morning.

All models agree up to about +100.

The GFS (as knocker alludes) builds a large low anonamly over NE Canada. This has major impacts on the GFS and GFS(p) suites, in that it prevents the high pressure regressing back into Greenland.

It therefore goes on to keep the high back into NE and Central Europe. Hence the UK stays under the Atlantic influence. All logical.

However the good news for coldies is as Cloud10 alludes - look what happens to Moscow and Eatern Europe.

At the other end of the scale is ECM yesterday, which has full retrogression to Scandi allowing the polar vortex to approach us from the North. THe ECM(0) backs down from this Super progressive run, but still ends up with a decent easterly. My reading of the other models is that all of them (except GEM) tend towards and are not far away from the ECM(0) solution.

The GEM starts of on the track of a full blown easterly (ala ECM), but collapses the high to the north under the force of the atlantic low pressure coming out of the US.

So I make it that once again it will come down as to has modelled the NE USA and Newfoundland correctly. Why is it so critical year in and year out to our weather?

MIA

Edited November 9, 2014 by Midlands Ice Age

[IDO]

I was looking N. Russia at T240 BFTP. Am I being over enthusiastic?

We are talking about trends in FI and of course it is going to take time for the PV to become a full on Arctic Low again, that is if it does. Looking at the D16 charts have obvious caveats, but the GEFS are suggesting removal of high latitude heights and a gradual connection of the lower heights scattered around the high latitude. At the moment the liklehood is there will be two lobes of the PV and where they settle could dictate the medium term outlook.

Of course with the ex Tropical storm in the mix we won't really know for a few more days and we have to judge this situation on the history and bias of each models till they resolve it themselves.

[shaky]

Gfs o6z still trending towards the ecm in regards to heights attempting to be sucked towards greenland and the arctic!!!

[knocker]

We are talking about trends in FI and of course it is going to take time for the PV to become a full on Arctic Low again, that is if it does. Looking at the D16 charts have obvious caveats, but the GEFS are suggesting removal of high latitude heights and a gradual connection of the lower heights scattered around the high latitude. At the moment the liklehood is there will be two lobes of the PV and where they settle could dictate the medium term outlook.

Of course with the ex Tropical storm in the mix we won't really know for a few more days and we have to judge this situation on the history and bias of each models till they resolve it themselves.

 

Noted ido. Looking at the ECM ens for the Arctic it does appear more 'organised' with one lobe from T240 but as you say certainly a bit away from definitive answers.

[kimb]

Big differences in opinions in here this morning.

All models agree up to about +100.

The GFS (as knocker alludes) builds a large low anonamly over NE Canada. This has major impacts on the GFS and GFS(p) suites, in that it prevents the high pressure regressing back into Greenland.

It therefore goes on to keep the high back into NE and Central Europe. Hence the UK stays under the Atlantic influence. All logical.

However the good news for coldies is as Cloud10 alludes - look what happens to Moscow and Eatern Europe.

At the other end of the scale is ECM yesterday, which has full retrogression to Scandi allowing the polar vortex to approach us from the North. THe ECM(0) backs down from this Super progressive run, but still ends up with a decent easterly. My reading of the other models is that all of them (except GEM) tend towards and are not far away from the ECM(0) solution.

The GEM starts of on the track of a full blown easterly (ala ECM), but collapses the high to the north under the force of the atlantic low pressure coming out of the US.

So I make it that once again it will come down as to has modelled the NE USA and Newfoundland correctly. Why is it so critical year in and year out to our weather?

MIA

 

 

But the easterly isn't cold is it or am I reading it wrong ? What would be the point with the colder air all up North ?

[SMU]

So if it's poor at handling heights, from a meteorological point of view, what does it mean it's poor at handling?

 

Edit. What I'm attempting to say is this. If you have a 250mb contour chart showing HP over Scandinavia say, even if the GFS misrepresents the thermal structure of the airmass and thus the heights, the jet will still follow the contour lines. As the contour lines (heights) are a function of temperature it follows that the area where they are closer together (highest thermal gradient) you will find the jet. It also means, for obvious reasons, that great care should be taken if you are transposing the position of the jet on to a 500mb chart.

 

An example from this morning where the jet passes north of the mid Atlantic ridge and then splits and runs around the upper low and then the HP

 

Conclusion

moving the jet through HP = nonsense

 

 

Morning All / Knocker Draztik et al.

 

 

Lets not turn this into the usual forum vendetta, You took the time to reply to my post so I will to both of you- however post that What you choose to do with the information is up to you.

 

Its fair to say that everyone posting here or even not choosing to post have had their fingers burnt by a certain model at some point, & of course the clear strategy to get a consensus forecast is to ensure all parties are onside until you make that decision, this is very easy for all 3 models at T24/48/ 72 & to a certain extent T96 - day 4 these days is pretty solid. Day 5 is where we start to see continuity diverge & indeed by T144 all manor of solutions can offer themselves up.

This is why the UKMet are not usually drawn into comments post day 5 as within their own modelling suite past this day there arises the larger spread.

 

We are lucky here, we have no bounds on what timeline we post on & no repercussions when we get it wrong other than out own credibility.

The majority here- I would say 80/20 at the point of mid November are looking for cold, so certainly that becomes the topic of discussion, this supersedes Wind /Rain - even floods. It would seem the majority aren't interested in that, or at least because it doesn't directly effect them aren't interested in discussing it & leave it to the regional discussions.

So the weighting in here at least is heavily skewed to interest in the evolution to cold & of course relating to that most peoples posts are related to any information that present that trend.

I find there's 3 clusters of people that post here ( with possibly 1 or 2 others) Mainly:

 

* Members that spend a lot of time painting a balanced picture of what's on offer across all models ( Gibby Springs to mind )

* Members dropping in posting a few lines & a chart that they hope to see land

* Finally members that prefer to dissect what's presented & look for why all models differ in terms of what is likely to be correct & why the other 1 or 2 are wrong. ( which is where I sit ) - I suggest perhaps your in the top & indeed put forward some good rationale.

 

When I see reference to the model performance statistics & the fine margins that appear to be between the GFS / UKMO / ECM at day 6 the NH RMS errors aren't huge, infact without someone actually presenting a method to define how close ot far apart they are you would say they are pretty identical - & they are Across the Northern hemisphere...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

 

If the Pink one is the GFS Parallel then its a tick away from being on a level par with the ECM, & I hope it is close as what a waste of money if it isn't.

 

Where we start to struggle is trying to piece the medium term together when you factor in the model bias. ( UKMO Bias is unknown). Obviously these models weren't designed with a bias, however with the complicated algorithms that they all complete there is some inherent problems that manifest in around day 6 which begin to fragment the accuracy.

This is VERY specific on the GFS focussed around 3 areas of the NH

* The region close to the -EPO ridge ( or further East the +PNA ridge)  ---  For Arguments sake Alaska.

* The Atlantic - More particular Central / Northern Atlantic - dealing with Azores ridging

* The Scandi Block ( or high - especially in retrograde scenarios )

 

Without going into very timely & specific detail which I haven't the time - the GFS operational will deal with split jets poorly & maybe my wording last night with written quickly & quite crude. The GFS will over accelerate the jet in these scenarios placing significant bias into the northern arm of the jet. The Subsequent result will manifest in many ways & become heavily exaggerated at the timeline past 144. This bias then skews the Pressure patterns flatter & further East. So instead of a Scandi high with a potential height reaching 70N is eased back to say 50N with the jet piling over the top.

The GFS ensembles which are worse resolution especially past 192 will make this bias worse so when you run the model unless there is a compelling signal for these 3 blocks named above at 168 then by the mid point of day 10 the Ensemble mean would have smoothed than anomaly out & present a pretty normal picture.

 

So within the model statistics ( & what we used to have before the CPC got rid of them ) was NH performance but also statistics for specific areas like pole, atlantic, US , Eurasia etc etc & you will have to trust that the clear failings of the GFS has specific weaknesses & drop offs in accuracy in the 3 above mentioned areas.

lets just call them -

- EPO ( Alaska ) -NAO ( atlantic ) -POL ( Scandi)- its not technically scandi its polar Eurasia but for arguments sake........

 

In the mid term whenever ANY of these index are trending strongly negative then the above GFS bias becomes its enemy as for want of better expression to say its fighting the tide.

 

In the CURRENT output we have the following.

a HUGE -EPO ridge, & a strong -POL ridge developing between day 4-8 then subsequently post day 8 the ECM is portending to a -NAO scenario as well through atlantic ridging.

Based on the above information everything about the upcoming pattern plays into the hands of the ECM which does well with all those patterns with a footnote.* which I will highlight below after the following maps.

 

Today the 3 big models are agreed at 120 so lets take the ECM 120 as a pretty good reflection of what will happen. Its clear that the -EPO is in place & some sort of POL ridging towards Greenland.

 

 

If that's todays 120, then lets look at the runs for 144,168 & 192 from Each run from older date to new.

 

So 12z GFS

 

The commentary here is the GFS 12z didn't see the -EPO ridge very well at first & trended to a large high with a higher amplitude ( remember my commentary around its bias towards split jet)

Then the same happens on the -POL ridge, starts off a weak signal & by 144 its seeing higher heights, also if we look very close the nearest run has high heights right across Greenland.

 

now the 06z

 

The commentary here is similar to the 12z but worse. - because 06z!!!

There is no EPO ridge at 192 with a poor signal replicated across all 3 runs the shaping is poor.

In terms of the POL blocking what was going on 2 days ago??? nothing whatsoever NB EASTWARD BIAS!!!

Then yesterday a slight recovery.

 

for reference heres the pub run.

 

 

Again what happened 2 days ago???? pretty poor modelling... Its also clear that the 06z & 18z had serious errors in their mid term assessments.

 

Now onto the ECM

 

12z

 

Commentary

Consistency wise looks better especially around the wave height of the -EPO ridge & the POL pretty good.

 Also the ECM shows more atlantic trough disruption....

The 00z is very similar.

 

 

So what model has done well here, well assuming the 120 was about right- the GFS 06z now at 114 shows near identical solutions

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014110906/gfsnh-0-114.png?6

 

A CLEAR trumps for the ECM, even if we rewind to the 5th - then this is the 00z's for that day at 240

 

ECM

 

GFS

 

The ECM formulating thoughts that the Heights would increase in the EPO & POL region where as the GFS, well not really at the party.

 

_________________________________________________________

 

Going back to the ECM & its personal bias - since the upgrade we have seen some over amplification scenarios - I haven't seen them in the EPO & POL regions ( possibly because last winter had zero blocking ) however it has over amplified the atlantic amplifaction-

 

heres the run that made it look bad from last December-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=26&mois=11&annee=2013&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=1&type=0

 

Its a concern & duly noted for this winter that the ECM could be over amplifying the pattern- so bringing this back to the here & now where should we be looking today for POSSIBLE weaknesses in its out put.

I would say anywhere theres atlantic amplification & subsequent patterns as a result.

 

ECM 168-

 

We see the ECM going full on Wave 2 Vortex split Across the pole with atlantic amplification which could be overestimated, but is the route to true cold into Scandi through the vortex wedge circumnavigating Eurasia backwards.

Incidentally if the ECM lands then the stratosphere will be in tatters with a warming even on the cards in the Taymyr region ( remember ive put that into the winter forecast )

 

to offset the ECMs confidence & underpin the worry the UKMO doesn't have much interest in the wave 2 activity...

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014110900/UN144-21.GIF?09-06

 

No height rises & no wave 2.

 

 

In summary-

This early battle the ECM has won fairly conclusive beating UMKO & GFS hands down,  Phase 2 of this now will be the polar & Atlantic height battle, & looking at the GFS it has certainly trended further back to the ECM...

 

The worry for me is the UKMO as it makes nothing of it all- until the UKMO is on board it isn't happening......

 

best regards

Steve

 

PS Bobby dog- You commenting relating to the OPI team & credibility-

if you read this post you will see that using the GFS for the OPI isn't as bad as using the GFS for JUST the atlantic pattern however I would certainly be using the ECM......

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

But the easterly isn't cold is it or am I reading it wrong ? What would be the point with the colder air all up North ?

 

The surface air over Western Russia is already quite cold.(for us!) at about 0-5C max during the day.

The air will rapidly cool further over there under clear skies at this time of year. It will then start to spread towards us. How long would it take? A week or so. I would not expect bitterly cold weather as soon as the easterly sets in, but again it would be a step in the right direction in coolig down Europe. The ECM(12) run would have given a quick route to cold.

MIA

[blizzard81]

After the last two ECM runs, I have noticed the control turns unsettled and not particularly cold. Trying to piece it all together, it looks as though there will be a cool easterly in a weeks time. We then see a push of very cold air in the Svalbard area push south into northern Scandinavia. This push doesn't make it to our shores as low pressure in the atlantic wins the race and brings in more unsettled weather. Great building blocks though in terms of very cold air building to our north east.

[SteveB]

I think all we can glean from the models this morning is uncertainty as is usually the case this time of year (well any time of year when looking at 7+day ahead) but more so now as the charts are scrutinised far more.

 

More runs are needed........ and a lot of patience

 

In the mean time, plenty of rain to get though

 

 

 

Temps look to remain around average with a touch of frost for the North early next week before turning distinctly average for all there after.

Edited November 9, 2014 by SteveB

[blizzard81]

After the last two ECM runs, I have noticed the control turns unsettled and not particularly cold. Trying to piece it all together, it looks as though there will be a cool easterly in a weeks time. We then see a push of very cold air in the Svalbard area push south into northern Scandinavia. This push doesn't make it to our shores as low pressure in the atlantic wins the race and brings in more unsettled weather. Great building blocks though in terms of very cold air building to our north east.

Just to add to my post - the 06z GFS Parallel shows exactly what I have explained above.

[bluearmy]

Good post Steve

The PRHW is the new gfs

I want to know what the PRX is?

At day 10 it is also level pegging with the ECM

Anyone know. Can't find anything via google.

[SMU]

Good post Steve

The PRHW is the new gfs

I want to know what the PRX is?

At day 10 it is also level pegging with the ECM

Anyone know. Can't find anything via google.

 

 

Yes, I wish we still had the regional results for the GFS... its sad they went....

[IDO]

The D16 from the GFS parallel highlights the trend that has been showing in the GEFS for a much more organised PV:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=1&carte=1&runpara=1

It may all change but there is a clear signal.