Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[blizzard81]

I am guessing the lack of comments are to do with the not so tasty uppers. However, we should be rejoicing at these

charts as I believe that if they come off, it will set the scene for a memorable winter to come for us cold/snow lovers.

[Summer Sun]

It's only too soon in that the coldest uppers are not in Europe yet.

However we have seen over the years that once the blocks are in place that the cold sweeps in very quickly.

 

And once these blocks are in place they can take some shifting, the cold would soon build once the right setup occurs

 

step 1 get the block in place

 

step 2 watch the cold air soon build

 

Edited November 8, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Mair Snaw]

Stunning charts this evening simply stunning......ECM gives us weather porn for the first time since march 2013....as said before tho we had "that ECM" December 2012 and until its at t72 im not getting too excited and im defo not saying anything to any family.....i feel tomorrow and monday are big days to see if this develops or is another false dawn....

[SteveB]

I am guessing the lack of comments are to do with the not so tasty uppers. However, we should be rejoicing at these

charts as I believe that if they come off, it will set the scene for a memorable winter to come for us cold/snow lovers.

Lets get the Northern hemisphere set up in place, once in place the cold will come.

 

Surely you would prefer all the ingredients are in place to deliver the cold, than nothing at all! 

Edited November 8, 2014 by SteveB

[phil nw.]

Understandable excitement at the ECM Op but let's please keep things on topic.

A few 1 liners that added nothing have been removed.

 

Remember if you want a good ramp there is the other thread.

 

Ta.

Edited November 8, 2014 by phil nw.

[blizzard81]

Lets get the Northern hemisphere set up in place, one in place the cold will come.

 

Surely you would prefer all the ingredients are in place to deliver the cold, than nothing at all! 

Exactly what I was trying to get across. The ECM run tonight could not be any more different to the dross

we endured last winter if it tried!

[karlos1983]

What a run from the ECM. However it's going to need some friends to join that party before I even consider trusting it again after "That ECM". Very nice to see all the same.

The uppers are irrelevant, get that in place and cold uppers WILL follow!

Edited November 8, 2014 by karlos1983

[Continental Climate]

the Murr sausage in all its glory 

[Man With Beard]

I am guessing the lack of comments are to do with the not so tasty uppers. However, we should be rejoicing at these

charts as I believe that if they come off, it will set the scene for a memorable winter to come for us cold/snow lovers.

not so tasty uppers at T240, but what about by T288??

ECM threatening us with the whole polar vortex (or what's left of it!) coming from the north with a direct hit!

Back to reality though ... this morning I said the ECM was well within the realms of possibility. This one, though, surely takes it too far and is over progressive, and I would be highly surprised to see this one verify.

A good reminder to check the antifreeze though!

[blizzard81]

It will be interesting to see the ECM ensembles and ensemble means later on.

I must say the last 24 hours on Net weather have been more exciting than the whole

of last winter put together 

[Duane S.]

 

Sorry but 10% probability is looking a bit daft now. Sure it is still low probability but sometimes the Met seem to be so over-cautious (yes I understand the reasons...to a degree...). It really is computer says "no"

 

The NH is in a highly dynamic state and with increasing warmings yet to come, increased wave breaking yet to come, to call that a 10% chance is poor. And by 'that' I am only refering to getting over first hurdle which is retrogression into Greenland and an initial Easterly that will only be relatively cold initially. There will be more hurdles to jump afterwards if we want anything like a Dec '10 repeat.

 

[terrier]

If we start seeing the gfs and ukmo move towards the ECM I might start to belive it. But at the moment I think tonight's output from the ECM is been to progressive. We all know what happened in December 2012 it lead us up the garden path quite a few times with the gfs been closer to the actual outcome. Guess we will see which model has the best handle on all this over the coming days. Very interesting!!!!

[seabreeze86]

Crazy patterns setting up over the northern hemisphere.

 

Just look at this

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110812/ECH101-216.GIF?08-0

 

AO and NAO going through the floor, Great start to the winter season but we have been down this road before and the weather will always catch us out.

 

Its all about timing, the ridge building over northern Canada just as the high begins to retrogress from Scandi to Greenland and then they link up pushing cold into North America and then Europe.An easterly looks very likely, how cold and how dramatic remains to be seen.

Edited November 8, 2014 by seabreeze86

[snowstorm445]

I have to say it is eerily reminiscent of "that" infamous ECM (early December 2012). In case anyone needs reminding:

 

 

Still, the background signals are there, and we have much to be hopeful about. Lets hope the GFS and other models wake up and smell the coffee.

[snowblues]

Is it not very often you're get charts like that from this evenings ecm at this early time of the winter,especially when you see high pressure being sucked in from Scandinavia and then in from the pacific into Greenland causing a spilt vortex.All eyes on the stratosphere.

[phil nw.]

It will be interesting to see the ECM ensembles and ensemble means later on.

I must say the last 24 hours on Net weather have been more exciting than the whole

of last winter put together 

Yep was thinking the same.

If the ECM op has the Atlantic ridging into Greenland modelled correctly at T168hrs, which derails the Atlantic train, then we can see why it almost seamlessly tips the scales towards the colder pattern. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110812/ECH1-168.GIF?08-0

 

again a step further than the other models at mid-range with those heights.

 

Quite possible of course in view of the 2 wave activity but i think we would all be more confident with support from other runs although even they showed a little more strength in that Greenland ridging but not to the ECM extent that cuts off the Atlantic trough.

 

Let see if the ECM mean does indeed tilt in that direction later but wrt the overall trend reasons to be cheerful as Ian Drury  once sang. 

Edited November 8, 2014 by phil nw.

[blizzard81]

I would also like to point out that tonight's 12z GFS parallel run showed quite a lot of similarities

to tonight's 12z ECM. Interesting times!!

[blizzard81]

Yep was thinking the same.

If the ECM op has the Atlantic ridging into Greenland modelled correctly at T168hrs, which derails the Atlantic train, then we can see why it almost seamlessly tips the scales towards the colder pattern. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110812/ECH1-168.GIF?08-0

 

again a step further than the other models at mid-range with those heights.

 

Quite possible of course in view of the 2 wave activity but i think we would all be more confident with support form other runs although even they showed a little more strength in that Greenland ridging but not to the ECM extent that cuts off the Atlantic trough.

 

Let see if the ECM mean does indeed tilt in that direction later but wrt the overall trend reasons to be cheerful as Ian Drury  once sang. 

Absolutely, we need to see the other major players jumping on board over the next day or two.

Looking at tonight's 12z GFS parallel and you may be forgiven for thinking that support has already started to some degree.

[ITSY]

Can anyone post the ens ECM update as and when they get them? I'm sure I speak for the universe at large with that request

[MR EXTREMES]

Is this another 1 of those ECM garden path outputs. Still remember the one in 2012 that had us all jumping for joy at t96 and it vanished. Patience required I think.

Yep and it has no support from any of the other models which is a worry.

I'm 100% certain now that I don't not rate the ecm past 144hrs and it has a massive heights bias

[Mark Bayley]

Can anyone post the ens ECM update as and when they get them? I'm sure I speak for the universe at large with that request

 

Even better, heres a link to the ECM ensembles >http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

[Jonathan Lang]

Even though the GFS has a much worse looking pattern for cold, it still shows high pressure in the northern lattitudes so not a total disagreement.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Having a look back to 'that ECM' I'm struck by how poor the NH pattern was in comparison to the one we're looking at. 

At +120, we had a monster Siberian high which was trying to push west (always a slightly 'shoogly peg' to hang on) with the vortex still lurking just west of Greenland:

and by the end of the run, while the high retrogressed sufficiently, the vortex had completely reformed:

 

In this case there's pretty much full model support for a build of heights centred much further west, riding north from a SCeuro ridge to around Northwest Norway across to eastern Greenland, at +120, with cross polar ridging from our heights to the massive Alaskan beast that's delivering major cold to the US:

 

This looks, if it comes off, to be a more sustainable block, and one more likely to reliably deliver cold than the retrogressing beast we've seen trying its hand a few times. Of course, that still doesn't mean things will necessarily fall into place for us, and we could certainly do with getting some proper vertical WAA into Greenland as the ECM 12Z does, but it is a bit different from the standard 'beast from the east' that we've seen fail so many times. 

Edited November 8, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[bluearmy]

Couple of comments

ECM heights bias will lead to over amplification and possible feedback loops where the exaggeration becomes more exaggerated. However, it isn't as though it's out on its own re the upcoming ten days.

My experience of the past few years is that MOGREPS has been slow to the party when cold has indeed verified. I am not surprised that Exeter only had an easterly at 10%. We can see that on the Dutch ECM ens.

And thirdly, I bet a few of you are up earlier in the morning than is usual for a Sunday!

[knocker]

A glance at the NOAA and GEFs anomalies.

 

The NOAA 6-10 is a very bold affair. A pretty intense low in the Pacific and a similar HP in the east ridging across the pole into Scandinavia. Trough northern Canada stretching west to east to a low SW of the UK. The contour chart depicts a very meridional pattern in the Pacific becoming more zonal below the Atlantic trough driving depressions in the Atlantic. The GEF T216 is broadly similar to this.

 

The 8-14 is much along the same theme although loses some zonality to the west of the UK around the trough. The GEFS T384 has lost the HP eastern Pacific and with no great amplification upstream and no great build up of heights Greenland has a cool zonal flow across the Atlantic thus continuing the low pressure domination. Temps above average for the period.

 

So on the basis of this I be thinking along the lines of continuing unsettled. Now that's original.

 

charts courtesy WxBell.