Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[Snowy L]

Worried about the lack of low pressure in Russia though, as there's then nothing to lock the high pressure to our Northwest. However, November 2010 looked equally as hopeless in that department:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2010/avn/Rtavn00120101120.png

 

Then in a matter of days we got the block set up:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2010/avn/Rtavn00120101123.png

 

 

Imo, correct me if I'm wrong, we should be looking for:

a split between the UK low and the Newfoundland lows, allowing the high pressure to our north some space to move into to the west.

Sudden cyclogenesis in the central Europe area

 

ECM is hinting at the first, so some encouraging signs.

[Jonan92]

Here we go!

 

[Barry12]

It would be unusual for the ECM to be wrong at day 6 though

[Cloud 10]

192 hrs and we have lift off!

 

[bobbydog]

The 168hr chart confirms what I thought. That spin off low from the vortex over the pole is helping

the vortex to fight back with a vengeance!!

 

eh? what charts are you looking at?

 

set your TARDIS to this year-

 

[Summer Sun]

here comes the easterly

 

 

:cold:

Edited November 8, 2014 by Summer Sun

[David Morse]

 

 

This is looking very good .......................too good to be true...........surely?

 

But SURELY, that Low to the south west is pumping warm air across the UK, not blizzards but buckets full of rain and winds! What is all the cold outlook hoola for?

[Banbury]

Here we go!

 

 

 

An excellent run from ECM

[Snowy L]

eh? what charts are you looking at?

 

set your TARDIS to this year-

 

 

Oh damn is that low to the east of Greenland heading south December 2010 style?

[Tim Bland]

Need the pattern to shift south a few hundred miles and we are business. As you can see from Summer Sun's post the air over most of Europe is not cold enough to deliver sub zero 850s from an easterly yet

[Snowy L]

Need the pattern to shift south a few hundred miles and we are business. As you can see from Summer Sun's post the air over most of Europe is not cold enough to deliver sub zero 850s from an easterly yet

 

B-b-but you can see sub zero 850s reaching the east of the UK?

[blizzard81]

eh? what charts are you looking at?

 

set your TARDIS to this year-

 

Haha! I was referring to the 144 & 168 charts. If you compare them with this mornings run, there is a lobe breaks away

from the mother vortex so to speak hence making the vortex more spunky as BA would say!

[Jonan92]

Holy ****

 

[Banbury]

Need the pattern to shift south a few hundred miles and we are business. As you can see from Summer Sun's post the air over most of Europe is not cold enough to deliver sub zero 850s from an easterly yet

 

It never was going to be though, we have always been waiting from something from the far N and E, Europe's cold is yet to arrive...............................yet

[Snowy L]

Holy ****

 

 

Oh damn is that low to the east of Greenland heading south December 2010 style?

 

Called it

[Banbury]

Called it

You certainly did , a superb run , lets hope it isn't a one and only offer of the Winter eh?

[terrier]

Is this another 1 of those ECM garden path outputs. Still remember the one in 2012 that had us all jumping for joy at t96 and it vanished. Patience required I think.

[Mucka]

Looking at the big picture developments we can see that all the models have backed the pattern West today compared to yesterday which is exactly what we want to see to have things swing in favour of extended blocking.

I have chosen charts in the semi reliable 5 day range for comparison between today's 12z and yesterdays 12z runs to illustrate.

 

 

 

JMA

 

 

GFS

 

 

ECM

 

 

 

 

UKMO

 

 

 

 

As for tonight's ECM, well I did post earlier the one ingredient that was missing so far was some nice WAA up the Western flank of Greenland to support blocking - no longer.

 

 

I case of ask and you shall receive. 

Of course we need this to be reproduced by the other models and UKMO, despite slow improvement run to run, is still being unenthusiastic.

 

For now though let's all enjoy the boom chart of 2014    (Yes this is the best winter chart we have seen modelled this year I believe?)

 

 

And for those who are about to complain about the lack of cold uppers, please don't. 

Edited November 8, 2014 by Mucka

[Snowy L]

Is this another 1 of those ECM garden path outputs. Still remember the one in 2012 that had us all jumping for joy at t96 and it vanished. Patience required I think.

 

The building blocks are there at T120 when we get the severely weakened Canada vortex lobe (seen on both GFS 12z and especially ECM 12z), allowing a brief gap to form in the Atlantic, which gives the high pressure space to retrogress west in the ECM run. Still a long way away from anything solid, but the signs are there. One thing's for sure, we're not at 10% anymore.

[blizzard81]

Still 10%? Looks like a change may be afoot but still too early to be certain.

[Banbury]

 

Look at that block, stunning from ECM

[bobbydog]

Haha! I was referring to the 144 & 168 charts. If you compare them with this mornings run, there is a lobe breaks away

from the mother vortex so to speak hence making the vortex more spunky as BA would say!

 

apparently the vortex is not happy with your comments- its coming after us!!

 

[Continental Climate]

Holy god http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif That looks very 1947 to me. Only problem is that it is all too soon and we dont have a cold pool to our east. I just get the feeling its all falling into shape too early and would prefer if we were seeing these charts in decmeber.

 

Quite a block in place there at 216 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

 

It cant happen!! Can it?

 

Just crazy lol http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Edited November 8, 2014 by Continental Climate

[SteveB]

Holy god http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif That looks very 1947 to me. Only problem is that it is all too soon and we dont have a cold pool to our east. I just get the feeling its allo falling into shape too early and would prefer if we were seeing these charts in decmeber.

 

Quite a block in place their at 216 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif 

 

It cant happen!! Can it?

 

I'm happy to see these charts now, gives us a very clear idea of how this Winter will pan out, will the set up deliver or will it vanish before our eyes.

 

The sooner we find out, the sooner we will be all put out of our misery.

 

Tis looking very promising though..

 

Edited November 8, 2014 by SteveB

[The Northern Ramper]

It's only too soon in that the coldest uppers are not in Europe yet.

However we have seen over the years that once the blocks are in place that the cold sweeps in very quickly.