Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[Barry12]

We get a Northerly followed by an Easterly in deepest FI, only 300 hours away, what could possibly go wrong?

[ukpaul]

When does the parallel GFS take over? I have to admit that I'm looking at that rather than the lame duck version now.

 

EDIT: I can actually see the contours of Baffin Bay on this run, such a change from last year when it seemed to be permanently drenched in dark blue and purple.

Edited November 7, 2014 by ukpaul

[BlueHedgehog074]

When does the parallel GFS take over? I have to admit that I'm looking at that rather than the lame duck version now.

It should be 9th December according to this post: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/?p=3053057

 

Looks like it won't be much longer until the ghost of the current GFS will be heading up to that big glow in the sky... 

[bluearmy]

It could be a week later but quite honestly, does it matter much? We can see the parallel. What's more relevant is when the upgrade on gefs is visible as we don't currently have a parallel version to view.

Interesting to see themes in fi parallel mimicking some of those fi ens ideas I mentioned earlier.

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=318&y=147&run=12&runpara=0&col=1&type=0&ext=1

 

hi blue

 

try the above

 

it shows the parallel on the ensembles if that helps

[bluearmy]

not really john - want to see the new gefs ens suite running. Have no idea when it will go live but the fact we still don't see it running in parallel leads me to think it won't be this side of the new year.

I wonder if tomorrow's ops will begin to show a complete split to our north in week 2?

[Zenarcher]

It should be 9th December according to this post: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/?p=3053057

 

Looks like it won't be much longer until the ghost of the current GFS will be heading up to that big glow in the sky... 

 

It's served us well but its time to move on and join NOGAPS in the Weather Model heaven 

 

Nothing much else to add as most of todays model runs have already been discussed, just that over the past few days I've been keeping a check on the CFS daily runs and noticed a overall trend in a blocked pattern consistently showing daily now for November into early December. Of course the exact details on any events that we may see won't be pinned down until nearer the time but its good to see a favourable trend at the moment in the longer range model.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=192&carte=1&mode=0

 

The first wave 2 Greenland blocking run a la 2009 of the season so far

[easton888]

sorry Steve, can you explain 'wave 2'?

[ITSY]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=192&carte=1&mode=0

 

The first wave 2 Greenland blocking run a la 2009 of the season so far

Steve I admire your optimism, I can't fault you there. Models certainly seem to have taken a shift to the mild theme today though. If we get Synoptics like Ptb17 there I will be stunned

[Barry12]

Steve I admire your optimism, I can't fault you there. Models certainly seem to have taken a shift to the mild theme today though. If we get Synoptics like Ptb17 there I will be stunned

There's nothing remotely mild in the models I've seen?

[Dean E]

Hi all, not a huge poster but I just wanted to shed some light for people who are worried about the mild term in the short to medium turn.

 

The Atlantic is really going to get itself into gear over the next week. There is one clear reason for this:

 

GFS 500mb with SL pressure on the left and the NH Jet stream on the right

 

 

 

The area of interest I've shown are circled in black. This was once Typhoon Nuri. Its now becoming an incredibly strong extra-tropical system out in the cooler waters of the North Pacific. Its central pressure at present is around 935mb... an intense storm being helped by a very strong Jet (shown in the second photo on the right, circled in black)

 

This is important because look what Nuri does in this area...

 

GFS +36hr 850pha 

 

 

Again, the area circled in black, you can see Nuri (due to its size and strength) sending up warm air into Alaska and towards the Polar regions.

 

From what I learned when studying, there is always a opposite to one extreme or another...The same is true in Meterology. So if warm air surges North, Cold air must surge south...

 

 

 

Again using the GFS (+36hr) 850pha, you can see the warm air being sent up by Nuri is actually helping cold air surge southwards towards Eastern Canada and the US (or creating a trough). Second image shows the surge southward at 500mb level.

 

Many will argue that its a piece of the 'Polar Vortex' but that's not what I want to go into!

 

How does that effect our weather though?

 

Well this creates a huge temperature contrast over the US and Canada. This ramps up the Atlantic Jet stream and we get this...

 

GFS +90hrs

 

 

Low's coming off the Eastern Seaboard and into the Northern Atlantic. This coming to us but stalling due to a strong High of Russia, which is worrying as flooding could become a concern later on.

 

So for those saying 'Its a repeat of winter 2013' or 'Winter 2014 is going to wet' you are neither right or wrong, but as others have said, the Northern Hemisphere is A LOT differently set up, to last year.

 

I hope this explains things as they stand right now and hope that the new people that are here this year don't get down hearted by conflicting posts. Its weather and it will do what the hell it wants!   

 

SM

Edited November 8, 2014 by SnowMania

[Purga]

There's nothing remotely mild in the models I've seen?

Really?

 

Also IanF tweeted earlier this evening "UKMO latest assessment into 15d offers "no sign of any significant cold weather in any output". Beyond: unknown."

[Gael_Force]

sorry Steve, can you explain 'wave 2'?

 

If you pop over to the Stratosphere thread, Chionomaniac has just written a detailed post to answer that very question.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/?p=3065793

[Gael_Force]

Really?

 

Also IanF tweeted earlier this evening "UKMO latest assessment into 15d offers "no sign of any significant cold weather in any output". Beyond: unknown."

 

Maybe the operative word there is 'significant' - one should not expect significant cold in the middle of November but it does not rule out a trend to cold.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFSP showing a very unsettled wet/cool N/W flow out in the run, Then swinging to the North maybe.

 

Edited November 8, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Ali1977]

If the GFS was anything like the ECM this morning this place would be in melt down. Sadly it's not. Great ECM though, best yet

[SMU]

Morning all

The ECM train rolls on this morning now joined by the UKMO at 144-

Huge retrograde block setting up as a strong EAST NAO-

ECM T2M for the uk at day 10 likely to be sub 5c

As much as I loath it because of last year GFS needs to be on board-

Watch for the ECM ensemble T2M crash at day 9 & 10

S

Edited November 8, 2014 by Steve Murr

[bluearmy]

other things to look out for on the ecm fi (which is likely to be over amplified somewhere in the NH) include the removal of heights to our south - the atlantic trough carving out a nice southerly trajectory for the jet which would drive into europe to our south. with the sceuro block removed. this no longer needs to arc towards us, nor stall to our west. this would be our trigger to advect the russian cold this way. of course, this is only one possible route that the modelling is taking at the moment. however, if you look at one of my posts last night, you will see me musing as to whether we would see any ops splitting the heights to our north completely today. the ecm, not unsurprisingly obliges and the gem isnt far behind. lets see where the 12z's take us and whether the parallel joins in as it seems happy to solidly bridge the siberian and canadian vortices. an ecm type profile on the next couple runs would be quite a change.  as someone used to say: 'let the trend be your friend'.  we may end up under a chilly block with the eastern europeans really cold come late november. at least we look like we will have a ticket though and at least this year, there is an early season european raffle to take part in!!

[MR EXTREMES]

i think its clear the latter runs of the ecm is rather over the top and this was a feature early last winter most models though do see a slow trend to colder climes.

i was thinking last night do we really want the cold now?

id rather wait until december repeat 09/10 would be good enough.

 

but the models certainly are full steam ahead.

just goes to show a east QBO neg OPI and el nino do look like pretty good tool for possible cold.

 

my chart of the day is 

very very unlikely to happen but slowly but surely this could well become reality by december.

[mushymanrob]

I think one can look at the output one of two ways.

 

If you're a glass half empty type then its not up to much from a cold perspective and looks a bit of a stalemate at present.

 

If you're a glass half full type then you'll take comfort from the set up which means the route to cold doesn't need a scriptwriting team.

 

 

and what would a realist say?

 

i really cant see much more then a pretty normal november. yes theres a huge northern block, but the anomaly charts suggest it weakens and drifts further north. they also support the current ecm/gfs op runs

 

 

the ecm 00z follows the 12z by exiting the current high over scandinavia eastwards to be replaced by another high from the north, keeping the atlantic lows to our west and the uk under unsettled but average- mild.

 

and the gfs pretty much agrees, current scandi/northern european high drifting east to be replaced from the north.

 

 

and further into fi the potential easterly never makes it here.... yet (plenty of time) but appears to suggest the high slips slowly southward.

 

 

i might not be in the cold spotters club, but i can find nothing within the reliable , semi reliable, or fi to get concerned about just yet.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ok I'm liking what I'm seeing before us.  We are seeing LPs moving towards us on a WNW/ESE angle, a Jetstream set up I have and am touting as a 'general' pattern this winter.  As regard to cold hitting our shores, keep your eye now on deepest GFS.  Not for pinpoint accuracy but for timing....around start of last week of Nov for the 'switch' to cold conditions.  LPs to moving across on marked NW/SE axis and ushering flow from N to E quadrant.   

To be honest, something like this wouldn't be out of sync with my thoughts, not exact but one can get the gist......but I think we will have to endure more wet and not 'real' cold for a wee while yet. 

 

 

 

Just viewed the ECM, same theme but earlier than my thoughts, let's see where that goes...its a cracking run no doubt.  What were we saying about the hemisphere 'loading itself' ???   

 

BFTP

Edited November 8, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Man With Beard]

i think its clear the latter runs of the ecm is rather over the top and this was a feature early last winter most models though do see a slow trend to colder climes.

i was thinking last night do we really want the cold now?

id rather wait until december repeat 09/10 would be good enough.

 

but the models certainly are full steam ahead.

just goes to show a east QBO neg OPI and el nino do look like pretty good tool for possible cold.

 

my chart of the day is 

very very unlikely to happen but slowly but surely this could well become reality by december.

I wouldn't call this unlikely. Some sort of block to our north looks quite possible now. If that happened, this is just oneone of a few reasonably likely options.

There could be snow on this one too - as is often mentioned, 850s can be higher on an easterly.

[Captain Shortwave]

With the ECM and UKMO in agreement at day 6, then there is certainly a good chance of a true Scandi high developing into week 2 (as in one supported by low pressure and cold air to the south as opposed to the moment where it is fed by mid-latitude ridging). We do need agreement on the development of heights towards Svalbard which will allow cold air to start feeding into Europe slowly but surely.

The GEM does this a few days later but the damage is done

Good polar heights, bad Atlantic and European pattern with a developing mild southerly.

So need for caution at the moment

To be honest, the GFS isn't far off the Euros on the block. So we have a good start point in my opinion. GFS parallel, not so hot. 

[SMU]

i cant post links on the iphone

ECM mean at 9 & 10 looking pretty solid-

Expect the odd twitch at UK met today maybe even a tweet from ramper Liam Dutton....