WINTER 2014 / 15 PRELIMINARY VIEW - * COLD , POSSIBLY VERY COLD + DRIER THAN AVE *

[stewfox]

I am amazed that there 'seems?' To be far less response to Steves post,than I would've expected.

It could be the mods are deleting many one liners with little dancing figures...or perhaps its just too early in the season for seasoned Coldie types, to be tempted with Potential nirvana.

I for one am thrilled to bits to have had such a promising start to the season,and by that I mean activity within the forum and interest piqued so soon.

It is a waiting game, but its brilliant to not still be waiting for anything of interest by mid Feb!

Good luck everyone,and may your snow dreams be realised !

 

They have been some excellent forecast summaries put forward for winter 2014/15 but seasoned pros that have been on the forum for a few years manage their expectations as often forecast go wrong

 

Now when we hit a major snow event within the reliable say T140 you will realize the term 'interest piqued so soon' will be largely redundant

 

You know something has 'happened'  when you come home from work and there are 25 new pages on the out put models discussion thread and mods are working over time to stop one thousand new 'experts' posting.

 

I am hoping with SM excellent summary a warm strat the good OPI figure we have and all the other factors ,  the mods are kept very busy this winter 

Edited November 6, 2014 by stewfox

[whiskers]

 

You know something has 'happened'  when you come home from work and there are 25 new pages on the out put models discussion thread and mods are working over time .

yes I get super excited when I see loads of pages,I know we are on the brink of something!

[bluearmy]

Weatherbell still very keen on 76/77 as the analogue year.

[lorenzo]

Weatherbell still very keen on 76/77 as the analogue year.

 

Has also featured quite regularly on the analog guidance at CPC.

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif

 

EDIT - just went for a read of Joe's blog, very interesting commentary on how analogs are blended and pooled between himself and the other guys there, seems within analog sets new information can create new years coming to the forefront. The ENSO update today is something that I am sure will mix things up again..Blog also featured a couple of other highly weighted years and credit to the much maligned CFS for catching on ahead of the other GCMs.

Edited November 6, 2014 by lorenzo

[feb1991blizzard]

Weatherbell still very keen on 76/77 as the analogue year.

 

Was that a good year? I was born in Jan 77, my mom always goes on about it being typical me, an awkward so and so, she had to endure being pregnant in the heat of 76 and says it snowed in the winter

[Mark Neal.]

Was that a good year? I was born in Jan 77, my mom always goes on about it being typical me, an awkward so and so, she had to endure being pregnant in the heat of 76 and says it snowed in the winter

"1976-77: Heavy wet snow fell in early December, mid December, and mid January. Mid January also saw some good coverings though, up to 6 inches lying at times. "

Quote from History of British Winters, net weather.tv

[feb1991blizzard]

"1976-77: Heavy wet snow fell in early December, mid December, and mid January. Mid January also saw some good coverings though, up to 6 inches lying at times. "

Quote from History of British Winters, net weather.tv

 

 

"1976-77: Heavy wet snow fell in early December, mid December, and mid January. Mid January also saw some good coverings though, up to 6 inches lying at times. "

Quote from History of British Winters, net weather.tv

 

Yes the mid jan 6 inches ties in with what I was told, that's one of the few years since then that I haven't gone through the whole re-analysis of, I will maybe do it tomorrow.

[radiohead]

A promet posted this on americanwx earlier this evening. The implications of Nuri on the NH pattern.

 

 

There has been much discussion of the forecasted recurvature of Nuri and the re-intensification of Nuri as an extratropical cyclone. There are, as highlighted by many on this list, implications of this extratropical transition process on North American weather and it is linked to the downstream propagation of wave energy along the tropopause waveguide. Something that most of you probably are not looking at are impacts of this Nuri-induced wave activity on the stratospheric polar vortex.


In the recent (0600 UTC 5 Nov) GFS forecast, the wave train associated with Nuri is responsible for two notably large ridge building events, one in the N. Pacific and one linked to an explosive cyclogenesis event in the N. Atlantic. These ridges pinch the Arctic cold pool, creating an amplified wavenumber 2 pattern in the troposphere by forecast day 7 and the return of a lobe of the 'polar vortex' to the US.


The amplified tropospheric wavenumber-2 pattern in the forecast is associated with the amplification of the stratospheric wavenumber-2 pattern. By forecast day 15 (shown below), this wave amplification leads to a stratospheric warming event and the initial splitting of the stratospheric polar vortex. Of course this is a 15 day forecast during a lower predictability period, but for what its worth, in the extended range we are generally talking about planetary scale features. If this forecast holds true, it would be (to my knowledge) the earliest vortex splitting event on record (most occur in Jan-Feb).


If the stratospheric vortex splitting event were to occur as forecast, it would also have substantial implications on the evolution of the vortex for the rest of the winter season. The last time we had a weak stratospheric vortex near this magnitude this early in the winter season was Nov 1996 (linked to the re-intensification of TC-Dale as an extratropical cyclone and a vortex displacement event). By late December 1996 the stratospheric portion of the vortex recovered and by March 1997 we had the coldest Arctic stratosphere observed in the satellite era (associated with low Arctic ozone and cold European temperatures).

[Mucka]

Hmmmmm

 

[January Snowstorm]

Big swing towards cold this evening. 18z not far away from being epic

[feb1991blizzard]

Big swing towards cold this evening. 18z not far away from being epic

 

If you think the GFS op was good then try the parallel for size,

 

 

HERE SHE COMES - THE SIBERIAN EXPRESS

 

 

BIG UNDERCUTTER

 

 

 

-8c hitting with -12c poised!!!!     BOOM!

 

 

 

 

  :yahoo:      

Edited November 6, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[weathergeek]

Was that a good year? I was born in Jan 77, my mom always goes on about it being typical me, an awkward so and so, she had to endure being pregnant in the heat of 76 and says it snowed in the winter

Exactly the same here! Jan 77 baby! We lived on a hill too so I remember very good winters in the 80's as a kid!!x

[feb1991blizzard]

Exactly the same here! Jan 77 baby! We lived on a hill too so I remember very good winters in the 80's as a kid!!x

 

Yes, mid 80s all corkers culminating in the daddy of them all, 87 jan, 2 weeks nearly off school, which was my prime reason for loving snow then and got me into it - I hated school.

[Due South]

Yes, mid 80s all corkers culminating in the daddy of them all, 87 jan, 2 weeks nearly off school, which was my prime reason for loving snow then and got me into it - I hated school.

87 or 85?

[weathergeek]

Exactly that! We had so many snow days off cos the coach that came up Boxhill to take us to school couldn't get up or there was worry we wouldn't get home! So the snow = excitement psyche was born, lol!x

[bluearmy]

Steve's thread is meandering ...................

[KyleHenry]

I'll say one thing of similarity to 2009 is that the BDO ozone is beginning to set up in same region( Alaska to East Canada) more time is needed to do proper comparisons.

Unfortunately with 1976, I don't have data for as it was test period for satellite data.

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/monthly/monthly_2014-11_NH.html

2009 as you can see by going through daily November images the ozone concentration remained in this sector for entire month and did not reside above UK.

Could be said this is the key to open a way for Canadian Strat warming wave. Awaits to be seen.

[ColdFront80]

Today's ECMWF chart at 00z I treat with some caution it seems OTT but the signs are the high pressure at northern latitudes are growing. To me it looks like this winter could be a colder one. Doesn't mean extreme but certainly I am looking forward to winter this year.

[ColdFront80]

This is quite dramatic.

[KyleHenry]

Typhoon Nuri is such a big player affecting Aleutian region and I feel preventing PV from forming by attacking it from below.

I'm being genuine once again a similar pattern of Typhoon path and timing pops up... 2009

Typhoon Lupit

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Pacific_typhoon_season

Follows exact path. Lead to Arctic outbreak US then to an amplified pattern to the N Atlantic.

Resulted in major low pressure systems pilling in to British Isles causing major flooding events.

Pattern change only occurred 16th December 2009 to colder which in turn lead the iconic photograph of 10th Jan 2010.

So if pattern continues as 2009, prepare for 5 weeks of floods. Starting in approx 10 days.

I'm aware of 2009 being at solar min and comparison years of solar min result in UK having it's most extreme winters.

But volcanic activity this year from Kamchatka, Philippines South America and even Iceland has released large volume of SO2 into Trop and Strat, this must be acknowledged as an important factor.

So sounding like a broken record 2009 stands out again Amen to that.

[SMU]

Hi Kyle-

 

Its not the typhoon driving the pattern as such....

 

Its the background signals that are driving the depth of the typhoon that then drives the Alaskan ridge....

 

Thanks for the comments though guys...

 

 

Another update coming this weekend RE: 2014 Stratosphere.......................

[KyleHenry]

The rumour mill has OPI final result as -2.41.

Yes Steve, my quote wasn't reading right the major factors is the main influence on the ridge.

My thoughts were too focused on temps of pacific and pattern that allowed Nuri to take this path.

Nuri has it's part to play

Edited November 8, 2014 by KyleHenry

[summer blizzard]

Typhoon Nuri is such a big player affecting Aleutian region and I feel preventing PV from forming by attacking it from below.

I'm being genuine once again a similar pattern of Typhoon path and timing pops up... 2009

Typhoon Lupit

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Pacific_typhoon_season

Follows exact path. Lead to Arctic outbreak US then to an amplified pattern to the N Atlantic.

Resulted in major low pressure systems pilling in to British Isles causing major flooding events.

Pattern change only occurred 16th December 2009 to colder which in turn lead the iconic photograph of 10th Jan 2010.

So if pattern continues as 2009, prepare for 5 weeks of floods. Starting in approx 10 days.

I'm aware of 2009 being at solar min and comparison years of solar min result in UK having it's most extreme winters.

But volcanic activity this year from Kamchatka, Philippines South America and even Iceland has released large volume of SO2 into Trop and Strat, this must be acknowledged as an important factor.

So sounding like a broken record 2009 stands out again Amen to that.

 

First sub zero mean was the 18th i think in 09 but the pattern actually changed to below average around a week before that..

 

[Winter Cold]

Well thats a big kick in the teeth from Fergie on the model thread

I wonder if they also gave December 2010 a 10% chance at this stage?

 

Im still in Steves camp though, he is just brilliant at watching and knowing the models and if he thinks something is brewing...then it is! 

[summer blizzard]

Well thats a big kick in the teeth from Fergie on the model thread

I wonder if they also gave December 2010 a 10% chance at this stage?

 

Im still in Steves camp though, he is just brilliant at watching and knowing the models and if he thinks something is brewing...then it is! 

 

Be wary. As great as Steve is, he is certainly guilty of looking for gold where there is none at times.

 

With that being said, this is not one of those times. There's are 2 or 3 different ways we can get cold out of this hemispheric profile and i suspect the Met Office will move into line for the 10-15 day timeframe.