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Steve Murr

WINTER 2014 / 15 PRELIMINARY VIEW - * COLD , POSSIBLY VERY COLD + DRIER THAN AVE *

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Terrific analysis as ever Steve, and funnily enough my own very brief research would also suggest the highest likelihood of the coldest month being January.

The only wildcard at play here is adding solar flux > 110 in to the equation, with no single analogue year displaying -QBO, Weak El Niño and the sub -1.5 OPI. But if you take the best blend of this, which would be to add 2012/13 in to the analogues for the -QBO, < -1.5 OPI and El Niño years, the net effect is nothing too disturbing.

Thanks again for a great read.

SK

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Great read Steve and very well presented. Let's hope we pull off some of those low CET's. Would be great to get 1 month with a negative CET if the timing of the cold permits! Looking forward to watching this develop within the models.

Clem

Edited by Fingers

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Steve - a brilliant and well reserched piece of work.

I wish I could present the data so clearly.

Is this your real stab at forcasting the winter conditions, or is it just the analogue for a very low OPI Index?.

In poker terms are you going 'all in'.

If so you must be extremely confident in this technique. If it is correct and turns out to be correct, you may get an envelope from the MO, early next year!!!!!

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Absolutely a brilliant post Steve , well done to you, a lot of hard work and ten likes even as you were building it. you are an asset to the forum. Thank you for being here. 

i have no questions about your analogies... just really looking forward to the fruition of a winter that delivers the goods and pays its debt from last winter. 

 

Heres a couple of virtual pints for you fella :drunk:

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Well done Steve - let's hope the OPI doesn't let us down! Wherever you look, January is the month most likely to deliver a below average month, perhaps significantly so. (Except in every GCM long range model that is!) And I think that you have highlighted the risks with December and Feb.

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Cheers Snowking-

 

I forgot to say-

 

December is the tricky one & very much dependent on how fast the wave 1 Activity can influence the UK Via the -AO/-NAO Coupling.

 

The average date across the piste across all years where the modality of the AO swings into sub -1 territory is :

 

Dec 12th, although the more Negative the OPI years ( sadly only a sample of 2 go for Pre 10th ) even Late November....

 

So at this stage it seems logical in line with the high activity of wave 1 that the Tail of November & the start of December could herald the blocking were looking for....

 

S

 

PS Snowking- 12/13 was on the fringes as with many other years, but didn't get a -2 AO.... but was very close & because of the difference of -1.7 AO & -2 AO probably negligible....

Edited by Steve Murr

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Thanks Steve for all your hard work, i'm hoping for the cold signal to persist so we at least have 6 below average months to make up for most of this years warmth.

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Fantastic summary as always Steve  :clapping:

 

Much more optimism this year going forwards as opposed to last years horror show.

 

Lets hope Winter 2014/15 delivers the goods for all.

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Great work - wish you all the best as your 'really putting it out there' to speak as regards to this winter. But could change to a degree come the end of November with more of a final forecast? 

Edited by Froze were the Days

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Yes November will be the final forecast-- there is still variables to come next month, but fortunately signs of how they are going all across the month!

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Steve

Great read/depth of reasoning...yet again. Now one big question, I see plenty where you are coming from without a doubt. What in your thoughts throughout Nov will put your prelim ideas under severe pressure? For me you already have a strong case.

For me the OPI and SAI are potentially 'symptons' /response of a preloaded pattern but the OPI may well be a top way of reading the preloaded pattern.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Steve

Great read/depth of reasoning...yet again. Now one big question, I see plenty where you are coming from without a doubt. What in your thoughts throughout Nov will put your prelim ideas under severe pressure? For me you already have a strong case.

For me the OPI and SAI are potentially 'symptons' /response of a preloaded pattern but the OPI may well be a top way of reading the preloaded pattern.

BFTP

 

The biggest worrys for me are a decrease in the Wave 1 wavetrain & the Positive Temp anomalies in the stratosphere not occurring where they should be!!

S

 

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The biggest worrys for me are a decrease in the Wave 1 wavetrain & the Positive Temp anomalies in the stratosphere not occurring where they should be!!

S

ally

So on that basis Steve you are thinking specifically our neck of woods? Of course that's the winter forecast ie its UK/Ireland we are thinking but as mentioned -ve NAO is only any good for us if its east based.

BFTP

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Great stuff Steve, like the reverse engineering of the OPI against the AO, think you have opened up a new boundary for the OPI team, whilst setting them a massive re-analysis task. Clever use of the time series, look forward to reading the final forecast in November. Have also spotted that West Based NAO in some analogs so a good caveat to include. 

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A thorough analysis there Steve,a lot of work and well presented.

Good stuff.

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Thanks for that Steve, this forum goes from strength to strength, with work like this and the Stratospheric thread, really adding fantastic knowledge and reasoning year on year.

Much appreciated, now waiting for the next piece of the puzzle to do it's stuff.

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excellent post steve and could well be very much on the money.

very easy on the eye very well put together lots of very detailed information put in thanks fella appreciate the time effort you put in not just this year every year. :cold:  :cold:  :cold:  :cold:  :cold:  :cold:  :cold:  :cold:  :cold:

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Steve
Some bad news, really bad news........Madden has forecast a really cold winter AND chosen January as the coldest most wintry month.    :shok:  

I hope that doesn't put the mockers on it :D

 

Oh, yours has sound reasoning....that'll be the difference :)

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Oh Steve, you have brightened my morning!

Great post, you have a real knack for presenting complicated data in a simple format.

 

This all goes along with what I have been seeing in the OPI and snow and ice numbers.

 

As someone said last year on here - Get the cold in and the snow will follow.

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Nice work Steve!

 

As you say, no reanalysis for the below years but Meteociel have them in the archive in NH view - 15 day, mouse-over format makes it relatively simple to run through the pattern and get an idea of the month October.

 

1899/1900     2.2   4.4   2.6

1916/1917      1.9    1.6   0.9  

1928/1929     3.4   1.3    0.4

1935/1936     2.8   3.7   2.6

1939/1940     3.2  -1.4   2.6

1940/1941     3.8    0.5   3.5

 

Starting with October 1899 - just change the year for others.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=10&day=16&year=1889&map=4&hour=0

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Nice initial work there Steve, I'm surprised you've taken the plunge this year? Is that due to the early positive (for cold) signals we're seeing or were you going to do one anyway?

 

Anyway good luck with it, look forward to reading your final forecast!

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Same as the others - a great job on your Winter forecast Steve Murr. Backed up by quite a fair number of charts with good analyses on the October Pattern Index and Artic Oscillation. If the likely negative October Pattern Index this month does indeed lead to a cooler/colder Winter this year, will try to take more notice of it in future. Anyway, me and our Netweather army will be sending a 50cm dumping of snow to your house for all your hard work on this forecast (it should arrive by November 25th according to the weather mail)...

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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