November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts

[Roger J Smith]

I struggle to understand how long term monthly averages (such as 30 year averages) tell us what to expect in a given month. Surely some of the averages can be distorted by the odd exceptionally mild or exceptionally cold month...? Is there such thing as a modal average, which tells us a typical daily temperature for a given month?

 

Sorry to be obtuse, but the 30-year average is the recognized standard. Some climates are bimodal meaning there are clusters of mild and cold months and the long-term average often is not close to what actually happens -- but the CET zone displays a fairly bland bell-curve around the averages.

[Festivefreeze]

Well thanks for explaining Roger. I know I have a lot to learn.

[virtualsphere]

Well thanks for explaining Roger. I know I have a lot to learn.

 

Worth taking a look at Roger's posts at the start of each CET month thread, if you haven't already, which have details of the all-time high and low records as well as some of the recent figures and longer term averages for both recent and historical periods.  I always have a good look before posting an entry in the competition (not that it helps with my accuracy!) and if you just want to get a flavour of how the month may pan out, they are a very useful guide.

[Harve]

I struggle to understand how long term monthly averages (such as 30 year averages) tell us what to expect in a given month. Surely some of the averages can be distorted by the odd exceptionally mild or exceptionally cold month...? Is there such thing as a modal average, which tells us a typical daily temperature for a given month?

A 30 year average is long enough for an exceptional month not to distort the average too much (well, unless 5.7c looks a lot different to 5.9c to you). If we were talking about 5 year averages, then what you're saying would definitely make sense.

[Festivefreeze]

Thanks for making me aware of that, virtualsphere. I'll be sure to take a look at those posts. Roger explained that the CET zone as a bell curve around the averages. What does this actually mean?

[Festivefreeze]

Harve, I had really thought about that. But now that you've explained it I can see what you mean I think. You're basically saying that 30 years is long enough for exceptional values to only slightly affect the figure since exceptional months (e.g. December 2010) are rare anyway, right...?

 

Thanks for explaining.

Edited November 17, 2014 by November2005Fan

[Festivefreeze]

Thanks for posting that graph. I can see why they call it a bell curve...shaped like a bell.

How then is the CET different from other averages? Can anyone explain this to me please?

[SomeLikeItHot]

Thanks for posting that graph. I can see why they call it a bell curve...shaped like a bell.

How then is the CET different from other averages? Can anyone explain this to me please?

 

Averages are good description  of the situation where most results are near the middle  like in the bell curve above.

 

But if you get a bi modal distribution (ie outcomes are either higher or lower than the average but rarely near it) then the average is not a good description of what is typical.  If you stand with one foot in a bucket of ice and the other in a bucket of near boiling water, you don't feel warm despite what the average temperature may say.

 

AS for places that have temperatures that switch like that I'm not sure but I'm sure it happens somewhere.

[Festivefreeze]

Thanks, SomelikeitHot, so basically it explains how the averages have come about (i.e. what they have been made up of)?

[Summer Sun]

9.2c to the 17th

 

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[Festivefreeze]

Do you think it will finish close to that figure, or is a decline likely?

Edited November 18, 2014 by November2005Fan

[summer blizzard]

Still think i'm sitting pretty in the early 8C's looking at the models (assuming a correction). 

[Festivefreeze]

So cooler weather is expected?

[Summer Sun]

Do you think it will finish close to that figure, or is a decline likely?

 

As things stands I'd say somewhere in the range of 8.3 to 8.7c

[Festivefreeze]

Would that break any records?

[Festivefreeze]

According to Weather Outlook a disturbance leading to exceptionally mild air is expected across the country at the weekend, with maxima and minima looking well above average for Friday and Saturday. Thereafter it becomes chilly in the north but stays mild in the south. We then into the last week of November, so it doesn't look as though the temperature will be falling too much. Let's hope the outlook changes drastically and starts to pick up on something much colder soon.

Edited November 19, 2014 by November2005Fan

[ARTDEMOLE]

That may happen Mid December.....

[BornFromTheVoid]

9.2C to the 18th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2014

 

The minimum today is 6.5C while maxima look like reaching about 10C, so we'll probably still be on 9.2C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS parallel has the CET at:

9.1C to the 20th (8.4)

9.1C to the 21st (9.0)

9.1C to the 22nd (9.4)

9.1C to the 23rd (7.8]

9.0C to the 24th (6.9)

8.9C to the 25th (5.8]

8.8C to the 26th (7.1)

 

We won't reach average this November, so it's now a case of how far above average will things end up. There is still quite a lot of uncertainty, even for the next 5 days, so I'd guess that the likely finishing range would be between 8.1C and 9.3C before corrections, and 7.7C to 9.3C after corrections.

Edited November 19, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[Lettucing Gutted]

If the CET finishes equal to 2011 or warmer than we will have the smallest August to November cooldown on record.

[Festivefreeze]

The lack of cold nights has been really annoying.

[Summer Sun]

9.2c to the 19th

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

CET only needs to be higher than 0.08c for the rest of the year now to get the warmest CET year on record

[reef]

9.2c to the 19th

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

CET only needs to be higher than 0.08c for the rest of the year now to get the warmest CET year on record

Not only that, but if we were to finish on 9.2C, then December would only need to be around 1.0C above the 1981-2010 average to make it an 11C CET year for the first time.

[Lettucing Gutted]

The lack of cold nights has been really annoying.

Yes indeed, all periods post June 2013 have been a far cry from January though June 2013 apart from November 2013 and August 2014.  Even taking into account the huge background warming it's still unbelievable how a six month period with the most air frosts since 1979 can give way to such an even longer frostless period at the drop of a hat.

Edited November 21, 2014 by Craig Evans

[Summer Sun]

9.1c to the 20th

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum of 5.1C and maxima likely to hit about 8C, the CET should be at 9.0C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS parallel has the CET at:

9.1C to the 22nd (10.2)

9.0C to the 23rd (7.0)

8.8C to the 24th (4.8]

8.7C to the 25th (6.5)

8.8C to the 26th (9.9)

8.7C to the 27th (7.3)

8.7C to the 28th (7.3)

 

A warmer than average week coming up, but still cool enough to bring the CET gradually down. At this stage, a finishing range of 8.3 to 9.0C before corrections, and 7.9 to 9.0C after corrections looks likely.