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Roger J Smith

November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts

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The minimum today is 7.6C while maxima look like reaching the mid 12s, so an increase to 8.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS parallel has the CET at:

9.2C to the 12th (11.6)

9.3C to the 13th (10.4)

9.5C to the 14th (12.3)

9.5C to the 15th (10.3)

9.6C to the 16th (10.0)

9.5C to the 17th (9.4)

9.6C to the 18th (11.1)

 

Despite a cool few days just passed, the GFS parallel run would put us in the top 10 mildest first 18 days by the 18th.

 

Already, it's looking very likely that we'll see a another above average month, with an end of the month like 2005 or 1996 needed to take things back close to average.

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What with the exceptionally mild first few days to this month, and the mild nights we are experiencing, no wonder the CET is above average to the 13th. Let's hope for some frosty nights with some sub zero values later in the month to bring the CET back down to average...or at least make it less above average.

Edited by November2005Fan

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9.1c to the 12th

 

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

Edited by Summer Sun
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Minimum today is 8.3C while maxima will probably be around 13C, so an increase to 9.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12Z GFS parallel has the CET at

9.4C to the 14th (11.9)

9.4C to the 15th (10.0)

9.4C to the 16th (9.1)

9.4C to the 17th (9.0)

9.3C to the 18th (7.8]

9.2C to the 19th (8.2)

9.3C to the 20th (10.1)

 

Consistently mild to very mild days, but nothing quite exceptional.

 

 

Would some sub zero night time values later in the month be enough to bring the value back to average?

 

Provided we are at 9.3C to the 20th, the last 10 days would have to average 2.8C or lower to reach average. This has happened just 4 times in the last 30 years, 2010 (0.8C), 2005 (2.8C), 1993 (1.3C) and 1985 (2.8C).

However, downward corrections at the end of the month could mean that an average in the low 3C for the last 10 days might be enough.

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All models seem to suggest that we will see a period of cyclonic but relatively mild weather from around the 20th so i'd like to think i'm sitting pretty in the 8C's.

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Attention will then turn to whether we could get a record warm CET year, only needs an anomaly of +0.44 for the rest of the year.

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This year has been seriously warm not only in our part of the world but globally, I know December can flip cold in a few days but it will take something serious to break this pattern of anomalous warmth!! I was driving near stockton today and saw a moth or butterfly in the headlights, and my mams flowers are growing still. Crazy times indeed!!!

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Let's face it, it would take something exceptional to return this November to average now. We would need a second half like 2005 or 2010 - funny how those two were so close together isn't it?

Edited by November2005Fan

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Whilst minima here have been held at the most part well above average, maxima have been preety average in the 8-10 degree range. It hasn't so far felt particularly mild given the lack of sunshine and much cloud and rain..

 

Indeed its been a thoroughly dank miserable November so far and this theme looks to continue - no sign of those crisp sunny frosty autumnal days.. nor fog.. which has all but disappeared in recent autumns it seems.

 

I suspect ground soil temps are well above average and wouldn't be surprised if spring bulbs appear in time for December - but many yesteryears have seen early spring growth at this time of year killed very quickly with severe wintry conditions.

 

2014 is shaping up to be a year almost devoid of colder than average conditions relative to average, with only 2-3 weeks in August seeing below average temps. Looking forward to much more mixed conditions in 2015 I hope, I think its more than coincidence this sustained period of anomalous warmth has occurred at and just after the solar cycle maxima - 2000 was the same - also a very wet year.

Edited by damianslaw
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Speak for yourself damian, everyday this week here apart from Thursday has had long sunny intervals making it feel very springlike with butterflies around.

Edited by Eugene
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Couldn't agree more Damianslaw. Daytime temperatures have felt distinctly seasonal. It's the succession of mild nights that has caused this November (to date) to be above average temperature wise. Having said that though I was walking my four-legged friend in the park on Wednesday afternoon, and I was surprised at how strong the sun felt at 2:30pm. This seems rather strange considering that the sun is just weeks away from reaching its most southerly declination now...surely?

Edited by November2005Fan
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Maxima have held up around 9-13c here, distinctly average; only issue is minima have been almost identical to them, as is often the case in recent Autumns, very frost free November so far.

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Am I right in thinking that in order to get the daily mean temperature, I add the maximum daytime temperature to the minimum night time temperature (subtract the minimum if it is a negative value). Add all the daily means together at the end of the month and divide by the amount of days?

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Sunny Sheffield at 8.4C a drop today though as it's a rare cold day.

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Am I right in thinking that in order to get the daily mean temperature, I add the maximum daytime temperature to the minimum night time temperature (subtract the minimum if it is a negative value). Add all the daily means together at the end of the month and divide by the amount of days?

 

Yes, that's the way its done.

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Speak for yourself damian, everyday this week here apart from Thursday has had long sunny intervals making it feel very springlike with butterflies around.

 

 

Yes sunshine levels have been variable across the UK so far this month. Here we have had little sunshine and I suspect many other places notably NE Scotland has seen little.

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Thanks for confirming that. I just wanted to check that I was on the right track. So if for example one day the maximum daytime temperature was 7c and the night time low was -2. The overall temperature that day would be 2.5c?

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9.3c to the 15th

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

Edited by Summer Sun
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With a minimum of 6.3C and maxima in the high 10s, we will probably remain of 9,3C on tomorrow's update.

 

After that, the 06z parallel GFS has the CET at:

9.2C to the 17th (8.4)

9.2C to the 18th (8.7)

9.2C to the 19th (8.8]

9.1C to the 20th (8.7)

9.1C to the 21st (9.0)

9.2C to the 22nd (10.9)

9.3C to the 23rd (10.0)

 

Consistently mild temps keeps the CET from changing too much over the next week, and keeps us in the top 10 warmest Novembers so far. If we are at 9.2 or 9.3C to the 23rd, the final week would have to be pretty much freezing or lower to take us down to average.

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