November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts

[easy-oasy]

6.0 for me please

[DR Hosking]

It will be 8.0c, certain.

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

6.3c FOR ME PLEASE.

MIA

Just seen the strat thread.......

Even Chio is starting to ramp now (albeit heavily caveiated as it is 10days away) so I will reduce from just below average to 5.8C. Not really Chio. I'll do it for you!

I think the OPI is heavily in favour of a mildish Nov but a back loaded winter (Feb in particular).

The SAI is also indicating a more traditional winter ie Jan Feb, but I think that the evidence of the STRAT, OPI, and SAI is enough for me.....

SO going for gold(cold) now at 5.8C

MIA. Hope its low enough.....

Edited October 31, 2014 by Midlands Ice Age

[Weather-history]

6.6C

[Stef]

9.5C Thanks.

[Dancerwithwings]

Was going for something colder but methinks November will be a month of a bit of this and a bit of that .....so pretty average then.....  6.2 celsius CHEERS

Edited October 31, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Polar Maritime]

5.6c Ta.

[Harve]

7.1c

[Roger J Smith]

Have a little of this 5.8 on this Craig Evans sort of a day.

 

 

[DAVID SNOW]

Will  we get a cold snap? Try 6.4 ta.

[Don]

My CET guesses have been a bit wide of the mark lately.  I will go for 7.7C, so another month with average to above average temperatures but with a few cold snaps too.

Edited October 31, 2014 by Don

[seabreeze86]

5.5 for me please

[Nigerian Prince]

I will go with 6.8 as a guess, thank you.  Gender male Location  Battersea, London.

[AderynCoch]

8.0

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Coolish start but then milding up somewhat but with as I suggested a while ago a sudden change to much colder conditions end of month.  CET of 6.7C but could be higher depending on the timing of the cold switch.

 

 

BFTP

Edited October 31, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[A Winter's Tale]

6.9c please

[davehsug]

7.8C please,

[Roger J Smith]

The table of forecasts submitted so far (86 in total, median 6.9 C) can be viewed here:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75427-201213-and-201314-cet-competition-the-scores/page-4#entry3062720

 

The range is 4.1 to 10.5 and the spread is quite large even among the quartiles. Two camps seem to have formed around 7.7 (mild) and 6.2 (cold) rather than the usual bell curve of entries. So the OPI has already had an effect, I suppose, either no polar vortex or polarization.

 

(ha ha or ho ho ho)

 

 

[TonyH]

8.0c please

[Great Plum]

Late again... 6.4c please

[Froze were the Days]

Sorry late as well...6.5c for me.

[reef]

That's weird, I could have sworn I posted a guess a couple of days ago?!

 

My guess is 7.9C, slightly warmer than average.

Edited November 1, 2014 by reef

[Thundery wintry showers]

A bit late, but my guess is 7.3C.  Cyclonic, slightly milder than average in the south, probably slightly colder than average in the north.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Global Warming on TWO is going for a significantly warmer than average November as he states by this article:

So lets look ahead to November.

If we consider years since 1900 where the combined Sept / Oct CET has been 13.3C or more we see that 3 years have gone on to see a cold November with the coldest year being 4.6C in 1921 with 5.4C in 1969. 4 of the 5 most recent years that match the pattern saw a warm November. There were 2 other years close to average.

If we now only consider years where both September and October were more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean and the combined CET was more than 13.3C there are 5 matches. 2 years saw a very warm November being 2006 and 2011, 2 years were average and one (2005) was somewhat below average.

If we also consider years with a cold August then 2011 is really the only decent match and a very close match it is too. That year saw a very warm November indeed with 9.6C.

If we just look at years where the October CET exceeded 12C then several Novembers were a little or a lot above average (5) but an equal number (5) were cooler than average.

So no clear signal really this month. Almost an equal chance of a colder or warmer than average but again a relatively small chance of something close to average. I would say 45% chance of a warm month, 40% chance of a cold month and 15% chance of a close to average month.

From a pure pattern matching position you would go for a warm month based on the strong similarities to 2011 but that would be overly simplistic.

You may have seen my post on Gavin P's latest winter update. To my mind a number of variables other than temperature show a strong correlation to 2009 which also saw a warm September and October and a very warm November.

So on balance I would be inclined to go for another significantly above average month in November

Good pattern watch information.... End of month may yet change things..

[Summer Sun]

13.2c to the 1st

 

4.1c above the 61 to 90 average