November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts

[Summer Sun]

9.1c to the 21st

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Timmytour]

A November CET above 8C, as seems likely to be the case, in a year where the August CET was below 15C, has only ever happened six times previously going back to the year 1700.

Four of the subsequent winters have been more than one degree below the 1700-2013 average, one almost spot on the average, and one was 3.7C above the average!

The first one was 1817, nearly two degrees under the average, the warm winter year was 1881, over 130 years ago and since then we've had 1951/2 (average, anticyclonic and followed by a fantastic March!) 1963/4 (cold, anticyclonic and followed by a decent March), and 1946 and 1978 (nuff said!)

Edited November 22, 2014 by Timmytour

[Summer Sun]

9.2c to the 22nd

 

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

 

Global Warming from TWO is expecting a final CET for this month of 8.5.

 

If it is 8.5c that would see me getting it spot on

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81615-november-2014-your-cet-forecasts/?p=3057128

 

Edited November 23, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Weather-history]

A November CET above 8C, as seems likely to be the case, in a year where the August CET was below 15C, has only ever happened six times previously going back to the year 1700.Four of the subsequent winters have been more than one degree below the 1700-2013 average, one almost spot on the average, and one was 3.7C above the average!The first one was 1817, nearly two degrees under the average,

1817 was probably the most bizarre, craziest, eccentric years in the CET listings.

[Gael_Force]

1817 was probably the most bizarre, craziest, eccentric years in the CET listings.

 

It was also the year of solar max in the second phase of the Dalton: rapid rise to max and equally rapid decline in the space of a few months.

 

[kev238]

It looks likely it will end up at around 8.5 degrees for the month.

This means an average December would lead to the warmest cet on record

That must be a good bet at the moment - I would think there must be an 80% chance of the warmest CET on record for the year .

[Summer Sun]

It looks likely it will end up at around 8.5 degrees for the month.

This means an average December would lead to the warmest cet on record

That must be a good bet at the moment - I would think there must be an 80% chance of the warmest CET on record for the year .

 

As things stand currently before the final CET this month it needs to be higher than -0.18 for the remainder of the year to get the warmest CET year on record

 

Amazing that August is still the only month which was below average all others so far have finished at least 1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

Edited November 23, 2014 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum today of 6.7C and maxima likely to reach the high 8s, the CET should be on 9.1C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS parallel has the CET at

 

8.9C to the 24th (5.1)

8.8C to the 25th (4.1)

8.7C to the 26th (7.2)

8.6C to the 27th (6.8]

8.6C to the 28th (9.1)

8.6C to the 29th (8.0)

8.7C to the 30th (10.3)

 

Finishing range will probably be between 8.5 and 8.9C before corrections, 8.1 to 8.9C after.

[Milhouse]

As things stand currently before the final CET it needs to be higher than -0.18 for the remainder of the year to get the warmest CET year on record

 

Amazing that August is still the only month which was below average all others so far have finished at least 1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

For a year with so many above average months it would be a shame to miss out on the record. One last push 2014, your nearly there!

[Lettucing Gutted]

Amazing that August is still the only month which was below average all others so far have finished at least 1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

If Hurricane Bertha hadn't taken that unusual diving track we wouldn't even had August below average!  The SSTs in the Atlantic were all set for a very warm August.

Edited November 23, 2014 by Craig Evans

[Roger J Smith]

2014 has already been part of one winter futility record -- the coldest day last winter (2.5 C on 23 Nov 2013) broke the previous record for any winter, +1.7 in 1974-75.

 

But a second winter futility record is yet to be determined -- highest value of the annual daily minimum CET value. As last winter's feeble "winner" was not even in 2014, the lowest value so far is 3.0 from the 30th of January. That is way out ahead of the pack, but we have December and what's left of November to settle this one way or the other. The top annual futility values before 2014 (from 1772 on) and all cases 0.0 or higher include:

 

(edit on 1 Jan 2015 -- this is how things turned out, missed by 0.1 ... have not edited the ranks that were posted on date but will repost this in the December thread with new rankings)

 

1. __ 0.9 __ 1863 (11 Jan)

 

2. __ 0.8 __ 2014 (29 Dec)

 

2. __ 0.7 __ 1872 (21 Mar, 11 Dec)

 

3. __ 0.5 __ 1990 (15 Dec)

3. __ 0.5 __ 2004 (29 Jan, 20 Dec) 

5. __ 0.4 __ 1834 (8 Feb)

 

6. __ 0.2 __ 1898 (11 Feb)

 

7. __ 0.0 __ 1975 (14 Dec)

Edited January 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[AderynCoch]

It will be a statistical travesty if 2014 ends up as the warmest year on record (as looks likely). 1990 and 2006 are worthy of being up there because they had a lot of very warm/hot weather on offer. 1995 is too (it only missed out on the record because of the cold December). Not this year - granted, it wasn't the worst summer ever but August was a crushing disappointment. The bulk of the anomalous warmth has come from bland synoptics during the rest of the year; consistently above average rather than exceptionally so, with an emphasis on above-average minima instead of enjoyably-high daytime temperatures.

 

An utterly bland, ready salted year which has no business being the warmest on record. 2011 has no business being second either (or third for that matter, which it looks like it will be soon).

 

Come on December, take one for the team.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I can see the warmest year being broken again at least once more before the decade is out.

Do we have stats available to show how long each warmest year record stood for before being broken again, eg this record being broken less than a decade after being set?

Edited November 23, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[BornFromTheVoid]

I can see the warmest year being broken again at least once more before the decade is out.

Do we have stats available to show how long each warmest year record stood for before being broken again, eg this record being broken less than a decade after being set?

 

That kind of analysis is a little awkward, mainly because the younger a time series is, the more records you'd expect to be broken. So the first 3 years on the CET record were each a record high for their time.

Below show the year, the record temperature set and the number of years the record stood for.

 

Year ..... Temp ..... Time

1659: .... 8.83:......... 1

1660: .... 9.08:......... 1

1661: .... 9.75:......... 5

1666: .... 9.83:......... 20

1686: .... 10.13:....... 47

1733: .... 10.47:....... 101

1834: .... 10.48:....... 115

1949: .... 10.62:....... 57

2006: .... 10.83:....... 8

 

So it took until 1949, 290 years, to record an annual CET above 10.5C. Since then we've gone on to record another 9 of them, and this year even has a chance of going above 11C for the first time.

[DR Hosking]

anyone else wondering why the CET is stil registering above 9c? Ok Saturday was warm, but my local weather station in South Northants was on 8.6c on Sat and is now on 8.4c, and this is in the southern half of the CET zone. Doesnt seem to compute with me that the CET is still showing up above 9c, I am expecting a big downward correction at end of the month.

[Summer Sun]

9.1c to the 23rd

 

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 0.5C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 7s, so a drop back to 8.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS parallel has the CET at

8.7C to the 25th (4.2)

8.6C to the 26th (6.0)

8.5C to the 27th (6.8]

8.5C to the 28th (8.7)

8.6C to the 29th (10.2)

8.6C to the 30th (8.8]

 

The finishing range can now be narrowed to between 8.4 and 8.8C before corrections, 8.0 to 8.8C after corrections.

 

This would mean that for the warmest year on record to the nearest tenth of a degree, a December CET of 4.2C or higher (for a Nov of 8.8C) up to 5.0C or higher (for November of 8.0) is all that's needed.

Edited November 24, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 

That kind of analysis is a little awkward, mainly because the younger a time series is, the more records you'd expect to be broken. So the first 3 years on the CET record were each a record high for their time.

Below show the year, the record temperature set and the number of years the record stood for.

 

Year ..... Temp ..... Time

1659: .... 8.83:......... 1

1660: .... 9.08:......... 1

1661: .... 9.75:......... 5

1666: .... 9.83:......... 20

1686: .... 10.13:....... 47

1733: .... 10.47:....... 101

1834: .... 10.48:....... 115

1949: .... 10.62:....... 57

2006: .... 10.83:....... 8

 

So it took until 1949, 290 years, to record an annual CET above 10.5C. Since then we've gone on to record another 9 of them, and this year even has a chance of going above 11C for the first time.

 

 

Thanks for compiling this, great analysis! and I see what you mean about young time series skew at the beginning.

 

Also really interested to see Larger than average Hobo's figures - 2007 started off really warm!

 

 

[Summer Sun]

8.9c to the 24th

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

8.7c to the 25th

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

8.5C to the 26th

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2014

 

Yesterday was 3.6C. The minimum today is 6.1C while maxima look like reaching the high 8s, so remaining on 8.5C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS parallel has the CET at:

8.5C to the 28th (8.4)

8.5C to the 29th (9.4)

8.5C to the 30th (6.7)

 

So it would now seem as though a range of 8.4 to 8.6C before corrections and 8.0 to 8.6C after corrections is likely.

 

Interestingly, to put yesterday's rather benign CET of 3.6C into perspective, if it had occurred during the last December to February period, it would have been the 5th coldest day of the winter!

[Methuselah]

Blimey! It looks like I might be lucky with the fog...

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Im trying to decide what Dec CET to go for. Last year i got badly burned by predicting a Dec figure well below the finishing level that badly damaged my chances of winning the competition. After that I vowed to call mild every month subsequently that has served me well!

But this mild run cannot last forever.

I'm sensing a switch from mild to cold.

My question to you stats experts is how often in the last 5 years can you remember a notable change from mild to cold and vice versa? I am not talking the odd blip like Aug 2014, but more like when switched from a cold Dec 2010 to a mild Jan 2011 or from a cool spring 2013 to a warm July 2013.

That's asking a more observational question.

A more specific way of asking would be, how many times have we had a very cold CET month following many mild ones.

How many times have we had a very warm/ mild CET month following a series of cooler ones?

Edited November 27, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[BornFromTheVoid]

Actually, January 2011 was 0.1C below the 61-90 average, so not mild at all really!

 

Anywho, an example you might be interested in is 2009. A very mild Autumn, September was 0.6C above, October 1.0C above and November 2.1C above average. Then came December, 1.6C below, January 2.4C below and February 1.0C below average.

Edited November 27, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[summer blizzard]

Actually, January 2011 was 0.1C below the 61-90 average, so not mild at all really!

 

Anywho, an example you might be interested in is 2009. A very mild Autumn, September was 0.6C above, October 1.0C above and November 2.1C above average. Then came December, 1.6C below, January 2.2C below and February 1.0C below average.

 

What are the largest November-December drops.