November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts

[Summer Sun]

9.2c to the 13th

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

[summer blizzard]

All models seem to suggest that we will see a period of cyclonic but relatively mild weather from around the 20th so i'd like to think i'm sitting pretty in the 8C's.

[Nick L]

Attention will then turn to whether we could get a record warm CET year, only needs an anomaly of +0.44 for the rest of the year.

[Continental Climate]

This year has been seriously warm not only in our part of the world but globally, I know December can flip cold in a few days but it will take something serious to break this pattern of anomalous warmth!! I was driving near stockton today and saw a moth or butterfly in the headlights, and my mams flowers are growing still. Crazy times indeed!!!

[Festivefreeze]

Let's face it, it would take something exceptional to return this November to average now. We would need a second half like 2005 or 2010 - funny how those two were so close together isn't it?

Edited November 14, 2014 by November2005Fan

[damianslaw]

Whilst minima here have been held at the most part well above average, maxima have been preety average in the 8-10 degree range. It hasn't so far felt particularly mild given the lack of sunshine and much cloud and rain..

 

Indeed its been a thoroughly dank miserable November so far and this theme looks to continue - no sign of those crisp sunny frosty autumnal days.. nor fog.. which has all but disappeared in recent autumns it seems.

 

I suspect ground soil temps are well above average and wouldn't be surprised if spring bulbs appear in time for December - but many yesteryears have seen early spring growth at this time of year killed very quickly with severe wintry conditions.

 

2014 is shaping up to be a year almost devoid of colder than average conditions relative to average, with only 2-3 weeks in August seeing below average temps. Looking forward to much more mixed conditions in 2015 I hope, I think its more than coincidence this sustained period of anomalous warmth has occurred at and just after the solar cycle maxima - 2000 was the same - also a very wet year.

Edited November 14, 2014 by damianslaw

[Festivefreeze]

November frost and fog a thing pretty lacking in recent autumns, but let's not forget 2005. lol

[Eugene]

Speak for yourself damian, everyday this week here apart from Thursday has had long sunny intervals making it feel very springlike with butterflies around.

Edited November 14, 2014 by Eugene

[Festivefreeze]

Couldn't agree more Damianslaw. Daytime temperatures have felt distinctly seasonal. It's the succession of mild nights that has caused this November (to date) to be above average temperature wise. Having said that though I was walking my four-legged friend in the park on Wednesday afternoon, and I was surprised at how strong the sun felt at 2:30pm. This seems rather strange considering that the sun is just weeks away from reaching its most southerly declination now...surely?

Edited November 15, 2014 by November2005Fan

[Isolated Frost]

Maxima have held up around 9-13c here, distinctly average; only issue is minima have been almost identical to them, as is often the case in recent Autumns, very frost free November so far.

[Festivefreeze]

Am I right in thinking that in order to get the daily mean temperature, I add the maximum daytime temperature to the minimum night time temperature (subtract the minimum if it is a negative value). Add all the daily means together at the end of the month and divide by the amount of days?

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 14th

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.4C a drop today though as it's a rare cold day.

[reef]

Am I right in thinking that in order to get the daily mean temperature, I add the maximum daytime temperature to the minimum night time temperature (subtract the minimum if it is a negative value). Add all the daily means together at the end of the month and divide by the amount of days?

 

Yes, that's the way its done.

[damianslaw]

Speak for yourself damian, everyday this week here apart from Thursday has had long sunny intervals making it feel very springlike with butterflies around.

 

 

Yes sunshine levels have been variable across the UK so far this month. Here we have had little sunshine and I suspect many other places notably NE Scotland has seen little.

[Festivefreeze]

Thanks for confirming that. I just wanted to check that I was on the right track. So if for example one day the maximum daytime temperature was 7c and the night time low was -2. The overall temperature that day would be 2.5c?

[Summer Sun]

9.3c to the 15th

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

Edited November 16, 2014 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum of 6.3C and maxima in the high 10s, we will probably remain of 9,3C on tomorrow's update.

 

After that, the 06z parallel GFS has the CET at:

9.2C to the 17th (8.4)

9.2C to the 18th (8.7)

9.2C to the 19th (8.8]

9.1C to the 20th (8.7)

9.1C to the 21st (9.0)

9.2C to the 22nd (10.9)

9.3C to the 23rd (10.0)

 

Consistently mild temps keeps the CET from changing too much over the next week, and keeps us in the top 10 warmest Novembers so far. If we are at 9.2 or 9.3C to the 23rd, the final week would have to be pretty much freezing or lower to take us down to average.

[Milhouse]

Im looking forward to the end of the month then we will know what December has to exceed in order to give the warmest year on record. Given the way November is progressing, the required December CET will be very achievable.

[Summer Sun]

As things stand the anomaly only needs to be higher than 0.29 for the remainder of the year for the warmest CET year on record

[ARTDEMOLE]

Met Office Hadley   9.2c.  Anomaly 1.8c.  Provisional to 16th.

[Summer Sun]

9.2c to the 16th

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[Festivefreeze]

Any sign of the figure taking a tumble between now and the month's end?

[Festivefreeze]

I struggle to understand how long term monthly averages (such as 30 year averages) tell us what to expect in a given month. Surely some of the averages can be distorted by the odd exceptionally mild or exceptionally cold month...? Is there such thing as a modal average, which tells us a typical daily temperature for a given month?

[Richard2901]

Yes sunshine levels have been variable across the UK so far this month. Here we have had little sunshine and I suspect many other places notably NE Scotland has seen little.

 

It’s been horrific month here. In contrast to November 2013, which managed 117.9 hours sunshine, I've recorded just 28.7 hours so far this month. Aviemore has had only 12.4 hours so far.

 

The past week has been putrid with only 0.2 hours sun, near constant rain and light levels akin to just after sunset all day long under gloomy SE'ly winds. The type of conditions that make you want to shut down completely.

 

The mean for the month to date is 8.1C which is 1.7C above average but since the 12th the mean min has been higher than the long term mean max for this time of year at 9.0C (5.6C above average) and the mean max has been 10.6C (2.3C above average).

 

Similar types of Novembers in the past like 1946, 1951, 1984 and 1997 did not see anything like this ridiculous lack of temperature range with nights nowhere near as mild. 

 

If the predictions of E/SE winds to the end of the month come off it could end up as the dullest month locally since December 2002 and the dullest Autumn since 1977 so yet another exceptionally poor season.

 

I wish there were published data on light levels as well as sunshine because this year has seemed gloomier than anything I can recall even years like 1993 and 1998 which had lower sunshine totals.