Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

13.2c to the 1st

 

4.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

That's just 0.3C below the record high average for the 1st!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Even if both November and December CETs finished up as 0.00 I think the year as a whole would be warmer than last year!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The first 2 days of the month are provisionally ranked as the 5th and 9th warmest respectively, and we already need each other day to be 0.3C below average to reach the 81-10 monthly average.

 

Anyway, with a minimum of 7.1C and a maximum around the high 10s, the CET should drop to around 11.6 or 11.7C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the new parallel GFS has the CET at:

10.6C to the 4th (7.5)

9.8C to the 5th (6.7)

9.5C to the 6th (8.0)

9.7C to the 7th (10.5)

9.8C to the 8th (10.5)

9.8C to the 9th (10.0)

9.7C to the 10th (9.2)

 

A mild, but not exceptionally mild, first 10 days looks likely.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

CET November 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2013 extremes

______________________________________________________

 

 

Date ____ CET mean __ CET cum ____ MAX _________ MIN

 

01 Nov ___ 9.5 ______ 9.5 ________ 13.5 (1894,1982) _ 1.5 (1836)
02 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 14.3 (1821) ______ 0.5 (1880) 
03 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 15.0 (1996) ______ 1.9 (1820)
04 Nov ___ 8.5 ______ 9.0 ________ 14.2 (1946) ______ 0.8 (1845&1848)
05 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.9 ________ 15.4 (1938) ______ 0.8 (1802)

06 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.4 (1772) ______ 0.6 (1868)
07 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.4 (1772) _____  -0.6 (1791)
08 Nov ___ 8.7 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.4 (1852) _____ -1.2 (1812)
09 Nov ___ 8.1 ______ 8.6 ________ 12.5 (1988) _____ -0.5 (1921)
10 Nov ___ 7.9 ______ 8.6 ________ 13.4 (1977) ______ 0.1 (1812)

11 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.0 (2005) ______ 0.3 (1828)
12 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.8 (1938,1947)_ -1.4 (1919) 
13 Nov ___ 7.2 ______ 8.4 ________ 14.6 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1862) 
14 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.3 ________ 13.4 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1925) 
15 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.2 ________ 13.5 (1821) _____ -2.1 (1965) 

 

16 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.1 ________ 13.4 (1997) _____ -2.9 (1901) 
17 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 8.0 ________ 13.1 (1997) _____ -2.0 (1841) 
18 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.2 (1978) _____ -1.6 (1887) 
19 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.7 (1994) _____ -2.1 (1815) 
20 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.8 ________ 12.8 (2009) _____ -1.2 (1829) 

21 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.7 ________ 13.7 (1947) _____ -1.4 (1880) 
22 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.6 ________ 14.4 (1947) _____ -2.3 (1773) 
23 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.5 ________ 13.3 (1947) _____ -4.2 (1858) 
24 Nov ___ 5.9 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.7 (1980) _____ -4.6 (1904) 
25 Nov ___ 6.3 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.1 (1964) _____ -1.5 (1923) 

26 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.3 ________ 12.1 (1983) _____ -1.7 (1904) 
27 Nov ___ 6.0 ______ 7.3 ________ 11.3 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1915) 
28 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.0 (1828) _____ -4.0 (2010) 
29 Nov ___ 5.5 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.2 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1801) 
30 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.1 ________ 12.4 (2001) _____ -1.7 (1973) 

_________________________________________________________________

 

Interesting the drop in mean daily temperatures from 12th to 13th November.
 

Edited by Roger J Smith
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Similar CET stats that RJS posted, but as a graph with the first 3 provisional days included (but with the 61-90 and 1772-2013 averages)

 

Zh5C30f.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Thanks, I checked them and yours are correct. My excel program has your values for the maxes so I must have mentally transposed the numbers when I typed them out (in the historical weather section where I have all these posted). So I changed them there and also here. As to the two min errors on same dates, that was a case of mixing up the numbers and getting one year wrong. Seems like there must have been some kind of a distraction and/or disturbance at that point of my transcribing the numbers from my excel file to the original, and it's not indicative of any errors in the data base, my search program for the extremes was set up correctly and found the right values but I transposed them when typing them here. So that's a relief anyway. Maybe you can check other months when I post them but I will also take a look down my lists and see if I can spot any other typing errors over in the source posting in historical weather. ... Thanks again. Did you create your own list or are you using a published set? My data base is a direct capture of their file onto excel, no typing of numbers except for 2013-14 which I've been adding as we go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

 

Interesting the drop in mean daily temperatures from 12th to 13th November.

 

 

Even in the full history from 1772 there is an observable steeper decline in the average across this period. With the 11th to 17th of Nov average daily temperature decline averaging twice the monthly average of temperature decline per day. Not sure if its statistically significant though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Thanks, LTAH, I have corrected the September data in both places, just a typing error from my set to NW. We can now edit back unlike previous years, wonder when that changed? Assuming OCT was okay and maybe you haven't checked my records for the other nine months, maybe you could have a look in the historical weather section and check my records some time, see if you spot anything DEC and JAN to AUG so I could fix them before they're posted in these threads. No worries if that's a big ask, we can vet them month by month. I may check them in advance too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

With a minimum today of 0.4C and maxima set to reach near 12C, the CET should be around 9.0C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS parallel run has the CET at:

 

9.4C to the 7th (11.5)

9.3C to the 8th (8.8]

9.4C to the 9th (10.1)

9.4C to the 10th (8.9)

9.4C to the 11th (10.0)

9.5C to the 12th (10.5)

9.5C to the 13th (9.4)

 

No daily records under threat, but still a relatively mild week coming up, which could leave the CET around 1C above the 81-10 average, or 1.5-2.0C above the 61-90 average, by the 13th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The 06z GFS parallel run has the CET near 9.4C to the 16th, which would put the first 16 days of November in the top 15 mildest on record.

(I had done my usual post, but got the "web page not available" message when posting and lost it!)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The minimum today is 7.6C while maxima look like reaching the mid 12s, so an increase to 8.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS parallel has the CET at:

9.2C to the 12th (11.6)

9.3C to the 13th (10.4)

9.5C to the 14th (12.3)

9.5C to the 15th (10.3)

9.6C to the 16th (10.0)

9.5C to the 17th (9.4)

9.6C to the 18th (11.1)

 

Despite a cool few days just passed, the GFS parallel run would put us in the top 10 mildest first 18 days by the 18th.

 

Already, it's looking very likely that we'll see a another above average month, with an end of the month like 2005 or 1996 needed to take things back close to average.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wednesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather (i.e nothing that deviates too much from the norm)
  • Location: Wednesbury

What with the exceptionally mild first few days to this month, and the mild nights we are experiencing, no wonder the CET is above average to the 13th. Let's hope for some frosty nights with some sub zero values later in the month to bring the CET back down to average...or at least make it less above average.

Edited by November2005Fan
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wednesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather (i.e nothing that deviates too much from the norm)
  • Location: Wednesbury

Would some sub zero night time values later in the month be enough to bring the value back to average?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Minimum today is 8.3C while maxima will probably be around 13C, so an increase to 9.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12Z GFS parallel has the CET at

9.4C to the 14th (11.9)

9.4C to the 15th (10.0)

9.4C to the 16th (9.1)

9.4C to the 17th (9.0)

9.3C to the 18th (7.8]

9.2C to the 19th (8.2)

9.3C to the 20th (10.1)

 

Consistently mild to very mild days, but nothing quite exceptional.

 

 

Would some sub zero night time values later in the month be enough to bring the value back to average?

 

Provided we are at 9.3C to the 20th, the last 10 days would have to average 2.8C or lower to reach average. This has happened just 4 times in the last 30 years, 2010 (0.8C), 2005 (2.8C), 1993 (1.3C) and 1985 (2.8C).

However, downward corrections at the end of the month could mean that an average in the low 3C for the last 10 days might be enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...