November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts

[Roger J Smith]

November CET means and trivia

15.4 ... warmest day (5th, 1938)
14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)

10.1 ... warmest Nov 1994

9.6 ... second warmest Nov 2011
9.5 ... third warmest Nov 1818
9.4 ... fourth warmest Nov 1938
9.3 ... fifth warmest Nov 1743

7.3 .... ---- mean of 2001-2013 ----
7.1 .... ---- mean of 1981-2010 ----

6.9 .... ---- mean of 1971-2000 ----

6.8 ... ... ... ... 2012 average
6.6 .... ---- mean of 1961-1990 ----
6.5 .... ---- mean of 1901-2000 ----

6.2 ... ... ... ... 2013 average
6.1 .... ---- mean of all years 1659-2013 ----

5.9 .... ---- mean of 1801-1900 ----
5.8 .... ---- mean of 1701-1800 ----
5.5 .... ---- mean of 1659-1700 ----

4.1 .... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985

2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807
2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915
2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782

-0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)
-2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)
-4.6 ... coldest day (23rd, 1890)
__________________________________________________

daily records are for the period 1772 to 2012
monthly extreme values are for the period 1659 to 2012

November displays as much of a historical warming as any month, the mean from 1992 to 2013 was 7.4 C while from 1750 to 1765 the mean was only 5.1 C, similar to the "Dalton minimum" when the average from 1795 to 1820 was only 5.4 C and was 5.1 for the period 1795-1816. These would now be considered cold Novembers (as with 2010). Almost as mild as the recent period, 1938 to 1960 had a mean of 6.9 C.

November has produced the coldest day of the year and also of the winter season about 6% of the past 242 years (15 cases). The last time this happened for the year was 23 Nov 1993, when the mean daily CET was -2.9 C. That was also the coldest day of  winter 1993-94 but last winter also picked up its coldest day on 23 Nov, although that was +2.5 C (the highest such value on record, 1.7 in winter 1974-75 had been the previous mark).

 

SO, MAKE YOUR FORECAST WHEN YOU'RE READY -- DEADLINE WITHOUT PENALTY IS AT MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY 31 OCT, THEN YOU ARE ALLOWED TO ENTER WITH PENALTIES UNTIL THE END OF MONDAY 3 NOV.

Edited October 19, 2014 by Roger J Smith

[summer blizzard]

8.1C.

 

Drier than average with above average pressure but on the whole probably relatively mild and for the west cloudy. Do expect a good northerly for our first real cold plunge though but an 05/10 repeat is unlikely.

[March Blizzard]

Put me down for 5.9C, please.

[simshady]

7.1 please.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Think we are gonna see a very cold 8/9 day spell with snow , but a very mild wk after it . So because of that il go with

6.9c

[Hocus Pocus]

A month of two halves, drier than average with temps slightly above normal the first half with the second half of the month starting cold and unsettled but high pressure sitting over us during the final week of November. Overall temps coming in at 6.8c due to some very cold nighttime minimas during the second half of the month.

[geoffw]

6

[Bobd29]

5.9 for me please.Think it will only be mild for the first few days then progressively colder as HLB exerts it's influence, would not rule out a nice early snowy period last third of nov.

[Rollo]

7.9c with anything remotely cold towards the end of the month.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Going to recycle my october guess. 9.0 for me.

[cheeky_monkey]

ill have the mean number of all the other guesses we have had by the end of the month please and thank you.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's a graph of the November CET (blue) with the 30 year average (red) and linear trend (black).

 

 

 

The October CET looks like finishing somewhere between 11.5 and 12.5C this year. The average November CET, following Octobers between 11.5 and 12.5C, is 6.9C.

 

 

The linear trend over the entire record is +0.35C per century, following this trend gives a November CET of 6.7C this year.

The linear trend since 1850 is +1.1C per century, following this trend gives a November CET of 7.3C this year

The linear trend since 1950 is +1.8C per century, following this trend gives a November CET of 7.4C this year.

The linear trend over the last 50 years is +2.9C per century, following this trend gives a November CET of 7.7C this year.

The linear trend over the last 30 years is +3.6C per century, following this trend gives a November CET of 7.7C this year.

[Summer Sun]

8.5c for me please

[tcc]

7.8 for me please

[Stormyking]

5.7 for me please, I genuinely think as the month goes it will get colder and think we will get a decent cold snap bring the risk of frost, ice and maybe snow, more so towards the end of the month! But not to the extent of November 2010

[damianslaw]

I'll reserve judgement until the end of the month. November can be an exceptionally dreary sort of month, often very dull and overcast and generally damp, but on occasion can deliver wonderful crisp sunny days and cold frosty nights and less often the first snow of the season.

 

Recent Novembers have been a real mish mash of all sorts of conditions. Indeed I have enjoyed a number of recent Novembers since 2005, the exceptions being 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2011 which were plagued by persistant mild southwesterly airstreams. Nov 2005 was a month of contrasting two halves, the second half being cold with some snow and much frost. 2008 was very mixed with a bit of everything - ending with a lovely arctic blast. Nov 2009 exceptionally wet - horrendous! Nov 2010 - preety special ending. Nov 2012 and 2013 were very seasonal overall, nothing exceptional, but both delivered a spell of cold frosty weather and were not particularly wet.

 

Given such variety - we can't say we are long overdue a cold or very mild one, nor a very wet or dry one.

[Weather26]

6.8C for me Please

[Isolated Frost]

8c.

[Mucka]

6.3 please

Edited October 21, 2014 by Mucka

[LincolnSnowstorm]

5.3 is my cold stab in the dark.

Edited October 21, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[Eugene]

8.1C, another mild month, think above average could go on for alot longer yet.

[CongletonHeat]

8.8

[hillbilly]

6.2 thanks

[LomondSnowstorm]

Getting mine in early so I don't forget like I usually do more than because I have a huge amount of confidence in the number:

 

6.7C

A month of three parts - Atlantic dominated to start, anticyclonic interlude mid month and cold arriving by month's end, coming in around average overall.

Edited October 21, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[SMU]

4.9