atlantic Major Hurricane Gonzalo

[summer blizzard]

Still that very strong black convection. This suggests further intensification once the eyewall replacement cycle completes as things stand.

 

Edited October 15, 2014 by summer blizzard

[Sainsbo]

ERC seems to have finished and it looks to be intensifying again. The eye has cleared and the system has a much better satellite presentation now that shear has decreased. SST's are still quite toasty so I don't see much stopping it from regaining it's Cat. 4 status for a while.

[Vorticity0123]

ERC seems to have finished and it looks to be intensifying again. The eye has cleared and the system has a much better satellite presentation now that shear has decreased. SST's are still quite toasty so I don't see much stopping it from regaining it's Cat. 4 status for a while.

 

It looks like the eyewall is still somewhat open to the southwest, judging form microwave imagery. That being said, I think Gonzalo hasn't looked as good on visible satellite imagery as it does now. However, this can be misleading, as the NHC noted in their discussion:

 

 

 

Although satellite images have recently shown increased

organization, aircraft data suggest that Gonzalo has actually

slightly weakened. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft

measured peak flight-level winds of 118 kt and a peak SFMR value of

99 kt. These data support an initial intensity of 105 kt.

 

However, given the current trends, reintensification into a category 4 hurricane is not out of the question.

 

Below is a 48-hour mimic loop of Gonzalo, beautifully showing the eywall replacement cycle with its previous inner eyewall becoming increasingly tiny and ultimately dissipating on the right side of the outer eyewall, which still could become better organized.

 

CIMSS MIMIC imagery of Gonzalo

 

Sources:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_08L/webManager/basicGifDisplay48.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/160258.shtml

[Steve C]

Category 4, with 140mph winds.

[Boro Snow]

its still expected to hit the uk late monday night early hours of tues morning with it still been a tropical storm

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Dvorak estimates apparently going for 130KT right now with round about 12 hours left to strengthen though the NHC suggest this is the peak.

 

Looks like Fay was simply the warmup act for Bermuda, this could be catastrophic for them.

its still expected to hit the uk late monday night early hours of tues morning with it still been a tropical storm

 

 

 

The white circles mean its extra-tropical (i.e. no longer tropical in its structure). Still, could be the first time we've had one of these since Katia.

[Zenarcher]

GFS 06z has it  weaken as it crosses the Atlantic,

 

 

However it does bring gale force winds during Monday and Tuesday with rain arriving on Monday evening and staying around for most of Tuesday. Something to keep a watch on for now.

[Nick L]

GFS 06z has it  weaken as it crosses the Atlantic,

 

 

However it does bring gale force winds during Monday and Tuesday with rain arriving on Monday evening and staying around for most of Tuesday. Something to keep a watch on for now.

 

ECM is having none of it, however. One to keep an eye on though certainly.

[summer blizzard]

Estimated pressure now 938mb, 940mb confirmed from a dropzone.

 

An upgrade would make it the strongest since Igor 2010.

 

Trying hard to be symmetrical..

 

[summer blizzard]

Rain contaminated but we have a 135KT reading in the north east quad.

 

Probably only at 145mph confirmed at the moment, advisory will be interesting.

 

947mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 124 knots (143 mph)

945mb 115° (from the ESE) 129 knots (148 mph)

941mb 120° (from the ESE) 129 knots (148 mph)

936mb 125° (from the SE) 138 knots (159 mph)

923mb 135° (from the SE) 141 knots (162 mph)

917mb 140° (from the SE) 147 knots (169 mph)

916mb 140° (from the SE) 135 knots (155 mph)

912mb 145° (from the SE) 144 knots (166 mph)

905mb 150° (from the SSE) 127 knots (146 mph)

901mb 150° (from the SSE) 132 knots (152 mph)

[summer blizzard]

NHC went with 940mb, 145mph.

[Somerset Squall]

With sustained winds of 125kts and pressure of 940mb, this is the strongest storm since Igor in 2010. Ophelia in 2011 also has pressure of 940mb, but 120kt winds.

[lorenzo]

Enter stage right...

 

 

[Vorticity0123]

Enter stage right...

 

Nice image, really showing the very small eye Gonzalo had in its first few days as a hurricane.

 

NHC went with 940mb, 145mph.

 

This also appears to be becoming the final peak intensity of Gonzalo, as, probably fortunately for Bermuda, a second EWRC (eyewall replacement cycle) is on the way. The NHC noted that a concentric eyewall structure had developed, meaning some gradual weakening is possible in the near term. This doesn't take away, though, that Bermuda will likely take a major beating from this cyclone. 

 

The double eyewall structure can also be seen in CIMSS MIMIC imagery:

 

CIMSS MIMIC imagery of Gonzalo. Note that the image auto-updates itself.

 

The red colours commonly indicate the presence of an eyewall. As of 21:00 UTC, it can be seen that a large outer eyewall exists, along with a broken inner eyewall (open to the southwest, shown by the fact that the inner red circle does not fully encompass the cyclone).

 

A nice satellite animation of the track of Gonzalo can be seen below:

 

GOES-13 satellite loop of Gonzalo.

 

Sources:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/162031.shtml

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/

Edited October 16, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[Lincs Observation]

MSN Article on the home page makes interesting reading

 

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/hurricane-gonzalo-to-hit-bermuda-then-ireland/ar-BB9sq5p

[knocker]

GFS Sat 06z and Tues 06z

 

[Paul]

Nick's posted a blog having an in depth look at Gonzalo's track across the Atlantic and potentially toward the UK:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6230;sess=

[summer blizzard]

Second ERC is essentially complete but it looks to me as if a bit of westerly shear and a general lack of fuel (shame we did not get this a month or two ago) are resulting in weakening. Ragged eye and solid but not especially deep convection. 

 

Bermuda are just picking up the outer bands.

 

[summer blizzard]

Wow, bad luck Bermuda.

 

Just look at the scale of what they are facing.

 

[Summer Sun]

Live web camera from port bermuda

 

http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

 

If you have ad blocker you will need to disable it for that page otherwise the video won't load

[Jax]

Live web camera from port bermuda

 

http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

 

If you have ad blocker you will need to disable it for that page otherwise the video won't load

Good link, I have ABP and it views fine (think it depends on how much and what you block if it stops the video playing)

[Lauren]

Really starting to pick up there now. I was surprised to see the late Bermuda flight go out of Gatwick yesterday as I thought the airport and surrounding airspace was closing last night, so it wouldn't have time to get there and turnaround.

 

EDIT: Looks like it took off back to LGW just 10 minutes before the airport shut. Today's flight is unsurprisingly cancelled and flights are giving Bermuda a wide berth of FlightRadar24.

Edited October 17, 2014 by Lauren

[summer blizzard]

Direct link, some of the taller palm trees look like they may be starting to struggle.

 

[Boro Snow]

conditions are deteriorating rapidly in bermuda with wind gusts approaching 45mph at the airport, saying that watching the link gav kindly left the wind looks more than that when looking at the trees, looking at the radar the eyewall is probs about 5-6 hours out from the island 

[Hodgheg]

Intestesting TAF from the airport. Sounds like they are expecting the eye to pass close.

 

 

 BECMG 1722/1724 15090G120KT TEMPO 1723/1801 VRB25KT BECMG 1800/1802 27090G120KT BECMG 1802/1804 27065G90KT