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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

What's the best way to measure heat flux in the lower stratosphere?

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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

Dont suppose any of the top dogs on here are prepared to have a friendly punt as to how they see the strat panning out this winter?

Taking all variables into account.Cheers.

Im no top dog in fact I'm not even in the kennels but I would take a punt at a more blocked pattern occurring mid January onwards.
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The 6z enhances somewhat the small warnings. It has to be said though that this often is the 'warmest' run of the day.

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

Well if you thought 6z was good, along came 12z, slightly furthering the shift in the balance of power. We will see how long it will keep up with it. I checked the input data, and both 6z and 12z are clean.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

If this warming continues to be surprised to see some model volatility in the next couple of weeks!!could also be some pretty cold looking charts if that warming takes effect!!

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

If this warming continues to be surprised to see some model volatility in the next couple of weeks!!could also be some pretty cold looking charts if that warming takes effect!!

It is too far in FI to show in the model charts yet. But any decent warmings in the next few weeks can have an impact in December (my favourite month!)

Well if you thought 6z was good, along came 12z, slightly furthering the shift in the balance of power. We will see how long it will keep up with it. I checked the input data, and both 6z and 12z are clean.

Yes, that's the best run so far and very encouraging that it is taking over from where the 6z left.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Looks like a top down warming underway, any ideas whether it will end up strong enough to propagate and disrupt the tropospheric vortex in late Nov?, this question particularly aimed at Chiono, Recretos, interitius and the like.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Very frustrating having the strat charts out to T+384, because we cant help but look at them and think that they may be accurate. The latest GFS run being a case in point - once again we see more evidence of wave 1 activity with an associated warming from day 10 plus - it always hovers there like a wasp annoyingly out of reach.

 

To highlight this, I found a few examples this morning on my work computer of suggested SSW's at the end of GFS runs from last year that failed to materialise. These are great charts that we would like to see later on this January but at T+0!!

 

post-4523-0-92158800-1414666976_thumb.gi

 

post-4523-0-12823800-1414666989_thumb.gi

 

Still, the mean zonal winds at 10hPa have so far been below average:

 

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/u60n_10_2014_merra.pdf

 

They are forecast to raise before reducing again without going above climatological mean.

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=all&lng=eng

 

As Matt points out above, with November 2 days away we are pretty much in line with where we would expect to be for this winter strat wise and hopefully that continues season long.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Yes, I remember those last year, a really big SSW forecast at one point, I think I let what had gone on the year before cloud my judgement, I kept on predicting a cold snap at some point in Feb based on the fact that the SSW the previous year had counted all the way from 384 for zero without any hiccups.

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Joe B tweeted,due to ssw about to take place,cold could come early.Wonder if he has his own super computer lol.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Joe B tweeted,due to ssw about to take place,cold could come early.Wonder if he has his own super computer lol.

he says that every year 

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

 

To highlight this, I found a few examples this morning on my work computer of suggested SSW's at the end of GFS runs from last year that failed to materialise. These are great charts that we would like to see later on this January but at T+0!!

 

 

I remember too well how those runs were playing around. But I also remember that those runs were with bad input data, with one actually being "red", while this year the runs are fairly good on input data, with no anomalies. 

 

Nevertheless, the GEFS suite, bias corrected, has the vortex a bit displaced from the pole, but otherwise no real surprise. :) Oh, p.s.: And the vortex does not really look that powerful, tho its still in the early stages of intensifying.

2.png 4.png

 

3.png 1.png

Regards

Edited by Recretos
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

joe did not say a ssw is about to take place. he tweeted that a warming is taking place. weatherbell have posted on their blog that this warming will induce a further period of -AO as we saw in october.  is he talking about the warming in two weeks or is he talking about the warming we currently see at 10hpa? i suspect it is the latter and they expect a neg AO to take hold through november as a response.

 

the current warming is nothing spectacular but weatherbell seem to think it will make itself felt. i note that the mean SLP over the arctic in week 2 seems to be around 1020mb on naefs this morning. it does not come with any high geopot anomolys though.  cold high as opposed to a warm one.  could still be the mechanism for a -AO to be in place though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Quick question!!!can we get a period of severe winter weather with a postive nao but a negative ao?

Yes, through an easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Just my two pennies worth as I see it at the moment and that is given the combination of the -ve QBO and the impressive SAI index this winter then the pattern we need to look for through November was highlighted well by Ed last night on twitter and relates to Cohens work, find below the link and importantly the image in question;

 

https://twitter.com/chionomaniac/status/527640784737435648/photo/1

 

The signals within the GFS at long range may well come to fruition and despite the strat being a more 'stable' environment than the troposphere until these signs clearly come into the more reliable time frame then I wouldn't read too much into them. The 240hr time frame is my usual cut off period as this is when the GFS images can be combined with the ECMWF charts for example.

 

Clearly the strat vortex continues to develop and become more potent, as would naturally be expected at this time of year and a more unsettled and zonal spell of weather is to be expected in the coming weeks as a result. However, it is a case of a waiting game and whilst this more unsettled pattern may well not look like being a positive progression, when combined with the other synoptic features, as evident on the image Ed posted, this will, hopefully, in time allow for an increased amount of wave 1 and perhaps wave 2 activity during the middle and latter half of November. This is clearly all connected to Cohens work and theory.

 

Nobody can obviously say how long it will take the vortex to be influenced by these potential 'attacks' through November and most likely into December and I think anyone hoping for a repeat of November 2010 and into December 2010 may well be left rather disappointed.

 

In a nutshell and in my opinion what I believe will happen is that through the latter half of November and into December increased amounts of wave 1 and perhaps wave 2 activity will eventually displace and hopefully split (possible SSW event) the vortex during the early and middle period of the winter. This, as a result, will hopefully lead to a greater amount of northern blocking and the -ve AO pattern that many are hoping to see given the OPI value as well. As for a time period when things *may* get interesting, I'll go with mid to late December onwards with perhaps January really providing the goods, but 'we' may get lucky and get a cold and snowy Christmas and New Year period or at least have the synoptic patterns present to produce cold weather.

 

Time will tell, but here's hoping Cohen's work becomes reality in the coming months just as much as the OPI as both are going to be put to the test this winter and it'll be fascinating to see whether the SAI (Cohen) flow chart which has been doing the rounds of late can be correlated to actual conditions.

 

Regards to all, Matt.

 

Couldn't help but notice on the twitter page... :laugh:

 

@xSomersetGirlxx @chionomaniac The seasonal models are in full agreement for a mild and zonal winter

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

In respect of IB, It's somewhat comforting to know that In the inherently chaotic nature of the atmosphere, something remains very predictable.

The predicted warming high up struggling to gain strong consistency re intensity and timing.

Zonal flow from yesterdays ECM run looks to be weakening in the mid range before strengthening again late on although signs that any strength is around 60N rather than 70N

The forecast sceuro ridge will no doubt reinforce wave 1 activity through November.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Surprised no-one has mentioned day 10 on Berlin site......

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Surprised no-one has mentioned day 10 on Berlin site......

 

Whats happening?, 30mb chart looks good but 10mb looks nothing from ordinary, Looks like somethings upwelling to me?

 

ecmwf30f240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Surprised no-one has mentioned day 10 on Berlin site......

just take a look at the lastest gfs runs!!!some beautifully looking cold charts 10 days from now!!!
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