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chionomaniac

Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

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MJO will be contained for some time, interesting to see which sector it will break out at.

Also when it will as El Niño continues current pattern.

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Edited by KyleHenry

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I just had a thought. Just this week past there have been about 4 category 3/4 hurricanes in the Pacific due to the El Nino. This will be sending warmth right up into the atmosphere. Doesn't this mean that it will warm the tropical stratosphere and decrease the likelihood of stratospheric warmth this winter? I say this because the thermal gradient between the tropical and polar stratosphere impacts on the strength of the vortex does it not? Don't you need a really cold tropical stratosphere and a warm polar stratosphere to prevent the vortex from strengthening? Therefore a warm tropical stratosphere isn't a good sign if you want a weak vortex in winter? So can anyone tell me if the current El Nino which is warming the tropical stratosphere will impact on us come winter? Anyone? Thank you. I know this isn't the media thread but Alex Deakin has just mentioned the warming of the atmosphere from the developing El Nino and the fact that it is warming the atmosphere so I thought it would be relevant to this thread in this instance. I am going to put in a link to the video here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/34159718

It would be great if chionomaniac or Glacier Point could answer so that everyone then knows the impact (if there is any).

Edited by Frozen Britain
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The Typhoons are sending gravity waves if they are large enough Cat 4 plus and moisture towards Aleutians region. Aleutian low ensues.

As illustrated from map Alaska is warmer, rain belt through Southern States and warmer on East Coast.

If El Niño stays true to known effects on US then the jet stream will spill Arctic air into North Atlantic under a + NAO.

UK especially NW will come under NW lows and transient Notherlies.

Must factor in colder SST's regarding moisture levels.

Regarding the Polar Vortex we have to wait until October regarding position and overall temps of the Stratophere to make a call.

At a guess it will be anchored where it has been for last two years so some will be thinking later on towards the end of Winter for SSW's to have desired effect.

As always we have to wait and Solar output is beginning to come into play.

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New EC seasonal forecast for the winter.

 

Continues with 500mb low anomalies near and south of the Aleutians with higher height anomalies once again in NW Canada. This continues into Canada with a weird appendage into eastern Canada as continued from last month, possibly due to low heights near Iceland helping to keep that part of Canada a bit warmer. Low heights also are shown in the srn US with active STJ it appears. Could be split flow city. QPF anomalies look wet up and down the East Coast.  Bottom line is that I do like the anomalies near the Aleutians and higher heights in NW Canada. For those with a srfc temp fetish. Anomalies verbatim from DJFM looked about 0.5 to 1C AN. Temps were near normal over the Mid Atlantic.  http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46257-winter-of-15-16/page-53

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CFSv2 has a generally weaker vortex, displaced towards Iceland to Scandinavia region.

geopotentialheightisobar.pnggeopotentialheightisobar.png

Edited by Recretos
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Look forward to see if your fine musings will have credence to them.

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HI Guys,

 

I released an article yesterday linking strong heights in the Arctic during July, to cold UK winters. Also there seems to be a link to Strat warming's as the years linked had either a sudden stratospheric warming (major) or multiple minor warming's. All the information within can be found via the link but I must say going on my findings, 2015 certainly looks very interesting.

 

http://www.chorleyweather.com/strong-arctic-summer-heights-linked-to-cold-uk-winter/

1995 had one of the longest spells of hot summer weather on record and yet that winter was also one of the best I can remember. I was 7 years old that winter and remember that summer and winter very clearly. A relative of mine got married that summer and I remember very very clearly the longevity of the hot weather that year and then the cold winter that followed. But I hope the article is right that it could potentially bring a cold winter too.

Edited by Frozen Britain
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HI Guys,

 

I released an article yesterday linking strong heights in the Arctic during July, to cold UK winters. Also there seems to be a link to Strat warming's as the years linked had either a sudden stratospheric warming (major) or multiple minor warming's. All the information within can be found via the link but I must say going on my findings, 2015 certainly looks very interesting.

 

http://www.chorleyweather.com/strong-arctic-summer-heights-linked-to-cold-uk-winter/

 

I applaud your efforts, and this possible correlation has been noticed elsewhere.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

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The increased and continued higher than normal heights over Greenland is something I have mentioned a few times.

Good to see some research points to a possible colder Winter.

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I applaud your efforts, and this possible correlation has been noticed elsewhere.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

Thanks for your thoughts and thanks for the the link, I wasn't aware of this. So they use the AO thought as well. I have linked the NAO also but only works with AO values of under -0.70. All very fascinating to say the least. 

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HI Guys,

 

I released an article yesterday linking strong heights in the Arctic during July, to cold UK winters. Also there seems to be a link to Strat warming's as the years linked had either a sudden stratospheric warming (major) or multiple minor warming's. All the information within can be found via the link but I must say going on my findings, 2015 certainly looks very interesting.

 

http://www.chorleyweather.com/strong-arctic-summer-heights-linked-to-cold-uk-winter/

 

The concept is definitely interesting. Thanks for sharing. :)  :clap: Tho there are a few things that could be further discussed or researched. But lets leave that for now. :)

This tho:

So with July 2015 collecting figures of -1.08 on the AO index and a huge -3.14 on the NAO index, this puts 2015 the same category as 50,62,09 which all had very cold winters. 2015 would have to run against 65 years worth of data should it be mild and that wont be easy to do but its not impossible.

 

 

Actually, 2015 would have to go against only 4 or 5 years of data, since that is your actual sample size for your theory. :) It is true that the time span you looked at is that long, but from all those years, you have just about 4 or 5 that actually prove your theory, which is totally fine, but I dont think you can count other years.  :)

 

This:

1968 only had a NAO figure of -0.77 which may have contributed to the lack of a Major Stratospheric warming further down the line, although this theory remains is inconclusive.

 

 

Are you sure you have done your research, because 68/69 might not have a major SSW but had major strat influences :)

 

hgtao1968.gif

 

And:

I must also add that I have researched the QBO, Solar, ENSO and Sea surface temperatures and found that there was great variability in these years and none of the above had helped neither hindered the winter outcome.

 

 

How did you actually prove that none of that either hindered or helped the outcome? Since those are some major climate drivers, which should not be disproved so lightly and making them inferior to your theory. :) Just a hint, since they are among the actual drivers that actually make or break your theory in reality. The summer AO index is not driving the weather literally, but its being driven along the way, in a very roughly sense of course. :) Because in theory it could be that the climate configuration is what made those winters and the correlation with the AO is purely situational, since some of the drivers or forcings have much better long term (decadal) correlations for winter.

 

To make an actual 65 data correlation between the July AO and DJF 500mb heights, this is what comes out:

 

hgt-in-ao.png

 

There is a general signal present, showing the positive AO having a correlation to a positive winter NAO, but the correlation itself is statistically not really significant at all. Tho it is true this is a 3-month mean correlated with one month AO. I averaged the Dec, Jan and Feb 500mb correlations with July AO. The strongest signal was tho present in February, but that is a month with a lot of stratospheric mumbo-jumbos, which could affect the outcome more than the general correlation with the July AO. There is also a possibility of autocorrelation in a sense, since sometimes its the winter patterns that tends to affect the circulation down the line, including spring/summer, especially in a 65 year data sample.

 

it is also true, that you have taken specific years with similar values and you got a decent correlation, which supports your theory, but my data sample does show that there is a lack of general correlation between July AO and winter AO/NAO, tho it is true that some years have a much better correlation, but given that it is a very specific one, we must not talk about a general summer AO influence/correlation, but more of a situational. :)

So in the end, what I am trying to say, is that if your theory would actually go against 65 years of data, its on very weak legs, but as I said, the basis your your theory is very specific, so that changes it a bit. :) it would also help if you would also research what exactly is that affects the outcome of your theory, or why is it that summer AO correlates with winter AO atmospheric dynamics-wise, to further support it or make it even as a forecasting tool. 

Edited by Recretos
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This:

 

Are you sure you have done your research, because 68/69 might not have a major SSW but had major strat influences :)

 

hgtao1968.gif

 

He's missed the fact that 62 and 68 had Canadian warmings in November. Those events seem to have a positive for cold influence on UK winter temps despite other unfavourable signals.

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Agreed to a certain extent.

 

hgtao1962.gif

Edited by Recretos

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What phase of the QBO is expected this winter?

Can you have rising and falling angular momentum (GLAAM) in a strong El Nino? Rising and falling GLAAM is good for cold in winter according to Glacier Point.

The analogues pointed out by Glacier Point for this winter and 1972, 1982 and 1997 - with 1997 and 1982 the closest matches for this year. Can anyone explain the significance of the extratropical interactions observed in the analogue years for winter? Thanks if anyone can offer some input.

It looks like we are now moving into a westerly phase of the QBO for this winter unfortunately. The figure for August was 10.97. Last winter we had a negative (or easterly) phase of the QBO. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Edited by Frozen Britain

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Latest UKMO seasonal output. Please notice the difference between nov-dec-jan and dec-jan-feb. An effect via the stratosphere?

 

Further on, a central based El Nino.

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Well, I dont think so, since I am also running (plotting) the POAMA model, from the Australian BOM office. Their model has a configuration wit 

h very low amp strat signal, so I use it mainly as a model to evaluate trop forcings. It is interesting, because it was portaying the same pattern since early summer, and its not until now that Glosea5 totally bowed down to it, despite having significantly supreme stratospheric forcing.

 

geopht-in-poama20djf2050.png

 

 

geopht-in-12.png

Edited by Recretos
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Am I right in reading those three long rangers predicting above normal upper heights towards Greenland?

 

Recretos's charts above are not a million miles from the anomaly charts that Michael Ventrice of WSI posted on his twitter account which Knocker then put on the ENSO thread. They show different DJF height anomaly scenarios as a function of El Nino strength.

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/COEFgy-UsAEhpIh.mp4

 

Some show positive anomalies over Greenland, others have the positive signal more west-based over Labrador.

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There are certainly a lot of markers that suggest the PDO/ EN combination will deliver a more blocked end to winter via strat feedback. One could almost put a forecast out now suggesting that!

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There are certainly a lot of markers that suggest the PDO/ EN combination will deliver a more blocked end to winter via strat feedback. One could almost put a forecast out now suggesting that!

Thats somewhat true. We also have to note that seasonal models are generally less effective at trop/strat coupling, except the ECM SEAS or perhaps GloSEA5. CFSv2 is currently forecasting a weaker vortex with actually some heat intrusions into the main circulation, but the darn model wouldn't know how to handle an SSW even if it modelled one. :)

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A new post, but a different topic. 

 

A general comparison between the old and new GEFS. I intentionally made the color scale range of only 15K, to better show dynamics. 

 

 

 

And the actual grid, which is in this case the same, at 1°. but it is really obvious from the very start, just how much more dynamics the new GEFS has. Looks quite superb stuff.

 

 

 

And the vortex itself.

 

 

 

And this is the GFS grid, which is so fine, that its hard to tell which one is interpolated and which one shows the actual grid points. :D The one without contours (second) shows the actual grid points. Compared with the interpolated low resolution grid from InstantWeatherMaps.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As far as the stratosphere goes, we have some decent modelling power this year to work with. Especially cool is the GEFS upgrade, with the new GEFS now having the model top at 0.2mb, up from 2mb. its new configuration makes it the best free ensemble forecasting system for strat. One whole logarithmic scale model top increase, makes a big difference, together with improved resolution and up-to-date physics.

 

Personally, this season I will/can plot strat data from GFS, GEFS, JMA GCM, FIM9, NAVGEM, NAEFS, some monthly ens, and occasionally perhaps some from ECM ens. And some CFS or something like that. :D

 

Cheers. 

Only if it comes up with reliable forecasts though........

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True. Considering it is esentially just 21 calculations of the new GFS on a bit lower resolution, it shouldnt do too bad at all, since the new GFS proved to be an upgrade (strat-wise) over its previous version.

We are still waiting for the vertical resolution increase in the GFS tho...

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