Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[feb1991blizzard]

You say big style but as I pointed out, 5 of the last 7 great winters occured at or close to a solar maximum. Even 1962-63 wasn't at a solar minimum.

Why was this?

Some will say well there was a dip in the solar maximum and this is why that winter was severe. If that was the case why wasn't 1995-96, severer? Why wasn't 1984-85 colder? 1984-85 was closer to a minimum than 1978-79 but 1978-79 beats 1984-85 hands down.

There maybe colder winters clustering around solar minima, my question is why the really severe winters of at least the last130 or so years weren't. Some other factors must have played their part to make those winters particular severe.

 

That's the key though, massively increased probability, of course though SSW's in a W QBO are more likely with higher solar activity, plus the mid 80s had a succession of cracking winters, 1995-96 was probably the most blocked winter in my lifetime, ok Ive experienced snowier winters but blocking wise it was awesome, the second UK record coldest temperature occurred during this winter.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Re susnposts and schwabe cycle solar max/min I think these have lesser and conflciting effects compared the to bigger cycles like Hale and above and I think cold winters occur within the overriding signal of that bigger signal eg Dickensian winters during Dalton Minima although they weren't ALL cold.

It appears to me that the key area the solar cycles have on the atmosphere is its effect on the jetstream and and with meridional jetstream some places will be very warm and others exceptionally cold and these meanderings will differ.  Even during past Grand Minimas it wasn't ALWAYS cold in N W Europe thus suggesting to me it is but one player [main imo] but its effects then get modulated by other factors/teleconnections?  Hence no two setups/winters are the same even with very similar background signals.

 

BFTP

Edited February 16, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Kentish Man]

This thread has gone a bit quiet - any chance of an update from one of the experts on this subject as we head towards March?

[Woollymummy]

My phone is being a pain and keeps crashing but it looks like something is starting to happen at the beginning of March. After a long time of nothing much changing. Is it the same at the upper levels of the stratosphere?

[mountain shadow]

I think any warming in the Strat is normal now, is it not as we approach the equinox and the sun's power start to assert more into the Northern Hemisphere?

 

This is why snow at Easter is more likely than at Christmas.

[Weather-history]

 

This is why snow at Easter is more likely than at Christmas.

I think that statistic has taken a hit in the last 25 years. Snow during April since and including 1990 has not been that common. I have seen more Christmas Days with snow falling or lying than Easter Days since 1990.

The latest Cohen analysis would suggest another March 2013 is unlikely. Favours +AO well into March

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[Recretos]

Who even came up with the idea of a March 2013 repeat?

[Weather-history]

Who even came up with the idea of a March 2013 repeat?

Wishful thinkers, dreamers, hopecasters, cold weather desperadoes, straw clutchers....let's face it there are a number on here.....

[Recretos]

Well I'm sorry, but like I said in the seasonal thread, I just cant see a March 2013 repeat. Despite monthly JMA mean having some ideas, but I am not really buying them.

So I wont be completely offtopic, here is one of the new models I added into my "strat suite". Its none other than FIM9. The other one is FIM9 ZEUS. Next generation non-hydrostatic global model with an icosahedral grid. Too bad the main dynamics are over, so I cant really test it. But still, there is always the next season.

Model resolution is 13km and grid resolution is 0.125°, which is the same as the ECMWF operational full resolution grid. The FU berlin seems to be using 0.5° or even 1°ECMWF grids, probably to cut on the data amount.

The FIM9 and FIM9 ZEUS data both come in the 13km/0.125° grid resolution, and with the temporal resolution of 1 hour, which is quite phenomenal. Data access is through NOAA GSD HIWPP. I have noticed that it (FIM9) is being added to the WxBell model suite so I gave it a shot myself and it looks really good in high resolution.

Regards

p.s. Besides, march 2013 was an ongoing SSW response pattern. So good luck with that this year.

Edited February 21, 2015 by Recretos

[karyo]

It looks good but what does it mean?? lol

[Recretos]

All in all, it means nothing. Its just a graphical example of the model output, a.k.a the grid resolution.

[feb1991blizzard]

The latest runs and recent events just show that even at this late stage, strat is still king, if we could continue with this pushing of the vortex over to the other side of the pole then an Easterly for second half of March is possible..

[Weather-history]

I suppose the only question left now is when will final warming happen?

[Cloud 10]

Not much sign of a final warming any time soon,indeed quite the opposite with 30 hpa temperatures well below normal as an example.

 

[KyleHenry]

GFS 10hPa for 17th March is forecasting a final warming event and if it's to occur, it will finish the PV for this year.

Awaiting Berlin ECMWF to confirm in the next 48 hours.

[mpkio2]

GFS 10hPa for 17th March is forecasting a final warming event and if it's to occur, it will finish the PV for this year.

Awaiting Berlin ECMWF to confirm in the next 48 hours.

Although this is good news (IMO), anyone hoping for any cold will see this news as "Too little, too late". Now, if this was to have happenend in the middle of Jan, me and a few other Cold-lovers might be a little more excited. Good news, nontheless, though

[Cloud 10]

GFS 10hPa for 17th March is forecasting a final warming event and if it's to occur, it will finish the PV for this year.

Awaiting Berlin ECMWF to confirm in the next 48 hours.

 

 

Coming into ECM range now.

 

 

 

Looks to be a close relationship developing through the various levels of the stratosphere and lower down regarding the Polar vortex in the 10 day range.

 

 

[damianslaw]

Looking at the ocean temperatures this winter and once again we have seen very warm SST values in the NE Pacific just like winter 13/14 can't help but think this has been a major factor in locking in the PV over NE Canada/Baffin Island with strong heights over NW Canada.

 

Its odd because we are in meant to be in a cold PDO phase.  I've also read that we do tend to see natural variations in cold PDO phases when you can expect marked break from the norm on a temporary basis, gives some credence to the way the last 18 months have panned out, and would expect  a break back to the cold phase sometime sooner rather than later - I do hope in time for winter next year mind.. otherwise we will see more of the same.. and 3 winters on the trot with no northern heights would be painful..

 

Need the atlantic to warm up as well - far too cold for my liking at the moment, need it to warm up to help prop up some height rises otherwise the Jetstream will have no problem in continuing to gatecrash the party.

 

What I'm saying is SST values are having a profound feedback effect on the strat in terms of position and strength of the PV. Atlantic and Pacific SST profiles winter 12/13 were far more conducive to a colder more blocked pattern here and in line with the current PDO and AMO phases.. why the flip in summer 13 I wonder?

Edited March 10, 2015 by damianslaw

[Cloud 10]

When is the cut off point for a SSW?.

 

ECM at day 10 has reverse zonal winds at 10 hpa 60N.

 

[summer blizzard]

When is the cut off point for a SSW?.

 

ECM at day 10 has reverse zonal winds at 10 hpa 60N.

 

ecmwfzm_u_f240.gifecmwf10f240.gif

 

This is the final warming i think.

[karyo]

When is the cut off point for a SSW?.

 

ECM at day 10 has reverse zonal winds at 10 hpa 60N.

 

ecmwfzm_u_f240.gifecmwf10f240.gif

Can we expect a more blocked atmospheric pattern to emerge soon? 

A blocked April can provide interesting weather contrasts.

[Nouska]

Some stratosphere related presentations from the current Sun-Climate conference.

 

http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/14/30879/2014/acpd-14-30879-2014.pdf

 

http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Mursula_03_2014.pdf

 

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/141014/ncomms6197/full/ncomms6197.html

 

Full list , with abstracts.

 

http://scc.geomar.de/frontend/index.php?page_id=506&v=List&do=0&day=119

 

[Cloud 10]

Can we expect a more blocked atmospheric pattern to emerge soon? 

A blocked April can provide interesting weather contrasts.

 

Quite a dramatic final warming of the stratosphere looks likely,which will be especially noticeable at 30 hpa which is currently well below normal.

 

 

 

Will be interesting to see how or if it affects the troposphere during April.

[summer blizzard]

Final warming..

 

[Frozen Britain]

Final warming..

 

So summer will be good then? There is a final warming every spring, is there not? But the strength of that warming determines whether or not we see HLB over the arctic during summer? HLB over the arctic during summer is responsible for the rapid melt seen over the arctic during the period 2007-2012?