Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[Nouska]

If Recretos is about - any information on the Chinese model?

 

The T240 charts for 10hPa temperatures are very detailed by comparison the the GFS at that timescale.

 

CMA    GFS

[bluearmy]

If Recretos is about - any information on the Chinese model?

The T240 charts for 10hPa temperatures are very detailed by comparison the the GFS at that timescale.

CMA GFS

Could just be the resolution of the data that sylvain has rather than the resolution of the model. I suspect the Chinese strat model isn't cutting edge. Edited December 5, 2014 by bluearmy

[Recretos]

Well, the CMA GSM is actually based on a revision of a ECMWF spectral model, with initial data from NCEP GSI. Probably has one or two custom modifications.

But still, it has configuration of T639, with 60 vertical levels and the top at 0.1mb. The output grid is 0.25, so that is why it looks high res compared to the 0.5/1 from GFS.

It has a legit configuration for resolving stratosphere dynamics, AFAIK. Tho I am not familiar with any verifications for the strat.

Edited December 5, 2014 by Recretos

[snow mad]

Well, the CMA GSM is actually based on a revision of a ECMWF spectral model, with initial data from NCEP GSI. Probably has one or two custom modifications.

But still, it has configuration of T639, with 60 vertical levels and the top at 0.1mb. The output grid is 0.25, so that is why it looks high res compared to the 0.5/1 from GFS.

It has a legit configuration for resolving stratosphere dynamics, AFAIK. Tho I am not familiar with any verifications for the strat.

You are a legend! Say no more

[feb1991blizzard]

You are a legend! Say no more

 

Yes, Genius is the word I would use.

[Nouska]

Well, the CMA GSM is actually based on a revision of a ECMWF spectral model, with initial data from NCEP GSI. Probably has one or two custom modifications.

But still, it has configuration of T639, with 60 vertical levels and the top at 0.1mb. The output grid is 0.25, so that is why it looks high res compared to the 0.5/1 from GFS.

It has a legit configuration for resolving stratosphere dynamics, AFAIK. Tho I am not familiar with any verifications for the strat.

I knew you would have the answer at your finger tips - thanks a lot.

[lorenzo]

Cohen & Furtado have updated the AER AO blog today, still on for SSW January. WAF plot looks disheartening from the dizzy heights of November however eyes firmly cast on the Pacific for wave driving.

 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

 

[karyo]

Disappointing 0z GFS as it downgrades the warming and pushes it back too!

[KyleHenry]

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Edited December 6, 2014 by KyleHenry

[lorenzo]

Some fun for Saturday, Stratospheric Sweepstake if you like and a handy link for folks to view to see SSW in full effect.

 

From the Martineau list which one of these warmings most closely represents now and what central date would you pick for SSW? Am not playing as I already have a guess hidden around elsewhere..

 

http://p-martineau.com/ssw-animations/

 

On Netweather Xtra today there is a new tool live called GROD - Grib on Demand, Andrew - think you would approve - it's all data !

 

From this I pulled a couple of charts showing the current vortex parked in it's usual winter home, then the movement round the Northern Hemisphere, elongation included.

 

Development of the wave 1 more visible on the Pacific view

 

From NetWx strat charts the cycle is visible clicking through here, from current position

 

Then the progression

 

From Gerber's paper on Vortex structure, displacement events feature the equatorward tilt of the PV with altitude, image below is prior to SSW, so we are a little further out, this elongation may be the start of the process.

 

Other clues for SSW come from the paper on Vortex Intensification whereby VI events are compared with precursors for SSW events, a sharp contrast evident in anomaly plots. Here is the 250mb NH view from 01 November to date and also the analogs from the Limpsauvan paper. Not yet conclusive for SSW, however the profile matches this analog better than the VI one.

 

Would have been nice to be further ahead than where we are now if it were not for subdued WAF, still lots to keep an eye on as we watch a still beaten up vortex intensify for the last time this winter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Recretos]

3D polar vortex, based on relative vorticity. From 100mb to 1mb. It is nicely seen how it is split in the lower strat. Data from GFS 12z at 384h.

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

3D polar vortex, based on relative vorticity. From 100mb to 1mb. It is nicely seen how it is split in the lower strat. Data from GFS 12z at 384h.

 

 

 

 

How did you manage to do that????, Brilliant, both are the same but from different perspective I take it.

[Rustynailer]

3D polar vortex, based on relative vorticity. From 100mb to 1mb. It is nicely seen how it is split in the lower strat. Data from GFS 12z at 384h.

 

 

You are cleaver lad, thank you for sharing your knowledge.

Its people like you who continue to make weather watching on the Internet, so interesting.

[bryan629]

How did you manage to do that????, Brilliant, both are the same but from different perspective I take it.

Hi Feb1991, 

 

Hope recretos doesnt mind me sharing the link to the 3d  model....... Andrew - Andrej â€@Recretos  2 hrs

2 hours ago

@scotlandwx @MattHugo81 @chionomaniac Here is the link to the animation (circulating). I recommend VLC player. https://db.tt/racd0R45 

 

i think its absolutely brilliant.

[bryan629]

Hi Feb1991, 

 

Hope recretos doesnt mind me sharing the link to the 3d  model....... Andrew - Andrej â€@Recretos  2 hrs

2 hours ago

@scotlandwx @MattHugo81 @chionomaniac Here is the link to the animation (circulating). I recommend VLC player. https://db.tt/racd0R45 

 

i think its absolutely brilliant. 

 

Oh ! and just in case you dont have vlc player on your computer... heres the link to that  http://www.videolan.org/vlc/index.html

[chionomaniac]

This is more like it!

 

[ITSY]

This is more like it!

 

NH_TMP_1mb_384.gif

 

Clearly an enhanced Warming event, as even shown with the GFS Strat forecast climbing to around -20C. Does it constitute a SSW? To my eyes that chart shows temperatures of +15C?! That sounds fairly remarkable!

[chionomaniac]

Clearly an enhanced Warming event, as even shown with the GFS Strat forecast climbing to around -20C. Does it constitute a SSW? To my eyes that chart shows temperatures of +15C?! That sounds fairly remarkable!

No. A SSW is mean zonal wind reversal at 10 hPa. This is the warming forecast for 1hPa. A long long way to go before we get to think about SSW's but we have to start somewhere. The GFS is coming to terms with the wave 1 pattern sparked by a Asian MT helped by the Aleutian low.

[ITSY]

I know you've been asked this a million times, but how can the novice like me tell when that is forecast? I assume it relates to the speed rather than severity of the warming shown on the GFS, but not entirely sure how it translates to mean wind direction...

[chionomaniac]

I know you've been asked this a million times, but how can the novice like me tell when that is forecast? I assume it relates to the speed rather than severity of the warming shown on the GFS, but not entirely sure how it translates to mean wind direction...

Look at the 10hPa charts and look for mean zonal wind (u wind) reversal.

 

Or look at the fluxes chart on the Berlin site and watch for the blue line (10hPa u wind) be forecast to be below zero as demonstrated here 

 

 

 

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=fluxes&alert=1&lng=eng

 

This is what the early Jan 2013 SSW looked like on the fluxes chart.

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Look at the 10hPa charts and look for mean zonal wind (u wind) reversal.

Or look at the fluxes chart on the Berlin site and watch for the blue line (10hPa u wind) be forecast to be below zero as demonstrated here

fluxes.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=fluxes&alert=1&lng=eng

This is what the early Jan 2013 SSW looked like on the fluxes chart.

fluxes-1.gif

So really we need to see flux charts actually beginning to point polward? And yes the other factor you said . By judging by that a SSW is not really on the horizon ? I mean at least at not in model terms ? I'm sure once the wave breaking can start progressing again via the siberian high we will see things move forward .

Shame we'v had a fly in the ointment so far . Just delayed rather than postponed I'm guessing ??

Edited December 6, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Recretos]

There is no technical SSW yet forecasted by any global deterministic model. What is forecasted tho, is "preconditioning" of an SSW, or an onset of one.

I can plot many things now, and rest asured I will be among the first to graphically present you the very detailed hour when a status of a technical SSW will be first forecasted. You can sometimes interpret it from the GFS height maps when its obvious, but plots/calculations are still the most accurate.

[bluearmy]

Andrew just itching to play with his new toys and a forecast SSW!

In the meantime, gfs currently consistent high up with the end week 2 warming and ECM at day 10 looks similar to gfs as the higher temps begin to show over Europe on their way to Asia. I wonder if we can expect to see some WSI tweets of the ECM ens strat picture later next week! Let's hope so.

the zonal flow strengthening in the meantime. if the upper zonal flow is strong immediately prior to a significant warming (note that is not necessarily a SSW), does that inhibit downwelling or exacerbate it ? Is it a case of 'the bigger they are?' I know that a reversal is often preceded by a flushing down of the zonal flow but that's usually nearer the time. what we see over the next fortnight is not that flushing down. Andrew - you referred to the strat Pv as being without any strong core compared to last year. Does the current data for two weeks hence show the same? your astonishing 3D representation yesterday seems to show a pretty big creature high up but I'm not convinced it looked too strong as a cross section.

Edited December 7, 2014 by bluearmy

[karyo]

Well, the warming is still there on the 0z GFS but to me it doesn't look any better than the one we had in November. In fact, it doesn't seem to affect the strength of the vortex even if you look at the last frame (384 hours).

 

So the wait continues.

 

Karyo

[feb1991blizzard]

Well, the warming is still there on the 0z GFS but to me it doesn't look any better than the one we had in November. In fact, it doesn't seem to affect the strength of the vortex even if you look at the last frame (384 hours).

 

So the wait continues.

 

Karyo

 

I disagree, we had a downgrade yesterday 0z but a slight recovery on the 6z, then we have had upgrades, don't forget this warming was at 384  on Friday,  the start of it is now around 336 - 350 hours, im not sure what exactly you expected to see by now, im looking at the top of the stratosphere.