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chionomaniac

Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

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18z continues the trend for a warming to develop far into FI along with wave 1 returning over the pacific.

Edit: 0z continues as well

Edited by SN0WM4N

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I've been learning and still learning a lot from you guys and trying to understand the charts which I'm thankful for :)

 

Now I'm 90% sure I have read these right and that is wave activity forming over the pacific while it may be FI it has been a recurring trend and getting closer to the T240 where we can see if the ECM agrees.

 

Past 3 runs starting at T240 from yesterdays 18z run.

 

1mb:

18z, 0z and 6z show the same picture. http://i.imgur.com/9bjwqzq.gif

 

Nothing at all with the Vortex in NE Greenland.

 

Roll that on and we get this showing the earliest start of wave activity which only increases.

 

1mb

 

18z   http://i.imgur.com/3xJu8V6.gif

0z  http://i.imgur.com/LUIn2Pj.gif

6z   http://i.imgur.com/ikWNJuv.gif

 

Even at 10mb.

 

18z http://i.imgur.com/hHWIHI5.gif

0z  http://i.imgur.com/WqPy5Wi.gif

6z http://i.imgur.com/TWJZ3RN.gif

 

Still there and progressing closer to the reliable time frame. I'm posting this to say that amidst all the models and MJO phases etc it's not all bad! 

 

As I said I'm still learning and posting in this thread is rather interrogating so if I have something wrong please tell me.

 

EDIT: Fixed links.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Hi

 

I can't see any of those links. Can you upload the pics themselves?

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Hi

I can't see any of those links. Can you upload the pics themselves?

I think noone is supposed to hot link images from that website, hence the error message. Edited by picog

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Interesting tweet:

webberweather

It's worth noting much of 11-15 day guidance shows a classic precursor signal to a sudden stratospheric warming event http://t.co/ZXzO6gX6XX04/12/2014 18:07

Provided we make it into phases 7-8, some models not so keen, ECM in particular, though GFS looking better with a clear run through, though not amplified. Even if we make 7-8 in next few weeks, no guarantee that we will see a SSW, though it increases the potential. But given the other favourable background forcings such as the emergence of El Nino and the Eurasian snow cover, the odds are more in favour of it occurring IMO. Edited by Nick F
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Interesting tweet:

 

 

  webberweather

It's worth noting much of 11-15 day guidance shows a classic precursor signal to a sudden stratospheric warming event http://t.co/ZXzO6gX6XX

04/12/2014 18:07

 

 

Indeed. He annotates it very clearly and impressively on the AmericanWX site. Ties in with the much more simple take of a period of mobility and +AO before an SSW. AKA the next couple of weeks?

 

Warming starting to show up at the tail end of the GFS at the top of the strat again, I think we are going to see thes increase over the coming days / weeks. Of course the MJO (as in the ECM) may not make phase 7/8 but even if it does dip into the COD I could see it re-emerging back out fairly quickly with amplitude in the Pacific sector and even if not it is not the be-all-end-all, plenty of other factors in our favour for an emerging SSW early (very early?) 2015

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Whats happening wrt the expected East Asian mountain torque event?, isn't  that what is most needed for a top down warming (that's predicted late Dec / early 2015)  propagating the surf zone in that side of the hemisphere and what is likely to be the driver for it?

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Whats happening wrt the expected East Asian mountain torque event?, isn't  that what is most needed for a top down warming (that's predicted late Dec / early 2015)  propagating the surf zone in that side of the hemisphere and what is likely to be the driver for it?

 

I think that has been put on hold by lower pressure over Siberia/Mongolia, which has stopped the formation of the Siberian high, which is the major wave-1 producer. It looks like this low pressure will leave throughout the next week and high pressure will begin to build again. A common theme in the last couple of days from the GFS FI is the emergence of a big siberian high at day 10+, which may be the reason for a bit of a warming in the stratosphere being predicted in a couple of weeks.

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I think that has been put on hold by lower pressure over Siberia/Mongolia, which has stopped the formation of the Siberian high, which is the major wave-1 producer. It looks like this low pressure will leave throughout the next week and high pressure will begin to build again. A common theme in the last couple of days from the GFS FI is the emergence of a big siberian high at day 10+, which may be the reason for a bit of a warming in the stratosphere being predicted in a couple of weeks.

 

Thanks.

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Don't claim to be an expert with regard to stratosphere behaviour but reading many posts and thoughts above, the expected precursor to a SSW is wave breaking caused by the Siberian high, currently it has stalled somewhat hence lack of warming but the trend in the next 10 days will be for it to re-emerge aiding wave breaking combined with a shift in the core of the Polar Vortex away from NE Canada and Greenland - the two will work in tandem eventually to cause SSW, the consequences for us will be a shift in the trough to our east and more robust mid atlantic heights ridging north.. we see signs of the atlantic pattern moving in this direction from all models but it will be a rather slow process..

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Warming starting to gather pace a bit now, although nothing special in itself, it still there on the 18z. Somthing's a stirring I reckon.

 

Unlike the recent warming  through November it seems to be happening lower down as well, not exclusively at the top. A very good sign!

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Latest Berlin data ramping up that zonal flow higher up. 80m/s showing up top and 30m/s at 30hpa is a sure sign that the upper vortex has regained strength. But how strong is it in reality (referring back to andrew's posts)? perhaps this just makes it more brittle and potentially any strong warming could cause a more dramatic disintegration ? Anyway, signs at the back end of renewed wave 1 and renewed warming beginning to show its hand again at 1hpa from s Europe which presumably reflects recent gfs fi

Edited by bluearmy
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GFS really ramping up that warming now, clearest one yet:

 

gfsnh-10-384.png?6

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GFS really ramping up that warming now, clearest one yet:

 

gfsnh-10-384.png?6

Is that within some degree of reliable timeframe or is it a bit too far out to call reliable?

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some of the most impressive gfs fi upper strat output of the season thus far today. if the 12z is similar, then i suspect some posted charts may be in order later

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What's very much set through the GFS output is the transferral of energy from Greenland/Canada to Siberia in FI, transcending through the stratosphere to the troposphere, at least on the 6z; and it makes the potential progression that the 6z gets more feasible. Of course it's just one run but if we get a few more days of this, then coupled with moving into D10 on the ECM; and coupled with a hopefully more stable move into phase 7 with the MJO, you can see things start to really build for some sort of feedback on the ground around the New Year. I'd agree though that with the SSW not quite appearing, it'd be more likely to see the crux of any outbreak to begin being projected by January instead of December.

 

Still, positive signs... and it's not December 2013 strat modelling for definite!

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As I was also saying to Matt and Chiono on twitter, it was actually the FNMOC control run that was the first to spot the developing wave. GFS was next, and GEFS behind it. 

 

ffg.png ff.png

 

ggg.png ggt.png

 

GEFS has weird temp. placement, but it is normal for its resolution. 

 

Regards

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Is that within some degree of reliable timeframe or is it a bit too far out to call reliable?

 

It's not within the reliable timeframe I guess, though it's expected as we will likely see the formation of 2 major tropospheric pecurrsors to wave 1 breaking in the next 7-10 days. Both ECM and GFS are going for low height anomalies over the Aleutian Islands and higher anomalies over Northwest Eurasia. GFS in particular shows this nicely

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited by Snowy L

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Yes, its CFS, but lets face it, we all like to look or at least peek, at longer ranges. :)qqq.png10.png 5.png

Wonder what the trop output for later in January was on those runs? Think I'll have a look later. Would be typical for that model to pick up an SSW and drop the baton re any down welling!

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Shortly after the vortex starts getting it's act together it is the hit and struck down immediately.

 

From this OAiY6Lb.gif To this mwxqwGn.gif

 

Looking good :)

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The stratospheric warming is upgraded on the 12z. At the 30hpa level is starts to kick in at 336 hours which is of course FI but very importantly it is coming closer compared to yesterday's runs.

 

Just a question, is this the main warming that we are expecting (perhaps starting a bit earlier than planned) or a pre-SSW warming event?

 

Karyo

Edited by karyo
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