Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[feb1991blizzard]

Is this the VERY VERY EARLIEST, MOST TENTATIVE signs of a warming?

 

[Recretos]

Well, the para GFS is starting to play around with something, which could be just a random thought. We will see generally how and when will models pick up new dynamics, which will happen eventually in mid and late December. Since the current forecasts are mainly straight-forward, it will be interesting to see which model will start to pick up on any real new dynamics and how accurate and stable. 

 

 

 

Cheers.

Edited November 27, 2014 by Recretos

[karyo]

Is this the VERY VERY EARLIEST, MOST TENTATIVE signs of a warming?

 

Would that be a good location?

[Recretos]

Would that be a good location?

Thats not even a warming, let alone a good location.

[Snowy L]

Would that be a good location?

I'm guessing it would end up circling the cold area and attack from Siberia like these warmings almost always seem to do. These slight warmings at t360+ have been appearing and disappearing from the GFS for a couple of days now, the parallel seems particularly keen to start a warming in late FI. Can't take it seriously though, I think last year we found out the hard way that these stratosphere charts have their own FI threshold and that it is a lot earlier than most thought it was.

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm guessing it would end up circling the cold area and attack from Siberia like these warmings almost always seem to do. These slight warmings at t360+ have been appearing and disappearing from the GFS for a couple of days now, the parallel seems particularly keen to start a warming in late FI. Can't take it seriously though, I think last year we found out the hard way that these stratosphere charts have their own FI threshold and that it is a lot earlier than most thought it was.

 

True but what I have found evident over the last few year is warmings do not just appear suddenly without any prior indication in the 168-240 range, of course they appear and disappear in GFS 300+ range and sometimes those charts project an SSW but fail to make it into the reliable timeframe and deliver one, I cant think though that when an SSW does occur, that the GFS 300+ charts wouldn't show one at least sporadically before it comes into ECM range.

Edited November 27, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[karyo]

True but what I have found evident over the last few year is warmings do not just appear suddenly without any prior indication in the 168-240 range, of course they appear and disappear in GFS 300+ range and sometimes those charts project an SSW but fail to make it into the reliable timeframe and deliver one, I cant think though that when an SSW does occur, that the GFS 300+ charts wouldn't show one at least sporadically before it comes into ECM range.

Agreed! The 18z p has a warming over Eastern Europe towards the end of the run like the 12z had. 

[picog]

Agreed! The 18z p has a warming over Eastern Europe towards the end of the run like the 12z had.

Now that is a good location for the UK isn't it?

[Paul]

Couple of posts removed this morning, please can we try to keep it on topic in here - if you have an issue with any posts hitting the report button will alert the team to them, thanks

[Frozen Britain]

So where are we now stratospherically with meteorological winter starting on Monday? Can we effectively write off at the first 2 weeks of December as there is no notable warming forecast where we need it in the stratosphere? Are we looking at a pattern change now away from the Sceuro ridge and Aleutian low? No planetary waves underway to affect the stratosphere down the line? How will the UK ridge downstream trough across N America impact on the stratosphere?

[MattH]

So where are we now stratospherically with meteorological winter starting on Monday? Can we effectively write off at the first 2 weeks of December as there is no notable warming forecast where we need it in the stratosphere? Are we looking at a pattern change now away from the Sceuro ridge and Aleutian low? No planetary waves underway to affect the stratosphere down the line? How will the UK ridge downstream trough across N America impact on the stratosphere?

 

Stay tuned...Ed (Chino) will give a usual excellent run-down of how things have developed so far this autumn and what may well develop through December either later today or this weekend...

 

Cheers, Matt.

[Helzmc]

Hi..bit of an amiture here an tbh im more of a watcher but i was wondering...what the aparent el nino phenomenom on the cards this year along with the scandi block an azores high ....were these in all in place in 2010 and do you think we will have similar play this winter?

(Sorry if this is in the wrong place)

Thanks for any reply

[chionomaniac]

Evening all.

 

So with winter a few days away it is worth looking where we are stratospherically and where we expected to be at this point.

 

So far this stratospheric winter we have seen a completely different position to last year. Last yera we saw the stratosphere cool dramatically = there was some early wave activity, but his hardly interrupted the dramatic cooling seen especially during December.

 

2013/2014 fluxes

 

 

Note the 1 10 and 30 hPa u wind totals leading into Dec - they were a lot higher and wave activity hardly had an impact

 

but

 

This year so far

 

 

shows how the u winds have been dramatically affected by the wave activity. Every year we will see  tropospheric wave activity affect the stratosphere - but the strength of this activity and susceptibility of the strat differs from year to year. This year we are seeing an extremely susceptible strat vortex as expected.

 

To get a better idea it is worth looking at the Merra data and look at the mean temperature at 10 hPA

 

 

It is as high as it has ever been recorded in November and it is no surprise to see the mean zonal winds follow suit.

 

 

Well below average for November.

 

So it is no surprise to see a the stratosphere cool down and try and returm to some sort of barotropic normality over the next few weeks. But I don't think that we should consider that this is a bad omen for the rest of winter. a period of increased zonal winds is always seen prior to bigger events - look at 2012/13 u winds

 

 

For me this winter is behaving exactly as expected so far - with perhaps better wave activity that we could have envisaged.

 

And what do I expect from now? It has been great to get the winter forecast out of the way because we can concentrate on the tropospheric and stratospheric forecasts. Well I am know on the lookout for wave 1 activity followed by wave 2 activity rebounding into the stratosphere. The tropospheric forecast pattern is not quite set up for this yet - the MJO phase and presure anomalies to create favourable mountain torques will take a couple of weeks to align, but I am liking the progression of these forecasts so I don't think that we will have to wait too long and the phase 7 will be a good SSW precurser..

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

So keep an eye on  the 1hPa forecasts because I believe that you will see the first clues exhibited on the extremities of the vortex here....

 

But in the meantine the troposphere should still be favourable for an increasing cooler pattern in the meantme. 

 

 

[bluearmy]

 

methinks that if this trop wave forecast verifies, it could be the precursor to another significant blow to the upper vortex (perhaps SSW inducing)?  and it would come at a time as it appears to be strengthening. given how andrew has illustrated that this seasons upper vortex doesnt have a strong core, could we view a potential big wave attack as being more dramatic re consequences against what is essentially quite a 'brittle' animal if it begins to restrengthen before this next attack commences ?

Edited November 29, 2014 by bluearmy

[Nouska]

The IMO (Icelandic Met Office) have added the PGFS to their extensive list of models. One of the parameters is a nice animation of the geopotential heights and temperature at 30hPa.

 

These are date cached so will need to have the date changed in the address bar.

 

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/gsm025/2014/11/29/00/gsm025_nhem_gh30_t30.html

 

Screen cap for illustration.

 

[chionomaniac]

 

 

So keep an eye on  the 1hPa forecasts because I believe that you will see the first clues exhibited on the extremities of the vortex here....

 

But in the meantine the troposphere should still be favourable for an increasing cooler pattern in the meantme. 

......just like this

 

[DAVID SNOW]

......just like this

 

NH_TMP_1mb_384.gif

 

I am honestly not trying to derail this thread in any way, but this chart is from the GFS @ 384 hours:sorry but for the last 3 weeks all the 'good' charts posted   always seem to be at either 240 hours or 384 hours and they never get any closer. Sorry again but it was the same in here last winter. I will now have my last cigarette..............

[chionomaniac]

I am honestly not trying to derail this thread in any way, but this chart is from the GFS @ 384 hours:sorry but for the last 3 weeks all the 'good' charts posted   always seem to be at either 240 hours or 384 hours and they never get any closer. Sorry again but it was the same in here last winter. I will now have my last cigarette..............

Well that is nonsense because the strat has just recorded record polar temperatures at 10hPa and a split lower vortex occurred - so the FI forecasts did reel in and verify.

 

Also I know very well that the chart I posted is at the very extremity of FI but it was linked to my previous post and was demonstrating what I expected to see and in that respect was fit for purpose.

 

 

Edit - I hope that cigarette was worth it LOL

Edited November 29, 2014 by chionomaniac

[DAVID SNOW]

Well that is nonsense because the strat has just recorded record polar temperatures at 10hPa and a split lower vortex occurred - so the FI forecasts did reel in and verify.

 

Also I know very well that the chart I posted is at the very extremity of FI but it was linked to my previous post and was demonstrating what I expected to see and in that respect was fit for purpose.

 

 

Edit - I hope that cigarette was worth it LOL

 

 

Still puffing... So the expected FI chart  will still be there tomorrow then ? 24 hours closer though?

[snow mad]

Still puffing... So the expected FI chart  will still be there tomorrow then ? 24 hours closer though?

Think you've just missed the point now sling your hook as this is an extremely interesting thread!

[chionomaniac]

Still puffing... So the expected FI chart  will still be there tomorrow then ? 24 hours closer though?

Not necessarily - ideas at that range tend to thrown backwards and forwards until a trend is gained. The difference between this and last year is that we are expecting the warming this year ( whereas last year it was a low %age chance) and so when we see the FI charts they do not come as a surprise and are more likley to be reeled in.

 

Keep an eye on that MJO - that is the bullet we need to set off the pattern for the EAMT - the strat is the loaded gun.

[Snowy L]

Not necessarily - ideas at that range tend to thrown backwards and forwards until a trend is gained. The difference between this and last year is that we are expecting the warming this year ( whereas last year it was a low %age chance) and so when we see the FI charts they do not come as a surprise and are more likley to be reeled in.

 

Keep an eye on that MJO - that is the bullet we need to set off the pattern for the EAMT - the strat is the loaded gun.

So in around 10-15 days, it begins?

[chionomaniac]

So in around 10-15 days, it begins?

Not necessarily.

[Gael_Force]

Still puffing... So the expected FI chart  will still be there tomorrow then ? 24 hours closer though?

 

If you're here to use the strat as a forecast for cold and snow in your back garden - then, yes - sling the hook is a good suggestion.

 

If you're here to learn about a newer aspect of the science of meteorology, pull up a chair and don't be so impatient!

[DAVID SNOW]

Not necessarily - ideas at that range tend to thrown backwards and forwards until a trend is gained. The difference between this and last year is that we are expecting the warming this year ( whereas last year it was a low %age chance) and so when we see the FI charts they do not come as a surprise and are more likley to be reeled in.

 

Keep an eye on that MJO - that is the bullet we need to set off the pattern for the EAMT - the strat is the loaded gun.

 

Thanks, we do have a lot of good signals for this winter QBO east, good snow cover in October(latitude) and a weak el nino  not to mention the OPI etc   but the overriding driver to me would be the solar cycle we are in at the moment , although on the wane I think it will still override all other background signals.