Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[karyo]

I disagree with that, it was a hefty high at decent latitude, it just didn't last long, I was gutted with that cold spell as it didn't deliver for me personally but a lot of the country got belted.

From what I remember it was a Scandi high which I don't necessarily associate with a SSW event. I mean we have one now and the stratosphere is not warm. I remember the enthusiasm here when the SSW happened and then we just kept waiting for the goods. Ironically, the winter was relatively cold before the SSW happened.

[feb1991blizzard]

From what I remember it was a Scandi high which I don't necessarily associate with a SSW event. I mean we have one now and the stratosphere is not warm. I remember the enthusiasm here when the SSW happened and then we just kept waiting for the goods. Ironically, the winter was relatively cold before the SSW happened.

 

But there hasn't been the usual period of vortex intensification, there has been enough disruption to the strat and trop vortices for them not to have gained significant enough strength to prevent blocking.

[MattH]

Have you seen the latest ECM strat ensembles on twitter, Matt. Big warming advertised even as far as 50hPa. Look at WSI tweet.

Have you seen the latest ECM strat ensembles on twitter, Matt. Big warming advertised even as far as 50hPa. Look at WSI tweet.

Hi Ed, yeah just checked it now that's an impressive chart to say the least! Here's hoping it verifies. It seems to have done reasonably well the EC ENS with the sig warming high up so let's hope it's on to something here!

Cheers. Matt

[Snowy L]

From what I remember it was a Scandi high which I don't necessarily associate with a SSW event. I mean we have one now and the stratosphere is not warm. I remember the enthusiasm here when the SSW happened and then we just kept waiting for the goods. Ironically, the winter was relatively cold before the SSW happened.

 

We got a Scandi high from the 2013 January SSW and the 2012 February SSW. They're very common after SSWs because with displacement SSWs the Scandi high is the major precursor for the SSW to happen. So after the SSW all that needs to happen is for the high to move west, which is a lot easier after an SSW because of the reversal of zonal winds.

[Snowy L]

Big warming being picked up on by the 12z GFS, hopefully this is the same signal that the ECM has seen.

 

[Snowman.]

Some lovely FI charts. 

 

 

GFS(P) has it too but toned down.

Edited November 20, 2014 by SN0WM4N

[feb1991blizzard]

Some lovely FI charts. 

 

 

GFS(P) has it too but toned down.

 

 

It looks like that 12z GFS 10mb chart was a bit of an outlier, if they would have been repeated and come into the reliable timeframe then I may have had to revisit my earlier posts about there being no chance of an SSW before 20th Dec.

[lorenzo]

Time to get this link posting and re-posting everywhere again.

 

10hPa level wind and temps in the strat fast forwarded a few days - a nice watch, click in and find the warmest strat temp, double click to zoom and back on your browser to zoom out again, increased selection of overlays and also some nice ocean temps if that is what you want to see. 

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/11/25/0000Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-279.74,54.14,512

 

Our current MJO right in the area which in itself has interesting feedbacks for the stratosphere over December.

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/11/25/0000Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-281.73,28.94,512

 

Forecast http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo_forecast.html

[sebastiaan1973]

https://twitter.com/webberweather

Some interesting tweets of this guy. 100mb heat eddy flux is skyrocketing=polar vortex disruption.

Heatflux doing it's job?!

 

Current Nov 500mb/SLP is virtually verbatim the regressed pattern for high Oct N hem snowpack & Cohen's SCE research. And extending them into winter: https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/535759982466445312

Edited November 21, 2014 by sebastiaan1973

[Recretos]

Yep, and some more here:

[KTtom]

Can anyone point me in the direction of the very simplistic graph showing the 10hpa temps now against the average...I think it was JMA who produced it but I can only find last years?

[bluearmy]

Late on in yesterday's run, the zonal flow begins to pick up as wave activity eases off somewhat. Signs that any relaxation in the amplified trop pattern could allow a stronger upper vortex to take shape? Just a note for those keen to lose the scandi ridge.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/index.html

[Paul123]

Judah Cohen still sees opportunities for the triggering of a significant if not major stratospheric warming within foreseeable future. 

 

From his blog: 'The latest GFS forecast does call for a new but weak pulse at the end of November and beginning of December.  This WAFz needs to be watched closely as continued activity could trigger a significant if not major warming as early as December'. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

 

This morning run of netweather is quite promising. 

 

Edited November 22, 2014 by Paul123

[karyo]

Indeed the 0z GFS looks nice for early December with a more pronounced warming and a split. The warming always seems to start in Asia and we are always left with a segment of vortex in Greenland.

[marksiwnc]

Just a quick question to experts on the stratosphere. What is Cohen saying regarding major warming? I've heard of ssw but never of msw. What implications would that result in for the northern hemisphere? And is he normally correct with his judgements?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just a quick question to experts on the stratosphere. What is Cohen saying regarding major warming? I've heard of ssw but never of msw. What implications would that result in for the northern hemisphere? And is he normally correct with his judgements?

 

I think its the same thing - also called MMW (Major midwinter warming) as usually it happens later in the season.

[EML Network]

To my untrained eye this looks like a thing of beauty.

 

An attack from 2 sides and a split vortex ?

 

[feb1991blizzard]

To my untrained eye this looks like a thing of beauty.

 

An attack from 2 sides and a split vortex ?

 

 

 

It is but what we want to see is a wider split with high heights over Greenland and the daughter vortices spread wide and far and stay that way for a while, promising none the less, I wonder what Recretos makes of it and can he compare to the ensembles suites for us?

[karyo]

It is but what we want to see is a wider split with high heights over Greenland and the daughter vortices spread wide and far and stay that way for a while, promising none the less, I wonder what Recretos makes of it and can he compare to the ensembles suites for us?

It is the best stratospheric chart this season so a very good step forward! 

 

It upgrades things nicely from where the 0z left which was also a good run.

 

Karyo

Edited November 22, 2014 by karyo

[Cloud 10]

Yes,a cracking o6z gfs with the strat cracked open almost from top to bottom.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes,a cracking o6z gfs with the strat cracked open almost from top to bottom.

 

NH_HGT_30mb_324.gifNH_HGT_100mb_384.gif

but the lack of post from the more experienced poster would suggest there not as confident as they were a couple of weeks back.

possibility it might not happen.

[Snowy L]

Indeed the 0z GFS looks nice for early December with a more pronounced warming and a split. The warming always seems to start in Asia and we are always left with a segment of vortex in Greenland.

 

We can always get a further warming from the North Atlantic as a result of wave-2 push the Grenland lobe further west, as with 2012/13.

[Weather-history]

but the lack of post from the more experienced poster would suggest there not as confident as they were a couple of weeks back.

possibility it might not happen.

It could be a simple answer to this, they might actually be a bit too busy to post at the moment.

From chionomaniac on Twitter

"Starting winter with u wind under 40m/s and warming projected at 1hPA - Any cold lover will take that! pic.twitter.com/CBeD9iSua3

[feb1991blizzard]

It could be a simple answer to this, they might actually be a bit too busy to post at the moment.

From chionomaniac on Twitter

"Starting winter with u wind under 40m/s and warming projected at 1hPA - Any cold lover will take that! pic.twitter.com/CBeD9iSua3

 

Yes, there really isn't any panic yet, unless one is bothered about a timescale of a cold outbreak as opposed to just wanting one to happen at some point in winter.

[Snowman.]

but the lack of post from the more experienced poster would suggest there not as confident as they were a couple of weeks back.

possibility it might not happen.

 

Cup Half-full sir!

 

What we're seeing isn't the norm and are really positive signs for the winter ahead in terms of a coldies perspective. Just like any other winter patience is what's needed especially since it's only November.