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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015


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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Personally I don't think we'll have any meaningful trop response until end of Jan very early Feb.  Have I written Jan off... three weeks worth I have

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire

I wonder if someone could explain something to me, with my very limited understanding of the mechanism of the SSW process?

 

I have noted that the temperature at 1MB has been 35C for 6 days straight, in spite of the ECM forecast dropping it back to less tropical levels every day. Surely temperatures of this magnitude mean something significant? I haven't been studying such charts for very long but I am intrigued by the persistence of such high temperatures. I note also that there have been rises further down in the atmosphere.

 

Is there some kind of tipping point where sustained high temperatures at the top of the stratosphere suddenly propagate downwards and destroy the polar vortex? Or is that the $64000 question every time in these conditions, not knowing if the warming is sufficient to cause such destruction?

 

I find this area fascinating and I realise there is not an exact correlation to events further down in the troposphere, but any explanation would be very welcome!

 

Thanks, OMM

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Posted
  • Location: 150m ASL, Monmouthshire, South Wales.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold winters, plus anything 'interesting'
  • Location: 150m ASL, Monmouthshire, South Wales.

So here's a little whodunnit to lighten the mood. Below the much quoted chart from the Berlin site, produced on the 28/12 and forecast for 5/1.

post-15042-0-62459200-1420193748_thumb.j

And here are some perturbations from the GEFS, produced from this mornings (2/1) 0z run and looking forward to the 18/1. - about 2 weeks on from that forecast above.

post-15042-0-34269400-1420193910_thumb.jpost-15042-0-84434200-1420193927_thumb.j

Even in the mean for the run, the vortex looks at least a little contrite.

post-15042-0-23669400-1420194289_thumb.j

I know, I know, lots of caveats apply to the trop forecast at that range. but could it be the models reacting to the warmings and wave activity...or else who (or what) done it?

Berlin site still broken, when I checked earlier btw.

post-15042-0-82323100-1420193945_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

It is a shame that the warming over the Atlantic and Greenland is quite brief. The vortex split is a blink and you miss it affair and then the vortex re-organises over Greenland again. Then there is an Asian warming towards the end of the run but we've had similar warmings there recently and they haven't benefited us at all, if anything they tend to push the vortex towards us which prevents any meaningful blocking to develop.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I suspect we need to see if that signal in the Atlantic gathers pace before we open proceedings!

i keep saying the same things but it's impossible for this thread to function properly without the Berlin data and forecasts

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

I suspect we need to see if that signal in the Atlantic gathers pace before we open proceedings!

i keep saying the same things but it's impossible for this thread to function properly without the Berlin data and forecasts

Yes, it is annoying not to have the Berlin forecasts but the GFS doesn't look that great in terms of the Atlantic warming. If anything, it seems to have downgraded it somewhat in todays runs - no dark orange colour at the 30hpa level.

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Posted
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU

Hi to all

Berlin Strato ECMWF diagnostic site is no broken

 

this URL yes is broken ( not Found ... 404 Error )

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php

but exist a other Strato diagnostic URL and this function

( but there is another Strato diagnostic URL and it works )

 

Off Topic ( Sorry my intrusion )

Sorry for my not perfect english ...

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

 

The site works fine, its just that the data hasn't updated for days now, the analysis charts at the beginning of the runs still showing 28th December.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

The site works fine, its just that the data hasn't updated for days now, the analysis charts at the beginning of the runs still showing 28th December.

 

I'd be amazed if it differs massively from the GFS as that has been fairly consistent with each run with the warming over Greenland being a fairly short lived affair.

 

I live in hope though. As ba mentioned, it's not likely to be until Monday now that we see it back up properly, which is really frustrating!

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

I suspect we need to see if that signal in the Atlantic gathers pace before we open proceedings!

i keep saying the same things but it's impossible for this thread to function properly without the Berlin data and forecasts

Flying blind this year at such a key time, maybe Tony can get the data from Matt Hugo or Ryan Maue via Twitter if possible otherwise we will be revising after the event has passed.

An update from Dr Cohen is only other option.

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

Wx Bell shows the warming Greenland wave initiating at 10hPa over this weekend, not FI or la la land, actual solid temp increases, gathers pace to reach a dizzy -0.7 degrees up there mid run. So, completely in agreement, we are going into this eyes shut until Berlin updates, and I think your call for Monday will be correct Nick.

 

The forecast for 10hPa has steadily increased temps in the Greenland locale from when it first appeared developing from the Wave 1, so it will be very interesting to see of there is any cascade, currently no lasting impacts visible at 30hPa / 50hPa and as noted a transient split.

 

It's going to take until mid-week to get a handle on the impacts.  I hope it continues to gather strength and re-visits the all levels split advertised previously, especially with the eye watering trop. charts ECM is delivering right now and the AO / NAO heading through the roof. Could be quite a dramatic change in direction. Official SSW or not, most significant shot at the vortex of the winter and one which will give us true steer on the rest of January. Will also be interesting to see if ECM maintains / increases the impacts as per earlier projections.

 

JMA still updating, and visible here are the EP Flux and timeline for wave activity which highlights the strength of this warming compared across the season. Would think that a blow of this magnitude would really finish the vortex, however nothing is surprising me at the moment this Winter !

 

attachicon.gifw2 flux.gif

 

attachicon.giftlat_epz_nh.gifattachicon.gifzuep_nh.gif

 

Edit - and just to take the hand even further, it's just started to snow here. Hahahaha !

Big thanks Tony, as always regarding the Stratospheric waves a person must be over cautious and patient.

Prior to Berlin enjoying holiday leave it did look like both MT event and wave 2 were coming in stronger than forecasted. 6th January it is then and the lag time.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

this makes interesting viewing  - well it does in my book!

 

you can see pretty much real time temps at a variety of Hpa levels...

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-17.43,90.99,353

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Looks like the poster information and abstract have updated for January Royal Met Soc. meeting on the stratosphere.

 

Overview here

http://www.rmets.org/events/stratosphere-troposphere-coupling-earth-system-where-next

 

Links to each discussion - 

 

Professor Shepherd

http://www.rmets.org/events/stratosphere-troposphere-coupling-earth-system-where-next/stratosphere-troposphere-coupling

 

Professor Scaife

http://www.rmets.org/events/stratosphere-troposphere-coupling-earth-system-where-next/tbc-0

 

Dr Karpechko,

http://www.rmets.org/events/stratosphere-troposphere-coupling-earth-system-where-next/tbc-1

 

Professor Baldwin

http://www.rmets.org/events/stratosphere-troposphere-coupling-earth-system-where-next/tbc-2

 

Dr Hitchcock

http://www.rmets.org/events/stratosphere-troposphere-coupling-earth-system-where-next/tbc-3

 

Heavyweight line up and of real interest, hope we can manage to get sight of some of the material presented on the day, as this is being webcast live, it would be nice if these lectures found their way to you tube thereafter.

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU

Hi to all

 

a little favor Please

i search the new update ( 2015 ) of this Graphics

http://weerwoord.be/includes/forum_read.php?id=1930965&tid=1930902

Thanks !

===

Extra Bonus

( you have this ? )

http://db.cger.nies.go.jp/gem/stras/en/index.html

http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/cwd.php

http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/pmap_gfs_nh.gif

clic to map for zoom

===

france weathersite

go to Infoclimat ( have new strato northern hemisphere parameter )

 

Off Topic

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

 

Deleted.

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

 

 

Heavyweight line up and of real interest, hope we can manage to get sight of some of the material presented on the day, as this is being webcast live, it would be nice if these lectures found their way to you tube thereafter.

It does say non members are welcome only limited by seating members obviously taking precedence. Had it been at Leeds I think I would have gone.

Nope I would not as I will be in Wengen!

Edited by johnholmes
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Thank you. Does anyone have the dates since Winter 2010? Thank you.

Try the Martineau site here

 

http://p-martineau.com/ssw-animations/

 

The Martineau site is good though used to be better with dates originally going back 1952 when it had just geopotential animations - since updating with temperature animations it only goes back to winter 78/9.

But there are some caveats to be aware of - firstly the SSW definition is based upon the stratospheric northern annular mode (NAM), the equivalent of the AO. As such the warmings aren't guaranteed to be the standard zonal wind reversals of major SSW. Secondly, the central dates given are of the lowest NAM values, not onset date of reversed zonal wind which is commonly used. Lastly, the dates may be final warmings.

It's worthwhile to compare with the MERRA data - http://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

So for example the last in the Butler & Polvani list is 09/02/10 which is the same in the MERRA data but the Martineau minimum NAM is ten days earlier on 30/1/10.

There is only one major SSW after this in MERRA on 6/1/13 - in Martineau this is 17/1/13.

Martineau has 17/1/12 but in MERRA this is a minor warming with a lowest 10mb 60° wind of 6.57m/s on 23/1/12

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