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chionomaniac

Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

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Nice post Chiono, looking towards the November temps in certain locations to underpin the OPI>..

 

S

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Good to see you back, Chino.

 

Let it begin!

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 Thanks for all the work you put in to this thread each year Ed and good to have you back, really looking forward to this coming winter and will follow this thread with much interest.

Edited by TobyT

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rather early to be looking too closely at events in the strat but it cant do any harm to see a warming area on the asian side at the top of the strat being consistently shown at the back end of recent gfs runs. anything that might disrupt a cold organised strat vortex from forming will be welcome. i recall it was a series of small warmings early on that helped to set the building blocks for the frigid december in 2010.

 

not wanting to burst any bubbles but a quick read through the strat thread from this time last year is worth doing if only to bring a degree of pragmatism to what is inevitably, much anticipation of what the upcoming winter may have in store.

Edited by bluearmy
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Brilliant post to get the ball rolling Chino, thank you.

I will be a regular reader of this thread and look forward to all the contributions from the other regulars.

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Great opening post, going to be a fascinating season again. We will also have the GFS upgrade include better modelling of the stratosphere come November time..

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Yes I'll be looking forward to that to Lorenzo.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Thanks all.

rather early to be looking too closely at events in the strat but it cant do any harm to see a warming area on the asian side at the top of the strat being consistently shown at the back end of recent gfs runs. anything that might disrupt a cold organised strat vortex from forming will be welcome. i recall it was a series of small warmings early on that helped to set the building blocks for the frigid december in 2010.

 

not wanting to burst any bubbles but a quick read through the strat thread from this time last year is worth doing if only to bring a degree of pragmatism to what is inevitably, much anticipation of what the upcoming winter may have in store.

 

It's certainly worth being pragmatic, Nick. I see that the GFS has started early with the gold at the end of the rainbow this year! The warmings at the end of the runs are almost an omnipresent feature over the last few years!

Great post Ed! Hoping to join in on the discussion this fall/winter.

Cheers from Toronto, On.

 

Great to see you back and look forward to your input.

Great opening post, going to be a fascinating season again. We will also have the GFS upgrade include better modelling of the stratosphere come November time..

I think that the upgrade isn't due until December now, Tony.

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Good to see some decent warming at 1hpa and 2hpa from 24hrs out to the end of the run! Although way too early yet I suspect.

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post-15287-0-09539100-1413059194_thumb.g

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Edited by Frozen Britain

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Thanks all.

 

It's certainly worth being pragmatic, Nick. I see that the GFS has started early with the gold at the end of the rainbow this year! The warmings at the end of the runs are almost an omnipresent feature over the last few years!

 

Great to see you back and look forward to your input.

I think that the upgrade isn't due until December now, Tony.

 

not just gfs ed - i note yesterdays ecm output showed zonal winds dropping in the upper strat over the next 10 days (at a time when i suspect they should be headed the other way). looks like some wave 1 activity responsible ?

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Great intro Ed.

So another season begins,always a good thread to follow as it adds another dimension to model watching.

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Great to see the new strat thread,and never to early for wave 1. :)

 

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Fantastic to see this thread up and running, look forward to seeing loads of interesting and informative posts on the strat in the coming weeks and months!

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here we are again for another season good to c thread back up and running. excelent opening post chio keep up the good work man.

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Thank you, Ed - a very comprehensive 'mode d'emploi' in your opener. :hi:

http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fphy.2014.00025/full?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=Physics-w18-2014

 

Variation in solar irradiance is considered an important factor in natural climate forcing. Variations in the solar UV in particular are now regarded as a major source of decadal variability in the stratosphere, influencing surface climate through stratosphere–troposphere coupling. However, by analyzing meteorological re-analysis data we find that the magnitude of the solar controlled energetic particle forcing signal in stratospheric zonal mean zonal winds and polar temperatures is equivalent to those arising from solar irradiance variations during the Northern Hemisphere polar winter months. We find that energetic particle forcing drives warmer polar upper stratospheric temperatures from early winter leading to an anomalously strong polar night jet via modulation of the vertical temperature gradient. By midwinter the stratosphere–troposphere coupling pathway becomes analogous to the solar UV impact at high latitudes. This not only highlights the importance of the energetic particle forcing contribution to stratospheric circulation, but enables us to understand the pathways responsible for the previously reported energetic particle forcing impacts on the troposphere in terms of the coupling of solar UV forcing to dynamics in the latter part of the winter.

 

 

This article was published in the spring of this year so don't know if it has been discussed in other topics - didn't see it in the previous thread. It is looking at another aspect of solar influence on the winter polar stratosphere, namely energetic particle forcing.

 

Some have posited that sudden bursts of solar activity have scuppered forecasts - could this research offer validation of the idea?

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Always welcome this thread, its a good read for those looking at possible longer term trends and posts are always well constructed with evidence to back up thoughts - unlike the model thread which unfortunately at times can become full of posts with sensationalist or doom mongering overtones.

 

I remember this thread in Dec 2012 very well, with early signs of a SSW and alas this occurred.

 

Last year the thread was very quiet - associated with dire wintry prospects, indeed a way of monitoring cold potential is monitoring the amount of activity in this thread.

 

Reading the first post - yes some encouraging signs that this winter will not be a repeat of last year's, my only concern at the moment is solar activity, if this could go quiet in the next few weeks I'd be much happier, it does seem to be taking ages to quieten down this cycle, and I really do think low activity was a major factor in the cold conditions of the winters of 08/09 through to 10/11, the milder 11/12 winter when we saw stronger activity, is it a coincidence last winter was mild, just when solar maxima cycle peaked?

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Cheers SK. All interesting and positive early signs. Out of interest the ECMWF and EUROSIP seasonal models will be updated mid-week this week. Neither, so far, are anywhere near blocked and signal a zonal-style winter. I'll comment on the latest update this week out of interest.

M.

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