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OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015


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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    do you guys really need to wait....

     

    The OPI being the figure it should be ~ middle 2's neg then theres plenty of analogue data available.....

     

    S

     

    I think the more interesting part of the forecast will be the wave activity Steve and how they see the timing of those, re: the good pattern prediction last Winter over America, hopefully they release NH plots or Europe plots this time.

    post-7292-0-95969100-1415617747_thumb.pn

     

    post-7292-0-70604500-1415617895_thumb.gipost-7292-0-92566400-1415617894_thumb.pn

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    As ever, a great summary of how things stand from Ed and I think for the last 19, or pretty much 20 days now we have all been waiting for this point in the month and beyond. It's been rather 'fun' wat

    The discussion of the OPI index trend is understandably causing a lot of interest and (cautious) excitement amongst members after Riccardo's very interesting opening post that started this thread. The

    The monitoring page of the “October pattern index†(OPI) is presented. The OPI index  represents a analytic synthesis of the October hemispheric pattern at 500 hPa, and shows from  previous studi

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    I think the more interesting part of the forecast will be the wave activity Steve and how they see the timing of those, re: the good pattern prediction last Winter over America, hopefully they release NH plots or Europe plots this time.

    attachicon.gif7kss.png

     

    attachicon.giftime_pres_HGT_ANOM_OND_NH_2014.gifattachicon.gifqjwt.png

     

    I think they did release Europe plots last year too but it didn't quite match what we got. On the other hand the North America plot was nailed almost perfectly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Just noticed we are on page 63. :ninja:

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    Posted
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset

    Just noticed we are on page 63. :ninja:

    Yes page 63 is dedicated to lamp post watching - no not for snow but for Santas Sleigh towing a banner with the OPI results posted on it -  for all to see!  :yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

    Late comer to the topic and wondering is said Forecast has been launched yet? Anyone got a link ( I assume it will be posted here asap anyway? )

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    I think yesterday, it wasn't saying tomorrow. It said soon, next week or something like that.

    Anyway just be patient. Tomorrow we will have the prediction.

    I checked the page yesterday and it said "tomorrow", so it just hasn't been changed today. Either way, we won't have long to wait now anyway!

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    Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

    Something everyone needs to know about Italians and time.

    They have a saying tempo Inglese which means at a specific time outside of that in Italian time can be anytime no rush

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    Posted
  • Location: Consett, County Durham
  • Location: Consett, County Durham

    I presume we're talking about the forecast rather than the OPI itself, which is there; -2.12.

     

    (Click OPI - Final data above where it says "The revision of the index OPI and forecast")

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    I presume we're talking about the forecast rather than the OPI itself, which is there; -2.12.

     

    (Click OPI - Final data above where it says "The revision of the index OPI and forecast")

    Just slightly confused?.....http://app.til.it/opi/   It does say 'Final Data' but then the date is 31.10 But then again it says "The revision of the index OPI and forecast

    for the coming winter will be available Tomorrow" But again, was this Yesterday or today ......Anybody :cc_confused:

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Well at least we now have one forecast going for colder than average, though I guess to a degree it was a formality given the OPI value. Definitely an air of uncertainty though given the longer range models not particularly biting the cold bait.

    opi1.jpg

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Well at least we now have one forecast going for colder than average, though I guess to a degree it was a formality given the OPI value. Definitely an air of uncertainty though given the longer range models not particularly biting the cold bait.

    opi1.jpg

    Yes, and they explicitly note the great rift between their (and presumably Cohen's) forecast and the model LRFs. It's going to be a big test for both the OPI and SAI.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

    Very interesting read, it's been a fascinating thread to follow. 

     

    -2.12 the final OPI reading and that's expected to lead to a better chance of more colder incursions around Europe and C/E United States. 

     

    I wonder whether we will be looking back at this in March to be taking it with a huge pinch of salt in the future or whether we have unlocked a new long term winter forcecasting pattern...totally fascinating either way...

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Well at least we now have one forecast going for colder than average, though I guess to a degree it was a formality given the OPI value. Definitely an air of uncertainty though given the longer range models not particularly biting the cold bait.

    opi1.jpg

    If I am reading this correctly, the OPI team are going for UK 850hPa temperatures at 2C-3C below average over the coming winter, and also quite unsettled. Sounds like a forecast for snow. In fact it's a bit of a ramp of a forecast for us: http://app.til.it/opi/

    Edited by rjbw
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