OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015

[LomondSnowstorm]

If I understand crocs post correctly, the final opi number on the 31st will NOT be the final opi figure for the month.

 

If you mean the OPI value for the 31st itself then you're correct, but the value on the opi site on the 31st will be the final value for the OPI. The OPI is the average of the daily values of the parameters shown in Croc's excellent post, which is why the value has been stabilising over the last few days.

[Bristawl Si]

Just had a look at the cfs nao index and the bad news is it has completely flipped to a postive outlook compared to what it was showing last week!!!also the blocked runs it was showing for the past couple of months have practically vanished!!!on the other hand the ao looks like remaining neautral to negative!!knowing our luck though that will change for the worse as well!

"Just had a look at the cfs nao index and the bad news is it has completely flipped to a postive outlook compared to what it was showing last week!!!"

 

That's just the CFS being the CFS -

it flips more times than Tom Daley does in a major diving competition.

[Frozen Britain]

Do not be surprised to see the PV becoming far more organised during November. I think that a trough to the south of Greenland would be expected this year through the next month. Those expecting severe disruption of the PV during the next month may be quite disappointed.

Hello Chionomaniac,

 

Would you care to elaborate? (1)Couldn't we still get warming from the strong ozone we have seen during October over Canada and Alaska, despite very little, if any, wave breaking activity? (2)From your post, I assume that is what you mean - that there will be very little wave breaking because the northern hemispheric pattern you are expecting for November is unfavourable for it? (3)Could you tell us all what you expect in terms of wave activity and the northern hemispheric pattern you do expect, that brings you to the conclusion that conditions going forward do not favour much in the way of warming? Thank you.

[Hocus Pocus]

Whatever this winter throws at us I thoroughly enjoyed this thread and it's workings that go into it, I just hope that we don't see silly posts classing it as a fad just because there's no snow IMBY. Good luck to all the OPI team for the future and thank you for sharing your work and thoughts with us all.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The questions I have are simple. Firstly is the second half of October weighted more than the first half and if not then why not? Secondly, what happens if we see a gradual strengthening of the PV throughout the month, followed by a raging PV during November (but still with a sig -ve OPI figure)? Looks like we could be in this situation this year. Could it be this exact situation which leads to the small % of years where the OPI and winter AO don't correlate very well?

[karyo]

Hello Chionomaniac,

 

Would you care to elaborate? (1)Couldn't we still get warming from the strong ozone we have seen during October over Canada and Alaska, despite very little, if any, wave breaking activity? (2)From your post, I assume that is what you mean - that there will be very little wave breaking because the northern hemispheric pattern you are expecting for November is unfavourable for it? (3)Could you tell us all what you expect in terms of wave activity and the northern hemispheric pattern you do expect, that brings you to the conclusion that conditions going forward do not favour much in the way of warming? Thank you.

I'd love to hear Chiono's view too!

[bluearmy]

too many questions which probably don't have answers. I think it's about feedback mechanisms and their influence on other drivers such as the strat.

Good to see other variables being introduced - after all, it is the weather we're discussing!

[stewfox]

The questions I have are simple. Firstly is the second half of October weighted more than the first half and if not then why not? Secondly, what happens if we see a gradual strengthening of the PV throughout the month, followed by a raging PV during November (but still with a sig -ve OPI figure)? Looks like we could be in this situation this year. Could it be this exact situation which leads to the small % of years where the OPI and winter AO don't correlate very well?

 

Anyway of testing this with some of the weaker correlations in the 1990s that BFTV found ?

[pandit-scholar]

I see that the Daily Express and our old friend are now using the OPI as another basis for their prediction of the coldest winter ever.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/528643/Winter-2014-weather-warning-snow-arctic-freezing-temperatures-forecast

This is very premature as the OPI creators have yet to make a winter forecaster. Let's hope they haven't cursed it.

[radiohead]

I see that the Daily Express and our old friend are now using the OPI as another basis for their prediction of the coldest winter ever.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/528643/Winter-2014-weather-warning-snow-arctic-freezing-temperatures-forecast

This is very premature as the OPI creators have yet to make a winter forecaster. Let's hope they haven't cursed it.

 

What was it last year again? "100 days of snow, worst winter in 60 years on the way..."

Edited October 28, 2014 by radiohead

[chionomaniac]

Hello Chionomaniac,

 

Would you care to elaborate? (1)Couldn't we still get warming from the strong ozone we have seen during October over Canada and Alaska, despite very little, if any, wave breaking activity? (2)From your post, I assume that is what you mean - that there will be very little wave breaking because the northern hemispheric pattern you are expecting for November is unfavourable for it? (3)Could you tell us all what you expect in terms of wave activity and the northern hemispheric pattern you do expect, that brings you to the conclusion that conditions going forward do not favour much in the way of warming? Thank you.

One would expect the polar vortex to strengthen in line with seasonal expectations - even before we take Cohen's feedback into consideration. This occurs rapidly during November and this year is likely to be no different. When looking at analogs of previous years when similar conditions have prevailed the one would expect a deep Atlantic trough to prevail and that is what I expect to occur this November. Already the modeling is starting to firm up on this idea.

 

Yes, we have seen increased autumnal strat ozone and wave number 1 activity but currently this is not forecast to be strong enough to bring about tropospheric impacts (for at least the first 2/3 weeks of November). There is a feeling that there will be a disconnect this season between the top and the bottom of the stratosphere (like 2009) but I think that this is second favourite and as suggested in the strat thread I feel that we are more likely to have strong wave activity in Jan. And the Cohen paper reaffirms those thoughts.

 

At this point we need to see where November takes us before declaring too much.......

[karyo]

I see that the Daily Express and our old friend are now using the OPI as another basis for their prediction of the coldest winter ever.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/528643/Winter-2014-weather-warning-snow-arctic-freezing-temperatures-forecast

This is very premature as the OPI creators have yet to make a winter forecaster. Let's hope they haven't cursed it.

They've been following the OPI thread! 

At least this time they are basing their headline on something scientific!

Edited October 28, 2014 by karyo

[Summer Sun]

Looks like the 12z is getting ignored

[Mair Snaw]

thats it winter is over........  http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/528643/Winter-2014-weather-warning-snow-arctic-freezing-temperatures-forecast

[bobbydog]

I'm sure we will.

If the OPI turns out to be an accurate indicator of our winter, we are potentially looking at a severe one this year. Of course, we are viewing it with caution at this stage.

However, the likes of Madden will be shouting it from the rooftops to 'get in first' with doomsday forecasts via the Daily Mail etc

  

I see that the Daily Express and our old friend are now using the OPI as another basis for their prediction of the coldest winter ever.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/528643/Winter-2014-weather-warning-snow-arctic-freezing-temperatures-forecast

This is very premature as the OPI creators have yet to make a winter forecaster. Let's hope they haven't cursed it.

Well.... guess who's 'got in first' using the OPI to declare the onset of snowmageddon?

yes... Madden!!!

I think i might do a winter forecast.

How much snow does everyone want?.......

[snowking]

Well I like that Judah Cohen is all of a sudden Italian and an author working on the OPI.

 

I also like that James Madden has clearly taken "his" figures from Steve Murr's hard work in terms of the sub -1.5 OPI.

 

Apart from that, wholly accurate...

 

SK

[DAVID SNOW]

Well I like that Judah Cohen is all of a sudden Italian and an author working on the OPI.

 

I also like that James Madden has clearly taken "his" figures from Steve Murr's hard work in terms of the sub -1.5 OPI.

 

Apart from that, wholly accurate...

 

SK

 

LOL sk, its a shame that someone has been following this great thread and is employed by the Daily Distress.

[bobbydog]

LOL sk, its a shame that someone has been following this great thread and is employed by the Daily Distress.

What is a shame, is that if Madden followed ALL of the great threads on netweather and used all the excellent information available to him , he could probably produce an pretty accurate forecast.

[DAVID SNOW]

What is a shame, is that if Madden followed ALL of the great threads on netweather and used all the excellent information available to him , he could probably produce an pretty accurate forecast.

 

Indeed bb, but would it sell papers?? To those that pay for such tripe?............

[throwoff]

The saddest thing about all this is that it is looking like we could have a bit of snow this winter and very hard working NW posters are diligently posting reams of data and then on top translating it for those of us not as knowledgeable as they are. Then someone like Madden reads these posts and profits from them.

[Duane S.]

A quote from Madden in that Express piece>>>

“As we progress throughout November, it will begin to turn gradually cooler"

 

He actually understands more than I previously gave him credit for.

[radiohead]

No 12Z yesterday and now no 0Z this morning either after the significant late rise on the 06Z yesterday. Seems odd. With 29 consolidated days and only 2 forecast days to go, you really wouldn't think there would be enough time for the model to shift to such a degree that the runs would need to be canned.

Edited October 29, 2014 by radiohead

[bobbydog]

No 12Z yesterday and now no 0Z this morning either after the significant late rise on the 06Z yesterday. Seems odd. With 29 consolidated days and only 2 forecast days to go, you really wouldn't think there would be enough time for the model to shift to such a degree that the runs would need to be canned.

It could be the opposite. Maybe with only 2 days to go the shift would be so slight that its not worth calculating every run. (though yesterdays shift was surprisingly quite large) Im not sure what time the actual data for each day is verified but they may just use the nearest run to that time. It might also explain the large shift if they only used one errant run. If that is the case, then it should drop lower again today (hopefully!)

[Forecasts4u]

What a fascinating thread, many thanks to all involved.  It's certainly a very interesting area of study and it will be intriguing to see what comes of the findings from this October and then to see how this winter plays out.  Looking forward to future developments with regards to this!

[EML Network]

A quote from Madden in that Express piece>>>

“As we progress throughout November, it will begin to turn gradually cooler"

 

He actually understands more than I previously gave him credit for.

 HA HA HA Brilliant !!!