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OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015


Riccardo

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

There is now : -2.43

Thanks radiohead, I am too impatient! lol

 

Great figure and remarkable stability now that only a few days remain.

 

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Thanks radiohead, I am too impatient! lol

 

Great figure and remarkable stability now that only a few days remain.

 

Karyo

 

I like that it is stabilizing at a decent negative value. Quite exciting to put the OPI to the test this winter! :)

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

can't wait for the winter with this figure! hehe

'Can't wait' doesn't even begin to describe it! This month would have been unbearable without the OPI to take my mind off the horrible mildness outside!

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

I like that it is stabilizing at a great negative value. Quite exciting to put the OPI to the test this winter! :)

Indeed! Now all eyes will turn on the stratosphere!

 

PS i have edited one key word in your post!  :drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

'Can't wait' doesn't even begin to describe it! This month would have been unbearable without the OPI to take my mind off the horrible mildness outside!

 

Hmm I am skeptical after the latest met office update...  :sorry:

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Problem is for the OPI now, is that with such a negative figure (2nd lowest ever recorded in the series), it would be back to the drawing board for long range forecasting if we get three months of mild mush.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Problem is for the OPI now, is that with such a negative figure (2nd lowest ever recorded in the series), it would be back to the drawing board for long range forecasting if we get three months of mild mush.

 

Also worth remembering that last year, in its first year as a forecast rather than hindcast tool, the OPI got the AO "wrong", off by about 1.5. Though in fairness the North American part of their forecast was spot on and we did end up with a very mild winter here regardless of the AO not being as positive as expected.

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Hmm I am skeptical after the latest met office update...  :sorry:

think with the opi been negative they is a high chance of the Northern hemisphere been under a cold block. But after reading that update from the met I can see the uk been on the wrong side of the block. Leaving us on the milder side of the jet stream.
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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

Hmm I am skeptical after the latest met office update...  :sorry:

Are you referring to the 3 monthly Contingency Planners update? If so, it does indeed state milder than average and wetter than average, but importantly they only have confidence in this for the "early period".

So let's say that covers November (which is still autumn). Once we move into Dec and Jan (ie winter), they have little confidence, and Feb isn't even covered yet.

But I do tend to agree that as a professional outfit, their reference to a milder than average winter cannot be ignored. However I am consoled by the fact that in recent years they've been wide of the mark.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Where can you get the met office forecast alluded too above??

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Wouldn't worry too much about the met office forecast - they hardly have a 100% track record.

They have clearly gone with what their model is currently predicting. They have had some shockers in the past; hopefully another one this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

Where can you get the met office forecast alluded too above??

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

And my apologies Isolated Frost you're right. Here is the thread for that subject everyone https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/

Edited by Paul_1978
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Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

Am I right in thinking that this strongly negative index just means a slower flow if the jetstream and more meandering, and that the likelihood of us being caught in a cold section of the meanders is more due to other indices? Or is the fact that the map on the TIL OPI page shows Europe saying that we in the UK have a very high chance of having cold weather? What could influence the length of the cold snap between now and "winter" if it turns out that the final OPI is -2? Sorry if my questions are too obvious, I may have missed something.

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Think the opi needs to be put into perspective yes it has coleration with colder winters. But we could very much be sat on the wrong side of the block in the uk. Leaving us open to westerly pattern. So think it's a waiting game and see what crops up as we move into latter part of November.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Fascinating. So actually their work is inconclusive, and this season goes back to being a stinker to predict!

 

Use google translate - it works a treat. It'll do the whole page.

 

No the correlation between SAI and OPI this season is good, but runs against the prediction of their latest zonal index.

 

Let's hope the zonal index - the latest addition - is still experimental and off target!

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

Fascinating. So actually their work is mixed, and this season goes back to being a stinker to predict!

 

Use google translate - it works a treat. It'll do the whole page.

 

No the correlation between SAI and OPI this season is good, but runs against the prediction of their latest zonal index.

Thanks C H. So 52 pages down the line and we find their findings are mixed, oh dear. :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Although all their indicators are pointing to an "interesting" December...

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

So after 52 pages of ups and downs it appears we are back to square one. You couldn't write it really. Suppose I will just stick with the met office after all.

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Posted
  • Location: Crawley
  • Location: Crawley

So after 52 pages of ups and downs it appears we are back to square one. You couldn't write it really. Suppose I will just stick with the met office after all.

Is that true? Are we really back to square one? (can not check the link posted, on my phone) 

If so you could not make this up. 

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