OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015

[Man With Beard]

I would think some of the recent winters might be an example where we have watched the cold slide south into France from a north easterly direction. I can only think that the anomaly is greatest in France as it is usually the first port of call of the Azores ridge which has been the predominant pattern in the period of climatology on the composites the OPI uses. ie 81 -10.

yes fair point - so your example would be a bit like 2005/6 which was very cold in Europe, fairly cold here but predominantly dry and out of the firing line of the most severe weather.

So anyway the message of the European chart is potentially cold but far from certain where the severest cold would go.

[Gael_Force]

yes fair point - so your example would be a bit like 2005/6 which was very cold in Europe, fairly cold here but predominantly dry and out of the firing line of the most severe weather.

So anyway the message of the European chart is potentially cold but far from certain where the severest cold would go.

 

Yes - the most recent extreme example is Feb 2012. Perhaps also why the NE of Spain is shaded too.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=2&hour=0&year=2012&map=7&mode=2

 

The incursion of cold and anomalous low heights could come from due north too. That archive format is like a continuous run of the GFS - have a look at some of the other dates of cold spells.

[bobbydog]

If the low pressure sat over europe all winter ( i.e. as shown on the map) we all had better google "how to make an igloo"....

[Duane S.]

If the low pressure sat over europe all winter ( i.e. as shown on the map) we all had better google "how to make an igloo"....

Absolutely, that is exactly what we want to see!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think in general, if you were to pick a place you'd want the most negative height anomaly for an easterly setup it'd be somewhere from southern England to northern Italy, with the other option being the North Sea/Benelux with a Greenland High to the west.

A few examples:   

 

February 2012 had the lowest height anomaly a bit too far south over the Med, and neutral over northern France/ Benelux, which send the cold air too far south

This might be one area where a continuation of the stronger jet we saw last winter might be of benefit (provided it's tracking far enough south of course) to 'prop' the blocking high up.

[radiohead]

-2.34 this morning.

[Timmytour]

Late Breaking News people.

 

as long as the reanalysis charts are Available on Nov 30th I will be releasing a forecast for Winter.

 

In terms of the OPI it will be covered.

 

These legends are KEY to remember.

Junior AO months are winter months with an average index -1.0

Super AO months are Winter months with an average index -2.0

 

This Winter is going to be a STRONG Negative QBO Winter & relating to that based on the OPI graph we find the following.

 

with an OPI index or -0.4 or Above there is nearly a 100% chance you will not see a Winter with a Junior or Super AO.

with an OPI Index from -0.5 to -1.5 you have nearly a 100% chance of seeing a Junior AO month ( possibly 2), & around a 40% chance of seeing a Super AO month

With an OPI index below -1.5 there is nearly 100% chance you will see a Super AO & at least X2 junior AOs.

 

 

In a nutshell, an OPI over -0.4 & you can forget a good blocked Winter, below that -pref below -1 & your odds on at least 1 very blocked Month..

 

S

Thought it might be useful to repost SM's excellent post from page 1 about here.  Remember no guarantees, but a strong indication that, if the OPI stays around its current value, there's a good chance there will bre t least a month of good blocking,and of course from the blocking an enhanced potential for some good wintry weather to come our way.

Last year there's was nothing in the way of "raw material" for us to hope we could tap into and build something....it seems that this winter will at least  provide the raw material......we just gotta hope there's some decent builders around!

 

[Weather-history]

The AO and NAO must have fell threw the floor during January 1940

It would be interesting to see what the OPI would have been for October 1939. It was a cold wet month here. Must have come as a shock January 1940 for many people. There had been cold months before but not on that intensity since February 1895.

Late November to Boxing Day 2010 had a CET similar to January 1940.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thought it might be useful to repost SM's excellent post from page 1 about here.  Remember no guarantees, but a strong indication that, if the OPI stays around its current value, there's a good chance there will bre t least a month of good blocking,and of course from the blocking an enhanced potential for some good wintry weather to come our way.

Last year there's was nothing in the way of "raw material" for us to hope we could tap into and build something....it seems that this winter will at least  provide the raw material......we just gotta hope there's some decent builders around!

 

It seems that -1.5 below is in the bag so another building block in place.  Steve mentions the correlation of a super -ve AO which I don't argue against other than it may not fall wholly into any winter month eg it may straddle months. 

 

BFTP

[shaky]

-2.34 this morning.

up on yesterday's 12z!!!

[kimb]

I'm a bit of novice but I'd never heard of the OPI before this winter ! Are we not looking at this and hoping that it's going to lead to something better than last year when there are loads of other things to consider as well ?

[snowking]

I'm a bit of novice but I'd never heard of the OPI before this winter ! Are we not looking at this and hoping that it's going to lead to something better than last year when there are loads of other things to consider as well ?

Potentially yes. The research is yet to be verified by the scientific community, and as such it would be right for people to treat this with a certain level of scepticism.

However, when you go back and look at OPI figures and their correlation with the AO index through the winter months the correlation is astonishing. I've been watching winter forecasts amongst the "amateur" weather community (that's feels slightly derogatory in fact as some of the research and knowledge demonstrated on this very forum is often ahead of professional organisations - the stratosphere being a great example of this) for about 15 years and I have not come across a tool with such promise in that time.

Add to this some of Steve's excellent analysis of the figures, relating them back to other indexes too and accounting for the strength of the anomaly and we do have some very positive signs for the months ahead.

Of course ultimately only in hindsight will we know whether these early signals prove true or not, and this winter will provide a good test of the theory.

But right now there is great cause for optimism

SK

[bluearmy]

If there is anything in this, a bad winter spell could have a big impact on the next GE via reduced GDP numbers (re USA numbers for this year)

I wonder if anyone in government is taking any notice of stuff like this. They may want to get their excuses in early via an early winter forecast of possible severe cold which could Inpact the economy.

But OT but would be interesting if we see anything in the media once riccardo's team have published their winter predictions

[bobbydog]

If there is anything in this, a bad winter spell could have a big impact on the next GE via reduced GDP numbers (re USA numbers for this year)

I wonder if anyone in government is taking any notice of stuff like this. They may want to get their excuses in early via an early winter forecast of possible severe cold which could Inpact the economy.

But OT but would be interesting if we see anything in the media once riccardo's team have published their winter predictions

I'm sure we will.

If the OPI turns out to be an accurate indicator of our winter, we are potentially looking at a severe one this year. Of course, we are viewing it with caution at this stage.

However, the likes of Madden will be shouting it from the rooftops to 'get in first' with doomsday forecasts via the Daily Mail etc

[stewfox]

It would be interesting to see what the OPI would have been for October 1939. It was a cold wet month here. Must have come as a shock January 1940 for many people. There had been cold months before but not on that intensity since February 1895.

 

 

 According to Carlesberg it was -2.34 same as today . We watch and await the final end of month figure with baited breath ??

 

Supporting video coming out shortly

 

Edited October 26, 2014 by stewfox

[Mucka]

If there is anything in this, a bad winter spell could have a big impact on the next GE via reduced GDP numbers (re USA numbers for this year)

I wonder if anyone in government is taking any notice of stuff like this. They may want to get their excuses in early via an early winter forecast of possible severe cold which could Inpact the economy.

But OT but would be interesting if we see anything in the media once riccardo's team have published their winter predictions

 

Aren't government advised by the MetO?

Thus far their seasonal model is going for a repeat of last year, mild, very wet and very stormy.

I can't see them going completely against their own model,,which was built with government funding, in favour of a theory not yet peer reviewed.

Given that their seasonal model though, as with all of them, is a bit of a waste of time it will put them in a difficult position.

 

I think it is at times like these they will be glad they pulled their seasonal forecasts.

Edited October 26, 2014 by Mucka

[Fingers]

After watching Gavs 2nd winter model update it's only the Jamstec that has anything remotely wintry for us and the the whole of mainland Europe. With the OPI looking at being between -2.0/-2.5 this, without exception from the sample data we have, will deliver some colder than average months to Europe even if we are unlucky and miss out with the bulk of the cold plunging SW through Europe and in to France. As Steve said with the potential for one super AO and at least 2 junior AO's, a strong negative QBO, a developing although weak El Niño, fairly low sunspot activity and great advance of snow build up through Siberia I am quietly optimistic we will see something very good through the winter period although maybe towards the mid/latter end.

Clem

Edited October 26, 2014 by Fingers

[Gael_Force]

After watching Gavs 2nd winter model update it's only the Jamstec that has anything remotely wintry for us and the the whole of mainland Europe. With the OPI looking at being between -2.0/-2.5 this, without exception from the sample data we have, will deliver some colder than average months to Europe even if we are unlucky and miss out with the bulk of the cold plunging SW through Europe and in to France. As Steve said with the potential for one super AO and at least 2 junior AO's, a strong negative QBO, a developing although weak El Niño, fairly low sunspot activity and great advance of snow build up through Siberia I am quietly optimistic we will see something very good through the winter period although maybe towards the mid/latter end.

Clem

 

What none of these seasonal models can predict is how the stratosphere will behave as winter patterns develop.

I can only assume that the OPI is picking up on some loading pattern which will be conducive to wave action, leading to increased SSW potential.

 

Most of the models are singing from the same hymn sheet - there has to be a strong signal - from reading about them, they are heavily weighted to tropical signals being the main driver.

 

The Canadian model is the only one which shows anything like the OPI map and that is way into February.

 

[ukpaul]

This is going to be fascinating, pretty much all of the 'traditional' indicators saying this will be very warm and a number of the newer indicators saying it will be notably cold.

 

Winter long range forecasting has been pretty useless for as long as I can remember, I never believe anything that they say. Maybe this will be the year that we get some of the way towards working out why that has been so.

[SE Blizzards]

6z update.... -2.38

[Isolated Frost]

I think most long term models are generally preset to a more mobile, traditional pattern and any notable differences will be tempered by its signals.

I'm sure the OPI and SAI will override some signals; and the general correlation is strong enough to suggest that. 

[summer blizzard]

I think most long term models are generally preset to a more mobile, traditional pattern and any notable differences will be tempered by its signals.

I'm sure the OPI and SAI will override some signals; and the general correlation is strong enough to suggest that. 

 

Each model before its upgraded has a bias. Back in my early days here (05-07) the GFS had a severe bias towards producing stonking FI northerlies all year round. Then it got an upgrade (this was around the time the Euro became top dog but had a bias to blocking) and it had a bias towards Bartletts in FI.

 

Not sure what the biases are now but it's pretty interesting to see the models evolve.

[Penrith Snow]

This is going to be fascinating, pretty much all of the 'traditional' indicators saying this will be very warm and a number of the newer indicators saying it will be notably cold.

 

Winter long range forecasting has been pretty useless for as long as I can remember, I never believe anything that they say. Maybe this will be the year that we get some of the way towards working out why that has been so.

What signals are pointing to a mild winter? Obviously there must be some as all the seasonal forecasts point one way but what are they?

Anyway I ignore all the seasonal models as they are pants, last year was a classic example as most including the MetO indicated a mid latitude block with cool, dry weather in the UK, how wrong can you be! I have never seen the MetO correctly model a cold season.

Andy

[captaincroc]

I think most long term models are generally preset to a more mobile, traditional pattern and any notable differences will be tempered by its signals.

I'm sure the OPI and SAI will override some signals; and the general correlation is strong enough to suggest that. 

 

I remember last year a lot of the long term signals were going for a blocked winter. I remember many a deep red anomaly to the north of us....and we know how last winter turned out.

 

So fingers crossed here.... 

[karyo]

I remember last year a lot of the long term signals were going for a blocked winter. I remember many a deep red anomaly to the north of us....and we know how last winter turned out.

 

So fingers crossed here.... 

Exactly! If we were aware of the OPI last October we would know that a mild winter was likely.