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Riccardo

OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015

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Does anyone in this thread actually know a uniform PV looks like- SIGH

 

The landing zone based on actual values likely to be sub -1 as a minimum.

 

S

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Does anyone in this thread actually know a uniform PV looks like- SIGH

 

The landing zone based on actual values likely to be sub -1 as a minimum.

 

S

That would still be a tad disappointing to say the least after the possible landing zone based on the last few days figures.
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As the old saying goes the weather will make fools of us all. If the opi just only end up slightly negative or even goes into a positive there is diddly squat we can do about it. Just enjoy the ride. And see what we end up with at the end of March.

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I knows it's not a guessing forum, however I think a value in the -2s will be back tomorrow and restore faith and hope. If snow cover does assist with blocking maybe the models aren't picking up on its benefit and changes to HLB may happen relatively late.

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Ok heres where we are today.

 

-44.50 ( estimated ) / 20 = -2.22

 

with 11 days left we need the following daily values to deliver these numbers.

 

0       = +4.04

-0.5   = +2.63

-1      = +1.22

-1.5   = -0.54

-2     =  -1.95

-2.5  = - 3.36

 

As we can see the odds are near 100% that the index wont get to positive.

If you have looked at the models which indicate a LESS negative OPI, but DONT indicate a positive OPI then you would hedge your bets that the landing zone will between -1.5 & -2.

remember the GFS is likely to be to progressive today so that -1.86 should gradually drop inline with when the GFS increases pressure towards the pole.

 

People need to unsettle their nerves.

 

regards
S

Edited by Steve Murr
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I knows it's not a guessing forum, however I think a value in the -2s will be back tomorrow and restore faith and hope. If snow cover does assist with blocking maybe the models aren't picking up on its benefit and changes to HLB may happen relatively late.

 

Well put it this way the GFS was late on picking up the blocking in the pole and eventually caught up with the GEM and I have also noticed that the blocking over northern Scandinavia has been getting stronger in the short term, I think wait and see what tomorrow brings but I am feeling happy about how negative the OPI has been compared to last year, I am just enjoying the conversations and it will be interesting to see what this winter brings. 

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I'd love to play poker with some of you (and I don't play poker!) .

Stop panicking ! We're barely half way through autumn, with 66% of the OPI fixed, we have runs today returning numbers sub 1.86. And this run is possibly the worst NH profile we've seen for ages.

Edited by bluearmy
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I feel the remainder of this month is going to be the start of what is going to be long old Winter of model watching....

 

God help us all ;)  :crazy:  :blink2:

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I thought the panicking was meant to be for Winter! It's the 2nd lowest OPI in 38 years of recording, and potentially the worst run we've seen a while; I'm sure we'll see it sub -2 sometime soon (not that it's particularly important to be so).

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This latest OPI value is based on one run of the GFS.

If this was mid december and the OPI didnt exist, would we all be shouting "winters over!" based one one bad GFS run?

I think not....

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I always like to use Meteoradar to look at snow prospects for the next 7 or so days over Scandi and Western Russia,

 

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/forecastloop (Look for the orange shading for where it's likely to snow)

 

It's not looking too great to be fair especially when you extend the run into this weekend and I doubt we'll see much further westward movement of snow than what it is at right now, perhaps flirting with the border between Russia and Europe by months end... something slightly similar happened last winter, we had a great start to October in terms of early snow cover advancing from Siberia, but about mid month it grinded to a halt. 

 

As far as the OPI is concerned, I suspect it won't get too much higher than the -1.8, I'd say we're likely to end up somewhere between - 1.5 and -2.

 

So there's no need to panic IMO. 

 

Other background signals all point towards the UK fairing much better than last winter for cold and snow prospects, but I think we're all going to have to be patient to get a repeat of the winters we want to see. 

Overall I, for one am confident we'll have a half decent Winter, I think we'll all get our share of cold and snow at some point, possibly early on and then again late on, with a bit of a mess in the middle. 

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I always like to use Meteoradar to look at snow prospects for the next 7 or so days over Scandi and Western Russia,

 

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/forecastloop (Look for the orange shading for where it's likely to snow)

 

It's not looking too great to be fair especially when you extend the run into this weekend and I doubt we'll see much further westward movement of snow than what it is at right now, perhaps flirting with the border between Russia and Europe by months end... something slightly similar happened last winter, we had a great start to October in terms of early snow cover advancing from Siberia, but about mid month it grinded to a halt. 

 

As far as the OPI is concerned, I suspect it won't get too much higher than the -1.8, I'd say we're likely to end up somewhere between - 1.5 and -2.

 

So there's no need to panic IMO. 

 

Other background signals all point towards the UK fairing much better than last winter for cold and snow prospects, but I think we're all going to have to be patient to get a repeat of the winters we want to see. 

Overall I, for one am confident we'll have a half decent Winter, I think we'll all get our share of cold and snow at some point, possibly early on and then again late on, with a bit of a mess in the middle. 

 

 

2008/09 and 2012/13 winters saw good starts and latter periods but messy middles. Dec 2008 started off cold then became very mild run up to Christmas, cold again around New Year, milder through second half of Jan much cold first half of Feb then very mild end - topsy turvy as it gets.. Dec 2012 again started off cold but we had a very mild second half Dec and first half to Jan, thereafter cold throughout.

 

I like a bit of variety.

 

This thread has made for good viewing these past three weeks.

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I'm beginning to think it might be better if the OPI comes in negative but not so low that expectations run wild. A value near -2.5 might see people becoming very impatient and expect the freeze to start on December 1st.

 

I'd view a lowish negative OPI simply as giving the UK a fighting chance of some decent wintry spells, for every rule there is always the exception and we should bear this in mind.

 

If for arguments sake we had a hundred years of data to compare that would increase our confidence, as it is we don't and need to take that into account.

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2008/09 and 2012/13 winters saw good starts and latter periods but messy middles. Dec 2008 started off cold then became very mild run up to Christmas, cold again around New Year, milder through second half of Jan much cold first half of Feb then very mild end - topsy turvy as it gets.. Dec 2012 again started off cold but we had a very mild second half Dec and first half to Jan, thereafter cold throughout.

 

I like a bit of variety.

 

This thread has made for good viewing these past three weeks.

Exceptional record start to 2008 start in late October.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120081030.gif

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Much better 18z.

yup was just gona post the same thing!!blocking looking stronger!!opi would easily be in the sub -2 category I feel!!!
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Noob question here but why does it matter if the NH is blocked/not blocked this early in mid-october? We wont get any real cold for weeks anyway?

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Noob question here but why does it matter if the NH is blocked/not blocked this early in mid-october? We wont get any real cold for weeks anyway?

 

Once a strong block forms it can last for weeks sometimes months. Last year when the polar vortex got it's strength going in October/November it never really weakened. The weaker the polar vortex now the harder it will be for it to gain it's strength later on and into winter.

Edited by Barry95
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Noob question here but why does it matter if the NH is blocked/not blocked this early in mid-october? We wont get any real cold for weeks anyway?

Most pertinently, the OPI is largely based around Arctic pressure patterns (in October) and there is a distinct correlation between OPI (October patterns) and the Winter Arctic Oscillation. A blocked Arctic, if in the right places, in October, often leads to a more blocked Arctic come Winter itself.

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Noob question here but why does it matter if the NH is blocked/not blocked this early in mid-october? We wont get any real cold for weeks anyway?

As a group of maritime islands on the precipice of a continent and one of the world's largest oceans we are at the mercy of the wind, despite our northerly latitude. In a race in which we are almost always playing catch-up, it's best that our biggest rival doesn't get too great of a head start.

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There's been 48 years of OPI recording, and in 8 of them, the OPI has been sub -1 (of course only one year, 2009, was sub -2)

 

OPI (Winter CET anomaly)

2009:  -3.15 (-2.1c)
1985:  -1.9 (-1.6c)
1984:  -1.8 (-1.8c)
1978:  -1.8 (-2.9c)
1976:  -1.75 (-1.2c)
2012:  -1.65 (-0.7c)
1986:  -1.3 (-1.0c)
1982:  -1.1 (-0.2c)

 

See, don't get too scared folks! Hell, even 1981-82, 1995-96 and 2010-11 are missing from here, night!

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One should not get too hung up on the state of the polar vortex at this stage - it is expected to develop by late october. If you had been looking at the appended charts in the daily NWP output, in context of the OPI, all hope would be seen to be gone.

For this year, so many of the things now considered important, were in the wrong phase ie. wQBO, peak of solar max and transitional ENSO. It is important to remember that nothing is ever as it seems in weather or the modelling of it.

 

The month in entirety  http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=10&day=1&year=1978&map=4&hour=0

 

Culminating in this apparently impenetrable object!

 

 

9QsA4R0.png

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