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OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015


Riccardo

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

do you guys really need to wait....

 

The OPI being the figure it should be ~ middle 2's neg then theres plenty of analogue data available.....

 

S

 

I think the more interesting part of the forecast will be the wave activity Steve and how they see the timing of those, re: the good pattern prediction last Winter over America, hopefully they release NH plots or Europe plots this time.

post-7292-0-95969100-1415617747_thumb.pn

 

post-7292-0-70604500-1415617895_thumb.gipost-7292-0-92566400-1415617894_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

I think the more interesting part of the forecast will be the wave activity Steve and how they see the timing of those, re: the good pattern prediction last Winter over America, hopefully they release NH plots or Europe plots this time.

attachicon.gif7kss.png

 

attachicon.giftime_pres_HGT_ANOM_OND_NH_2014.gifattachicon.gifqjwt.png

 

I think they did release Europe plots last year too but it didn't quite match what we got. On the other hand the North America plot was nailed almost perfectly.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Just noticed we are on page 63. :ninja:

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Posted
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset

Just noticed we are on page 63. :ninja:

Yes page 63 is dedicated to lamp post watching - no not for snow but for Santas Sleigh towing a banner with the OPI results posted on it -  for all to see!  :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Late comer to the topic and wondering is said Forecast has been launched yet? Anyone got a link ( I assume it will be posted here asap anyway? )

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

I think yesterday, it wasn't saying tomorrow. It said soon, next week or something like that.

Anyway just be patient. Tomorrow we will have the prediction.

I checked the page yesterday and it said "tomorrow", so it just hasn't been changed today. Either way, we won't have long to wait now anyway!

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

Something everyone needs to know about Italians and time.

They have a saying tempo Inglese which means at a specific time outside of that in Italian time can be anytime no rush

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Posted
  • Location: Consett, County Durham
  • Location: Consett, County Durham

I presume we're talking about the forecast rather than the OPI itself, which is there; -2.12.

 

(Click OPI - Final data above where it says "The revision of the index OPI and forecast")

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

I presume we're talking about the forecast rather than the OPI itself, which is there; -2.12.

 

(Click OPI - Final data above where it says "The revision of the index OPI and forecast")

Just slightly confused?.....http://app.til.it/opi/   It does say 'Final Data' but then the date is 31.10 But then again it says "The revision of the index OPI and forecast

for the coming winter will be available Tomorrow" But again, was this Yesterday or today ......Anybody :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well at least we now have one forecast going for colder than average, though I guess to a degree it was a formality given the OPI value. Definitely an air of uncertainty though given the longer range models not particularly biting the cold bait.

opi1.jpg

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Well at least we now have one forecast going for colder than average, though I guess to a degree it was a formality given the OPI value. Definitely an air of uncertainty though given the longer range models not particularly biting the cold bait.

opi1.jpg

Yes, and they explicitly note the great rift between their (and presumably Cohen's) forecast and the model LRFs. It's going to be a big test for both the OPI and SAI.

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

Very interesting read, it's been a fascinating thread to follow. 

 

-2.12 the final OPI reading and that's expected to lead to a better chance of more colder incursions around Europe and C/E United States. 

 

I wonder whether we will be looking back at this in March to be taking it with a huge pinch of salt in the future or whether we have unlocked a new long term winter forcecasting pattern...totally fascinating either way...

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Well at least we now have one forecast going for colder than average, though I guess to a degree it was a formality given the OPI value. Definitely an air of uncertainty though given the longer range models not particularly biting the cold bait.

opi1.jpg

If I am reading this correctly, the OPI team are going for UK 850hPa temperatures at 2C-3C below average over the coming winter, and also quite unsettled. Sounds like a forecast for snow. In fact it's a bit of a ramp of a forecast for us: http://app.til.it/opi/

Edited by rjbw
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