OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015

[bluearmy]

Starting the last day of October at -2.08

The angle of the axes has settled slightly higher than predicted a few days ago which has led to the drift towards -2 and away from -2.5.

[snowking]

looking again at the data sk gave in reply to my original post this evening. We still are left with a mix of QBO and ENSO. So any link, regardless of a deeply -ve OPI is not clear. It is highly interesting though and who knows, as |'ve just commented, it may be another link in the jig saw of trying to predict with reasonable accuracy what the winter may turn out to be.

Hi John,

As mentioned in the post, here is the second table, marking out years with El

Nino and eQBO. Small sample size, but still the same sort of message with regards to <-1 QBO:

https://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_10_2014/post-1038-0-15246200-1414251715.png

SK

[johnholmes]

Hi John,

As mentioned in the post, here is the second table, marking out years with El

Nino and eQBO. Small sample size, but still the same sort of message with regards to <-1 QBO:

https://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_10_2014/post-1038-0-15246200-1414251715.png

SK

 

thanks sk, has anyone got the NAO values for those years, East or West based, or are they the same sign as the ENSO? Daft question perhaps so sorry about it.

[picog]

Starting the last day of October at -2.08

The angle of the axes has settled slightly higher than predicted a few days ago which has led to the drift towards -2 and away from -2.5.

All the years with an OPI of <-1.0C have delivered a below average CET for the UK, so I am hopeful for this winter.

[easton888]

Just did a rough calculation based on the daily OPI figures, this month averages about -2.17. Not bad!

[snowking]

I couldn't comment on the CET average, but 2012/13 certainly finished below the 71-00 average, which is the measure I believe Netweather uses on the CET tracker presently and the measure I used to colour code the table. Perhaps there's some confusion being caused there?

SK

[johnholmes]

apologies all round-the old fella and his eyesight again, the 2012-13 was 4.8, 3.5, 3.2 NOT what I previously quoted. In fact this mistake was drawn to my attention yesterday, will make the necessary alterations.

 

I have deleted my previous post to try and avoid confusion!

Edited October 31, 2014 by johnholmes

[VillagePlank]

Does anyone have a link to the OPI raw data, please?

 

(for as many years as possible)

Edited October 31, 2014 by Sparkicle

[Steve C]

Does anyone have a link to the OPI raw data, please?

 

(for as many years as possible)

Don't think you'll find it yet.

[tcc]

-2.16 from the 06z - going down a little bit!

 

Either way we now wait with baited breath what the OPI team come up with as a forecast. Should be interesting reading!

[neige57]

-2.1 / -2.2 Should be the final figure, the second lowest since 1976 and just behind 2009

[DAVID SNOW]

-2.1 / -2.2 Should be the final figure, the second lowest since 1976 and just behind 2009

 

Does anyone know when the OPI Team will be releasing their final figure?

[neige57]

Does anyone know when the OPI Team will be releasing their final figure?

 

Do not worry, very quickly in early November

[DAVID SNOW]

Do not worry, very quickly in early November

Thanks for the info

[johnholmes]

-2.1 / -2.2 Should be the final figure, the second lowest since 1976 and just behind 2009

2009 showed -3.15 I thought?

[neige57]

2009 showed -3.15 I thought?

 

 

yes that's right

[radiohead]

This should now be the final OPI figure. -2.12

[Barry12]

This should now be the final OPI figure. -2.12

 

Below -2 very good

[Eugene]

Sorry if this has been repeated but has anybody got a list of Winter CET's that have been recorded with an OPI figure below -2?

[bryan629]

HI Eugene... is this what your looking for ?

 

[summer blizzard]

Has anybody averaged all the daily values?

[bobbydog]

Sorry if this has been repeated but has anybody got a list of Winter CET's that have been recorded with an OPI figure below -2?

Yep-

2009- OPI -3.15

CET- dec 3.1 jan 1.4 feb 2.8

and thats it....

[Blessed Weather]

Well IMO it’s been a very enjoyable month of “OPI watching†and great that we have ended with a promising Index of -2.12 from today’s GFS 12z run. I guess most of us are now hoping that the OPI will deliver on the expectations. It’s certainly going to be a good test, but with so many other indicators (such as SAI and eQBO) pointing in the same direction, you sort of feel that this winter should deliver?

Based on the 12z run here’s the Nth Hemisphere 500mb Geopot Height Anomalies for the 1^st to 31^st October 2014 compared with the Composite chart for the Top Ten most negative OPI years.
 

1st - 31st Oct 2014 Top Ten Composite
 

To my eyes this October’s anomalies look even better than the Composite with the Polar heights stronger and the Vortex lobes weaker – but maybe that’s to be expected if we have a “better than average†Index this year?

And the story shouldn’t stop here. If we look at today’s ECM and GFS Nth Hem profile out at 10^th Nov the Vortex is still struggling to form with heights over the Pole and lobes scattered. The early signs for the winter ahead continue to look promising!
 

ECM 10th Nov GFS 10th Nov

 

[bobbydog]

Has anybody averaged all the daily values?

I doubt it, there's not much point. If the average was close to the final value (if that's what you're wondering) it would be just coincidence

[radiohead]

Has anybody averaged all the daily values?

 

The daily values up until the end of the month are only used to provide a rough estimate of what the final number will be. There is no need to average them or look at them again since they contain GFS forecast data mixed with consolidated data, the final figure is just based on the actual consolidated data for the month.