OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

-2.08 on the 06z. Looks pretty much like it's gonna end up as a final figure around the -2.00 mark

What this means for winter?. Well no-one has a clue quite frankly lol.

[shaky]

What is the opi on the 12 run?or has it been ignored!!

[Ninman]

What is the opi on the 12 run?or has it been ignored!!

My mum used to say ignorance is bliss....I can't see it changing much from the last run tbh

[radiohead]

What is the opi on the 12 run?or has it been ignored!!

 

Should be updated around 7:40.

[karyo]

Should be updated around 7:40.

It seems they have ignored the 12z. The frequency of ignored runs has certainly gone up recently.

[shaky]

Maybe they've made their minds up that the opi is gona end up at -2 or below anyway regardless of tomorrow and fridays readings!!

[bobbydog]

It seems they have ignored the 12z. The frequency of ignored runs has certainly gone up recently.

Yes- it has.

Give it another couple of days and they'll probably ignore all of them....

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes- it has.

Give it another couple of days and they'll probably ignore all of them....

 

They certainly will.

[DAVID SNOW]

Yes- it has.

Give it another couple of days and they'll probably ignore all of them....

 

Now that's Spooky

[Timmytour]

The questions I have are simple. Firstly is the second half of October weighted more than the first half and if not then why not? Secondly, what happens if we see a gradual strengthening of the PV throughout the month, followed by a raging PV during November (but still with a sig -ve OPI figure)? Looks like we could be in this situation this year. Could it be this exact situation which leads to the small % of years where the OPI and winter AO don't correlate very well?

The view that I've come around to regarding this is that October lays the foundation for the PV and the OPI measures the strength of it. On a strong foundation, with a positive OPI, the foundations are strong and the structure of the PV remains basically sound despite perhaps losing the odd brick here and there. On a weak foundation, or a negative OPI, the structure can begin to look imposing in the following November but is vulnerable to collapsing like a tree in a strong wind.  Once the foundation is weak, we still need the "wind" to test how strong the structure is, but the opportunities to benefit from it's collapse improve.

Not scientific of course....just a mind illustration for my own benefit to try and explain exactly the points you raise  

[Fingers]

-2.19 from the 00z with just one days forecast left to confirm. Looking good!

[sebastiaan1973]

Looking forward to the forecast of the OPI creators!

[EML Network]

The view that I've come around to regarding this is that October lays the foundation for the PV and the OPI measures the strength of it. On a strong foundation, with a positive OPI, the foundations are strong and the structure of the PV remains basically sound despite perhaps losing the odd brick here and there. On a weak foundation, or a negative OPI, the structure can begin to look imposing in the following November but is vulnerable to collapsing like a tree in a strong wind.  Once the foundation is weak, we still need the "wind" to test how strong the structure is, but the opportunities to benefit from it's collapse improve.

Not scientific of course....just a mind illustration for my own benefit to try and explain exactly the points you raise

 

 

I think that is a good analogy and highlights the fact that the OPI index on it's own is not an indicator of either a mild or a cold Winter here in the UK, but it is likely to be a good indicator as to whether or not the Polar Vortex will become entrenched to the point where it is going to take a mammoth effort to dislodge or split it. 

 

This, OPI index then, might very well end up influencing other parts of the jigsaw and may be taken into account when looking at NAO forecasts, Height anomaly forecasts and LRF's. 

 

I hope the OPI is peer reviewed and accepted as together with other parts of the jigsaw we already have , it would give us all a little bit of extra confidence in knowing what might come to pass each Winter , but I doubt we'll ever get to the point where we can make a call more than 3-4 weeks out at the very most. 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

-2.23 on the 06z, looking good!

[easton888]

Looking very good. Don't expect anything exciting till January though!

[radiohead]

So we can safely say now the final OPI figure will be the second most negative since 1976, with only 2009 being lower.

The top 5 most negative OPI years were all followed by colder than average or severely cold CET winters.

And now, we wait...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

So we can safely say now the final OPI figure will be the second most negative since 1976, with only 2009 being lower.

The top 5 most negative OPI years were all followed by colder than average or severely cold CET winters.

And now, we wait...

wait........ For it to be probably the mildest winter on record which will blow the OPI formula right out of the water lol, and then its back to square 1.

[karyo]

Looking very good. Don't expect anything exciting till January though!

Why are you ruling out December?

[TobyT]

I think this is going to be a really interesting winter coming up and this will be a really good test for the opi, Good luck to the team, without this kind of research we would never make any advances in meteorology and our climate in general, to make comments like we will be back to square one if we end up with a mild winter are absurd as this is the whole point of the project, its how we learn.

[easton888]

Just trying to remain calm

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I think this is going to be a really interesting winter coming up and this will be a really good test for the opi, Good luck to the team, without this kind of research we would never make any advances in meteorology and our climate in general, to make comments like we will be back to square one if we end up with a mild winter are absurd as this is the whole point of the project, its how we learn.

It's called Irony :-)

Relax

Edited October 30, 2014 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[TobyT]

It's called Irony :-)

Relax

Well lets hope the OPI team get the irony ;-))

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Well lets hope the OPI team get the irony ;-))

I'm pretty sure they won't be bothered by it.

[karyo]

Just trying to remain calm

I am also trying but already failing! Lol

[Neilsouth]

wait........ For it to be probably the mildest winter on record which will blow the OPI formula right out of the water lol, and then its back to square 1.

 

And then another weather factor someone found which may or may not affect the weather ahead..

 

First it was Solar Index, Then Stratospheric Warming now it's the OPI