OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015

[KyleHenry]

I could be having a moment . I thought the guys from EC went over to assist with software issues

[bluearmy]

I could be having a moment . I thought the guys from EC went over to assist with software issues

 

The gfs upgrade due to go live 9/12. originally, it was planned to be earlier this year but it never happened.

[snowking]

I could be having a moment . I thought the guys from EC went over to assist with software issues

ECMWF have been working with NOAA on a consultancy basis, mostly around data assimilation to try and bring the GFS up to the standards of the European models. However, the results of this work are due in the 9th December upgrade.

SK

[karyo]

Just been racing through this thread and what a great thread it is,there is so much informative posts in here,thanks to all

 

i would just like to ask,is there a pattern index for every month or is it just October?

Only October as far as I know and this is because it is the month with the more relevance for the winter period.

[karyo]

one would suspect that the 12z would give a better OPI number than the 06z or the 00z. the height rise to our north is more in line with current ecm thinking.

Ironically, the OPI is stuck in the 6z! 

[Yarmy]

Ironically, the OPI is stuck in the 6z!

Probably best for everyone's sanity if it stays that way until November the 1st.

[throwoff]

The 06 and 18 are less respected for a reason!

 

Wait for the 00!

[karyo]

Probably best for everyone's sanity if it stays that way until November the 1st.

Lol. Actually, it is re-assuring to see every run come up with a negative score.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

 

 

 

 

From start to finish on this run that arctic HP does not budge and a PV that isn't getting organised, long may it continue.

 

BFTP

[mountain shadow]

Its hard to see how the OPI could be anything but negative by month end. The question is how negative.

[karyo]

-0.97 based on the 6z so another negative run!

[chionomaniac]

-0.97 based on the 6z so another negative run!

I see that yesterday's 12Z came in at -1.51.

 

Anyone spotted the trend of the 6Z to raise the OPI - only for it to decrease again by the 12Z. Is that evidence that the 06ZGFS set up is indeed more 'zonal'?

[Interitus]

Well on the 10th the 06z was -3.91 but 12z was -1.13

[chionomaniac]

Well on the 10th the 06z was -3.91 but 12z was -1.13

Have you kept all the scores Interitus - because it would be interesting to see the others to compare?

[Interitus]

No unfortunately not, only spotted this thread a few days ago. Got 12 different readings so far, with all the accompanying values.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The thing is we can safely say the first half of the month is definitely gonna be a negative value , I don't think there has been one day with a positive reading ? So we need some big + values now to drive it into positive territory .

The winter is already looking loads better than last year .

[karyo]

The thing is we can safely say the first half of the month is definitely gonna be a negative value , I don't think there has been one day with a positive reading ? So we need some big + values now to drive it into positive territory .

The winter is already looking loads better than last year .

Agreed but it will be safer for us coldies if we end the month with an index below -1 or even better -2 Edited October 14, 2014 by karyo

[ukpaul]

Now -1.86 after the 12z.

[shaky]

Now -1.86 after the 12z.

brilliant!!big jump into the negatives there compared to the 06z!!!!after each passing day of this month its becoming pretty clear that this month is gona end up in the negative territory!!

[SMU]

Things bobbling along nicely - currently at the high -1's, & the projected landing zone 'cone' just beginning to start to refine at the edges. another 5 days to start making predictive forecasts, however the cone has moved slightly south over the last few days from -0.5 >> -1 down to -1 >> -2.............

 

good trends.....

 

S

Edited October 14, 2014 by Steve Murr

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Steve

Pole heights still remain and projected to remain in good shape don't they? 

 

BFTP

[SMU]

Steve

Pole heights still remain and projected to remain in good shape don't they? 

 

BFTP

 

yes mate.

 

Just because there in no 'yellow's as such on the charts, the anomaly is still quite significant, all be it slightly moderated from the start of the month...

 

S

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

yes mate.

 

Just because there in no 'yellow's as such on the charts, the anomaly is still quite significant, all be it slightly moderated from the start of the month...

 

S

Agreed, with the anticipated build up/strengthening of the PV, slight moderation is pretty darn ok.  Incredible snow build up in Siberia.....

 

BFTP

Edited October 14, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[SMU]

A fairly substantial cover to the NE as well at the end of next week..........

 

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/192_35.gif

 

At the halfway point of the month ( all but ) the rolling index is -1.94 - assuming it arrives around 1.95 for the month half these are the second half values required to arrive at a fixed number.

 

1.5 = +4.95 daily

1 =    +3.95 daily

0.5=  +2.95 daily

0 =     +1.95 daily

-1=     -0.05 daily

-1.5=  -1.05 daily

-2=     -2.05 daily

 

as said the landing zone is certainly expected to be homing in on -1.5

 

S

Edited October 14, 2014 by Steve Murr

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A fairly substantial cover to the NE as well at the end of next week..........

 

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/192_35.gif

Let's 'Av it'.  This will be a very interesting winter if trends continue.....a few theories will be tested

 

BFTP