Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14

[Duane S.]

Maybe I did it quick.. I don't think so as my orange lines are identical to the chart below....

 

 

Heres probably the most famous cross polar flow showing the type of jet it delivered......

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-12-31-0-5.png

 

S

 

Which of course gave us this outrageous chart...

[knocker]

Would an animation of the ECM 500mb anomalies help to display the points being looked at?

Unfortunately, free sites dont have the jet stream levels.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014102512/ecmwf_z500a_nhem.html

 

If I'm reading this correctly yes you could use that. The ECM midday doesn't show it very well at the 200mb level as it has a straightforward jet. But looking at this chart if the upper polar low was split and lying in a more west/east orientation you could well have that counter polar wind flow although it's not indicated as local jet on this chart. In fact you could say it has anyway.  Again that's if I'm reading this correctly.

Edited October 25, 2014 by knocker

[bluearmy]

Much too early to be excited about current output unless you are a believer in repeating patterns.

My eye is taken by the way that modelling of the vortex making its way from the Asian side to the Canadian is not sustained. Those who have plumped for a cold winter ahead are pointing at strong heights developing over East canda/Greenland.

Output like yesterday's ECM 12z op is a direct result of the weak and disorganised p/v we currently have.

[Barry12]

The 00z GFS has even more blocking!

144hrs:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1

16&hrs:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0&carte=1

Would also be a cold bonfire night, with -4 uppers for Scotland

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=240&code=0&mode=1&carte=1

Day 10 on the ECM is very interesting also:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Edited October 26, 2014 by Barry95

[knocker]

Nothing static about this mornings GEFS anomaly charts. The T168 has very defined features. A build up of heights Canada/Greeland. trough eastern seaboard and ridge mid Atlantic. A trough Pole south to the UK and another ridge to the east. Classic meridional  pattern with a depression N. Scotland.

 

By T240 everything moves east. Slackening of the heights Canada./Greenland, trough now south of Greenland mid Atlantic and the ridge orientated SW/NE over the UK and the Pole trough over Scandinavia. Surface analysis ridge over the UK

 

By T312 a more zonal flow with the trough orientated NE/SW in eastern Atlantic and the warmer air skirting southern Britain over northern Europe. Generally then low pressure Atlantic with HP pushing up from the SE.

 

To sum up. A very long winded way of saying unsettled with passages of wet and windy weather, could be mainly confined to the north, interspersed with the odd ridge.

 

Temps above average.

 

 

[IDO]

No real change this morning just further confirmation we are headed for a less meridional NH pattern, especially upstream, as the heights over the US flatten. The GFS op gives us a FI variation with a SW to NE jet:

 

 

However looking at the GEFS not one other member supports that. The mean for the same time highlights this: 

 

GEM at D10:   This ties in with the GEFS mean.

 

ECM at D9:   D10: 

 

Probably the usual D9-10 chart from the ECM op, over amplifying the pattern. We will have to watch out for that in the Winter.

 

The NOAA 8-14 from last night highlighting the flatter pattern and the more unsettled flow for the UK:  

 

CFS for November continues with its theme: 

 

For the south above average temps week 1 and slightly below week 2: 

 

Rainfall for the next 8 days as we head into the more westerly flow, will increase for most, but the NW still look to have more than their fair share:

 

 

Normal seasonal weather being modelled at the moment.

[Duane S.]

ECM going against the grain towards the end of the 00z run again and as I'm Dreaming says above, is probably up to its old tricks of over amplification as it shoots up a bout of WAA from the Azores High and gives up a rather dreamy looking chart that would more than just raise a few eyebrows if we were deeper into winter. Not much, if any, support by the GFS op or GEFS members for that, although some are showing lower pressure sat in Central Europe around the 10d mark

Edited October 26, 2014 by s4lancia

[Gibby]

Sorry for no report yesterday. I'm having problems at my website server so can only provide a link to website for my report currently. Hopefully resolved tomorrow. Anyway my report can be viewed here.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

[Frosty.]

I think all the coldies on here will want to see much more of this in the weeks ahead with some sort of height rises to the nw and lowering heights to the ne, the Gfs 00z op run tries to pull the trigger on a few occasions and draw arctic air south and i'm hoping this will become a growing trend in the weeks ahead. The main theme of this run is mild & unsettled with strong winds at times and a sw / ne aligned jet but there is some interest for coldies too.

Edited October 26, 2014 by Frosty.

[knocker]

There is basically no consistent agreement between the D10 anomalies at the moment (yesterdays NOAA) and until there is a positive movement in this direction it remains very speculative. Anyway just to round up the ECM is having none of the ridge and plumps for the trough and cooler air over the whole of the eastern Atlantic. Weakish heights N. America and a zonal flow.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

I think all the coldies on here will want to see much more of this in the weeks ahead with some sort of height rises to the nw and lowering heights to the ne, the Gfs 00z op run tries to pull the trigger on a few occasions and draw arctic air south and i'm hoping this will become a growing trend in the weeks ahead. The main theme of this run is mild & unsettled with strong winds at times and a sw / ne aligned jet but there is some interest for coldies too.

To be honest this is an evolving situation but things are becoming more interesting each day.

with heights trying to get a foot hold.

also notice there are above and below average temps starting to show more and more.

id be inclined to expect some pretty chilly weather becoming more common to the north.

 

as suggested the south has its warm days but even here things starting to return to a more normal level into nov.

 

the jet modelling shows in the later stages a move southerly route not a huge amount but in the right direction.

 

and most of all the pv being held back away from last years location.

 

there is a clear indication that nearly all model outputs are toying with bits and bobs of blocking around the greenland area and the canadian area all in all its becoming far more interesting.

[knocker]

To be honest this is an evolving situation but things are becoming more interesting each day.

with heights trying to get a foot hold.

also notice there are above and below average temps starting to show more and more.

id be inclined to expect some pretty chilly weather becoming more common to the north.

 

as suggested the south has its warm days but even here things starting to return to a more normal level into nov.

 

the jet modelling shows in the later stages a move southerly route not a huge amount but in the right direction.

 

and most of all the pv being held back away from last years location.

 

there is a clear indication that nearly all model outputs are toying with bits and bobs of blocking around the greenland area and the canadian area all in all its becoming far more interesting.

 

If you would be so kind what are the clear indications of blocking as they have passed me by?  Maybe I've noticed the bobs and not the bits.

Edited October 26, 2014 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

If you would be so kind what are the clear indications of blocking as they have passed me by?  Maybe I've noticed the bobs and not the bits.

There might be a chance of a northerly in week 2 if higher than normal heights over Greenland could be sustained, but that is a big if to be honest.

ECM ens are not even interested in this at this given time.

[Frosty.]

The later stages of the Ecm 00z op run show an increasingly pretty picture being painted of the N Hemisphere with the jet digging further south and cold unsettled conditions replacing the mild mush, would be nice to see beyond T+240 hours with that arctic surge to the west pushing east towards the uk.

 

By the end of this run it looks cold enough for snow on northern high ground..hopefully just a taste of things to come during nov / dec / jan & feb. :- )

Edited October 26, 2014 by Frosty.

[IDO]

The 3 main means at D10 show a similar setup:

 

GEM:   GEFS:  ECM: 

 

As the ECM mean suggests there is little support for the ECM op at D9-10 (no surprise there). Interesting that both the GFS op and ECM op look like outliers compared to their means (at various times). The main difference from the means is the intensity of the zonal flow and the GFS is slower, allowing the potential for short wave ridging for drier interludes for the south.

 

The CET is +1.2c and I cannot see that falling for the rest of October so another milder than average month. The uppers for the next week are very mild...

 

 ...before returning to around average in week 2.

[Frosty.]

I would be happy to see the N Hemisphere looking like this during early november, mild mush replaced by colder and increasingly wintry weather with the PFJ heading for n.africa..hopefully the Ecm 00z op run is on the right track     

Edited October 26, 2014 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

This coming week does look mild, the only day which could be close to average CET wise is Wednesday as a cold front clears with high pressure building back in.

There is a chance of a northerly into week 2, though it is remote. We need to keep watching the Greenland area to see if the wedge of higher heights can be sustained to allow colder air to sink south into NW Europe.

Latest GFS coming out now shows the area of interest.

Certainly a chance on offer from the 06z come day 8

 

Shame it's the 06z GFS though

Edited October 26, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[shaky]

What a greenland high and straight northerly flow heading for the UK. ..........

[Frosty.]

The message from the Gfs 06z op run is..mild mush, you are the weakest link.. .Goodbye,,, or sod off mild mush, you have been evicted, please leave the Big Brother house

 

Throughout low res the 6z reloads a much colder pattern from the north with regular arctic incursions digging well south, really this run is looking fantastic as we head into early / mid nov potentially

Edited October 26, 2014 by Frosty.

[SMU]

If you would be so kind what are the clear indications of blocking as they have passed me by?  Maybe I've noticed the bobs and not the bits.

 

Hi Knocker, its because you mainly follow the GFS & its ensembles- which are as ever Pony Tony.

 

Following the OPI thread & knowing the GFS weakness for being over progressive it will continue to move everything east because that's its nature.

Of note the 06z has now come into Line with the ECM.....

 

Don't put all your eggs in the GFS basket-

 

 

That said I am certainly less comfortable with the ECM after last years mediocre performance so 100% this year there will be a caveat when viewing the model....

 

Back to the GFS though-

 

From THIS:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014102500-0-192.png?0

 

to THIS in 5 runs.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014102606/gfsnh-0-168.png?6

 

A fairly solid NAO - which I hinted at last night.....

 

S

Edited October 26, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Cloud 10]

It's nice to be talking about cross-polar flows,and the 06z gfs is just a slight variation on the general theme from various op runs and ensembles over the last few days.

 

 

Looks like the roller-coaster may be starting early this year...

[Ali1977]

Be interesting to see if the GEFS follow the GFS with the northerly at day 8. -4c uppers covering much of the UK would surely mean the first hill snow in England and Wales is possible.

[bluearmy]

On the subject of repeating patterns, low res GFS in NH profile shows a classic winter pattern to deliver snow to nw Europe. (If you take into account that in a months time, the changing wavelengths will likely drop the jet further south. ). Note that strong blocking is not required around Greenland to send the depressions se. Often, it's the less obvious blocking that achieves this.

[heath]

Many thanks to Mr Murr for his commentary on the ECM last night.  As a complete novice I was pleased that I could therefore track the move of the GFS 06z (weaker and brief cross polar) towards the ECM before reading comments on here!  Best guess would be that the ECM will next move towards the GFS, I suppose. 

[legritter]

Certainly looks good if your looking for some action weather ,Current charts showing some good possibilitys for later in its output ,and of course interesting now with colder air to our north and northwest ,mild generally for britain hense the intense rain further north which could give some amazing totals come late mon/tuesday .But a real tease for us cold weather fans ,but HEY plenty of winter weeks to come and we all know what Mother nature is capable of ,plenty going on and i expect more posters to appear at the bottom of our forum pretty soon .once again looking across the Globe at weather forums we on Net weather have a brilliant team of members [old soldiers ] and New ones ,sit back crack open a Stella    get out the prozack, the DAM 528 Train hopefully is on its way ,cheers .