Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14

[Polar Maritime]

Yes some very interesting cold synoptic's showing on the 6z, As Nick stresses keep an open mind, The Models continue to be very skitty. Very interesting Model watching as the NH goes through some big changes, With the PV continuing to be very disruptive as we enter the last Month of Autumn.

 

Edited October 31, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Mucka]

This is the first real test of the new GFS (currently running Parallel) against ECM and to a lesser extent UKMO with the parallel now going for the Atlantic driven option with low pressure pushing across the UK and into Scandinavia while ECM has jet forced North and builds heights over the same region.

 

 

This may help us later in the winter where a similar synoptic and differences between the models occur. 

 

The parallel goes for a repeating pattern in FI with a deep trough and Atlantic ridge but it should be noted it had a more significant ridge and amplified pattern modelled for the period coming up so it may well flatten the FI pattern in a similar manner. Here is how it was modelling 3 Nov to how it is modelling it now.

 

 

So for those who are interested as to how the new GFS might perform when it officially comes online end of Nov, now (with possible mid latitude blocking V temp ridge and lack of model convergence) is a good time to analyse it as it runs in parallel to the current GFS model.

[Purga]

On the face of it a nice fantasy chart but that's all it is

 

I don't think the 'Polar Vortex' has even begun to get it's act together yet it's far too early

Edited October 31, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove off topic wind-up content.

[BlueHedgehog074]

If it's okay with the mods, going to lock this now while it's quite quiet and open up a new Model Thread for the upcoming new month (and also ready for the 12Z runs). Will be amusing to see whether the GFS can continue with some strong amplification to our West/North-West. Or whether it's just a 'false alarm'.