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Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Morning all, GFS & ECMWF Continue the cool/wet and unsettled theme through-out the run, With Lows driving in of the Atlantic on a pretty strong Jet Stream over, Or just South of the UK.

 

gfsnh-0-108.png?0gfsnh-0-288.png?0gfsnh-5-264.png?0

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GFS 00z op run shows the uk within an expanding bubble of low pressure through next week with bands of stronger winds and rain occasionally pushing north and east across the uk but there are some suckers gaps of fine weather between the rain and showers so there will be spells of sunshine too but don't rely on it lasting. Next week also looks on the chilly side compared to the warmth of this autumn so far, temperatures close to where they should be during early / mid october with the northwest of the uk a little below average and the south / southeast a little above. The overall theme of this run is unsettled but during low res there are brief flat atlantic ridges separating us from the next vigorous depression, indeed the atlantic looks very fired up through low res and as the euro high becomes stronger by the end of the run, the uk is in a zone of gale force sw'ly winds with very tight isobars, very moist and mild tropical air by then with lots of rain for the uk.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yes quite a change for the coming week PM,underway now even in the south as the cold front and rain comes through today.

Much cooler air following so feeling a lot different down here compared to recent weeks.

A look at the fax out towards mid-week shows the cyclonic pattern over us.

 

post-2026-0-75828400-1412407296_thumb.gi

 

it looks like we are now sliding towards a much more seasonal Atlantic profile with bands of rain and showers for the next week and beyond with temperatures much closer to normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST TEXT ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY OCTOBER 4TH 2014.

 

NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH 08:00

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An active cold front will clear East out of Britain today followed by a ridge of High pressure over the South later. Later still sees a deep Low move SE towards Western Britain with a strengthening SW flow later tomorrow.

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  All areas look like being unsettled and windy with rain at times in cool conditions. Possibly a little drier and less cool in the SE later.

 

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The change in positioning of the Jet flow is currently under way. It will settle blowing strongly across the Atlantic towards Southern England and the English Channel over the next week or so with somewhat more variability shown in week 2 though generally maintaining a latitude well South of recent levels, certainly over the Atlantic and NW Europe.

 

GFS The GFS operational today shows a deep Low move down from the NW towards a point NW of ireland and then moves slowly NE late next week filling slowly. This will deliver quite a few days of windy and unsettled weather with spells of rain and showers for all. A quieter interlude then develops though still rather unsettled but with lighter winds bext weekend before Week 2 sees a return to wet and windy conditions in strong SW winds across the UK with deep Low pressure anchored to the NW.

 

THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are broadly similar with much unsettled weather over the next few weeks. It does show a different scenario in Week 2 in that Low pressure is further South over the Atlantic later with a large and warm High pressure over Eastern Europe pumping some of that warm air North across Britain late in the period with most of the rainfall by then across the West.

 

UKMO UKMO this morning has deep Low pressure near Western Ireland on Wednesday gradually transferring NE over the following 48 hours. This means that the weather across the UK will be very unsettled and wet at times with spells of rain and showers in strong winds too, all gradually becoming less pronounced towards the end of the week as the Low fills and moves away to the NE.

 

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts show a complex zone of Low pressure developing just to the West of the UK next week. This is shown to be slow moving and throwing troughs of Low pressure East and NE across the UK regularly in cool and often blustery weather with showers and longer spells of rain for all areas, the latter most likely towards the South.

 

GEM The GEM operational looks very Autumnal this morning with the deep Low pressure next week very slowly drifting North late in the week but only at the expense of a new centre moving in to replace it to maintain a Low complex close to the North with Westerly winds and rain and showers for all at times throughout the run.

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is also slow to remove Low pressure away from the UK later next week with the centre still over Scotland quite late next week with further Low pressure out in the Atlantic and a trough to the SW keeping the unsettled theme going beyond the period albeit not quite as windy as early next week.

 

ECM The ECM operational maintains the basic theme of all other output in bringing a deep Low down towards and over the West of the UK next week with rain and wind at times for all. With the thrust of Low pressure only slowly edging away North later and further Low pressure up to the NW driving further strong SW winds and rain across the UK late in the run there is little respite from the unsettled period apart from the thrust of the heaviest rain reverting towards the North and West later with some warmer winds affecting the South and East later.

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards better weather in week 2 shown in yesterdays 00zs has been reversed somewhat this morning.

 

MY THOUGHTS  We are currently entering the first spell of seriously Autumnal weather across the UK this season as Low pressure becomes the driving force to the weather over the next couple of weeks. In the short term a deep Low looks very likely to be close to Western and Northern Britain for much of next week with plenty of rain and showers for all in blustery and much cooler conditions than of late. Most output then only shows slow moderation in these conditions as the Low fills and drifts slowly away North or NE. This still appears to leave an unstable if lighter Westerly flow with further rain in places before further Atlantic Low pressure rolls over from the West, probably on a slightly more Northern aspect bringing the heaviest rain and strongest winds to more Northern and NW areas with the South and East experiencing a chance at least of something a little drier and less cool as milder SW winds set up. The Jet Stream though seems to heave ratcheted up a copuple of gears over recent runs and this throws the risk of some active Low pressure areas at times throughout the next few weeks with the exception of a temporary reduction in strength next weekend. With High pressure sending some very warm air at times across Europe in the second week and the comparative cool Autumn air to the NW of Britain a spell of notably wet and windy weather in Week 2 looks possible over the higher ground of the North and West as the warm South or SW flow over the UK engages with the cooler air to the NW and gives rise to an active waving frontal zone somewhere over the UK. Something to watch for certain in week 2. However, having said all of this despite temperatures much lower than of late there is no distinctly cold weather on offer from the models today and it may well be that the South and East see above average temperatures return again if the moist SW or South flow develops in week 2 as hinted at this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Not too unsettled on GFS for the SE as total rainfall suggests.

 

Total after 3 days: post-14819-0-89631200-1412407962_thumb.g After 8 days: post-14819-0-59478200-1412407978_thumb.g

 

Still looking like a lull for 5-7 days after the LP moves away Tuesday/Wednesday.

 

The GEFS rainfall mean has just nominal amounts from D5 for London:  post-14819-0-90953100-1412408071_thumb.g

 

Last night's 8-14 day now trending the surface low anomaly more to the west with the UK in the flow between lower and higher heights (though low confidence mentioned in the prognostic discussion):

 

post-14819-0-84481200-1412408302_thumb.g  Difficult to know the surface conditions for a setup like this at this range.

 

ECM at D9 continues it's flip flopping and now has a LP system for the South: post-14819-0-86347200-1412408986_thumb.p

 

Though GEM at D9: post-14819-0-23626000-1412409053_thumb.p  and GFS at D9: post-14819-0-73547500-1412409079_thumb.p

 

Do indicate that the models remain uncertain re surface conditions around that time scale so its a case of take your pick. 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Monday morning is going to be tricky for far N/W of Scotland & Irish Sea, With Storm Force winds effecting the Isles.. 

 

nmmuk-2-50-0.png?04-07nmmuk-3-49-0.png?04-07

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Ensemble means from GFS,ECM and GEM looking very seasonal as we head towards mid-October with the Atlantic trough running the show,so bouts of wind and rain likely with temperatures around average.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

This is what I like about early / mid october...the Gfs 06z op run shows cold 528 dam thicknesses pushing south towards scotland and we also have the warm 564 dam pushing north towards southern england, so on the one hand the far north could have snow showers on high ground and the south of england could end up having a mid october BBQ. There is a nice end to this run but overall the high res is very unsettled with lots of strong winds and rain, especially for the north then turning colder in the north with night frosts and a risk of snow on the highest hills / mountains of scotland.

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

Monday morning is going to be tricky for far N/W of Scotland & Irish Sea, With Storm Force winds effecting the Isles.. 

 

nmmuk-2-50-0.png?04-07nmmuk-3-49-0.png?04-07

agree, a thoroughly shocking night for the western coastal regions ahead of a potent front , gales and heavy rain. 

 

post-18134-0-74563100-1412438175_thumb.p

 

then a washout monday for most , wet and windy sums it up.. 

 

post-18134-0-35922900-1412438334_thumb.ppost-18134-0-47765000-1412438525_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

Wow... what an image,

 

post-18134-0-16149700-1412441533.jpeg

 

 

shows the cold front clearing the east coast now... look out to the atlantic though...polar maritime against tropical maritme  (cold versus warm) love the way it shows exactly where the jet stream is flowing , ( the little gap between low and high)   where the two collide will make it very wet and windy , Ireland and West coast regions look likely targets, the gfs is showing a pretty potent front developing from sunday into monday for the uk , a very wet and windy scenario. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

GFS is showing an unsettled spell of weather for most of it's run. Temps range from low to mid teens for the first part of next week, but recover to mid- high teens (in the South) as the week progresses.

 

Rain is never far away though, and stay's generally unsettled the further North you go.

 

ukmaxtemp.pngukprec.png

 

ukmaxtemp.pngukprec.png

 

ukmaxtemp.pngukprec.png

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Really no change in the output, traditional autumn weather at last from both ecm and gfs......

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z op run is very unsettled throughout, especially further north, just a weak flat atlantic ridge pushing across the south at the end of next week bringing brief respite before more low pressure piles in from the atlantic, an atlantic which is cranking up during next week. It's a very autumnal pattern with wet & windy spells and occasionally brighter with blustery showers, temperatures much closer to the seasonal average, ranging between just below average in the north / nw and just above in the SE at times. The PFJ is sometimes digging much further south but is then forced north again as pressure rises across mainland europe but the uk is for the most part, a very unsettled zone with lots of rain and sometimes strong winds during the next 10 days and probably beyond, the south / se having the best of any drier, brighter and milder conditions between bouts of unsettled weather.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Last nights anomalies. The GFS is the 18z run.

 

In the ten day time frame there is a reasonable agreement with perhaps a slight exception with the ECM. HP eastern Atlantic, large area of LP mid Atlantic, with HP to the east and south east. The ecm pushes this further NE and thus impacting on the UK. Both have a jet tending towards the zonal with perhaps the GFS pushed a tad further south by the cold air. On the surface we have a mid and eastern Atlantic dominated by LP bringing some unsettled and probably some nasty weather to the UK with perhaps the ECM including the possibility of the southern part of the UK being exempt.

 

In the later time frame the ridge in the east weakens and the HP to the east spreads west but given the fluidity of the Atlantic the chances of this being transitory remain high but given the time frame another few runs under the belt are a necessity.

 

 

 

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

GFS and ECM trying to maintain higher heights over Greenland this morning.

GFS has a slack northerly

gfs-0-192.png?0

Showers and night time frosts would be the order of the day here.

 

ECM

ECM1-192.GIF?05-12

The initial push from the north is cut off in this run

 

UKMO looks reasonable for a northerly at day 6

UW144-21.GIF

 

On the other hand the GEM goes for a more standard westerly type set up

gem-0-192.png?00

 

So a lot of uncertainty for week 2, but signs that heights over Greenland might last longer than first anticipated.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

I have been watching the GEFS over the last few runs and the trend has been to build heights during the lull from  the meridional flow. Both the GFS op and Control are keener this morning. So a slack pattern after the low starts retreating from the mid-week.

 

D5: post-14819-0-47722400-1412489071_thumb.p  D10: post-14819-0-62140300-1412489084_thumb.p

 

Mainly showers for E/SE/S in that period though the W/NW wetter.

 

GFS continues the theme that has been strong in the GEFS for a few days now of heights building from D12:

 

 post-14819-0-32190100-1412489187_thumb.p  post-14819-0-23781400-1412489201_thumb.p

 

The London GEFS are still not conclusive this is the way forward, though a small move in that direction from the 0z: post-14819-0-77151000-1412489308_thumb.g

 

Looking a 50:50 split now whether we see higher or lower pressure from mid-month (previously only 33% higher on GEFS).

 

Before that, next week recovering well after the wet and windy Monday/Tuesday with temps returning to average (or above) in the south: post-14819-0-94565800-1412489544_thumb.g

 

Some showers but quite reasonable for early/mid October. Certainly no sign of a full Autumnal onslaught. However GEM seems determined to bring Autumn on full throttle from around D8-9:

 

post-14819-0-33086900-1412489709_thumb.p

 

ECM moving towards the GFS more meridional flow than the zonal GEM on the 0z, a flip from last night, so at D10: post-14819-0-00116500-1412492240_thumb.g

 

And of course if a trough/ridge develops, where they sit will determine if the whole of the UK gets a drier period. So a bit of uncertainty remains and a matter of wait and see how this chops and changes.

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH 2014.

 

NEXT UPDATE MONDAY OCTOBER 6TH 08:00

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A ridge of High pressure will move away East out of Southern England with a strengthening Southerly flow ahead of an active cold and occluded front East across the UK tonight and tomorrow.

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  All areas look like being unsettled and windy with rain at times in cool conditions. Possibly a little drier and less cool in places later.

 

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream will remain in it's new Southern location near Southern England through this week before becoming more broken and ill defined on this side of the Atlantic through Week 2 though still with the strongest section in the West Atlantic heading towards quite Southerly latitudes.

 

GFS The GFS operational today shows a deep Low moving down from the NW to a point just to the west of Ireland and then drifting it slowly NE later in the week but maintaining a trough back across the UK with increasingly cold air by next weekend. It then shows pressure gently recovering through Week 2 especially towards the North and East while SE winds and troughs affect Southern and Western Britain for a time. High pressure is then shown to centre near Northern Britain at the end of the run with cool, Autumnal and possibly mist conditions developing for many

.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are broadly similar in theme with this weeks Low being replaced by High pressure over the UK through the start of Week 2 before strong SE winds and rain in association with deep Low pressure to the SW brings a return to wet and windy conditions late in the period.

 

UKMO UKMO this morning has deep Low pressure near Northern Ireland on Thursday moving steadily away NE and filling but maintaining a broad and open trough over the UK with cool and showery weather continuing as a result leading into the weekend.

 

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts show a complex zone of Low pressure well in control of the weather over the UK through most of this week. The centre just to the West of the UK is shown to throw frequent troughs East across the UK with spells of wind, rain and showers for all through all weekdays in rather cool conditions overall.

 

GEM The GEM operational today looks like staying very unsettled over the next 10 days with rain and strong winds featuring regularly as this weeks Low pressure moves away NE next weekend and becomes replaced by a strong Westerly flow over the Atlantic in association with more deep Low pressure near NW Britain at the start of week 2.

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is also slow to remove Low pressure away from the UK later in the week finally bringing a brief ridge of High pressure across over next weekend with reducing amounts of showers as it does. Temperatures overall are shown close to or a little below the average. 

 

ECM The ECM operational is rather similar to GEM this morning in not supporting much of a ridge following this weeks Low. Instead it rolls in more deep Low pressure across the Atlantic with more gales and rain affecting all areas at the start of the second week.

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Mixed messages remain the trend between the models today with the split between more mobile, windy and wet weather in week 2 challenged by quieter Anticyclonc conditions for a time by some other output.

 

MY THOUGHTS  Rather mixed output this morning in the longer term though we have 100% agreement on the course of events this week with a deep Low close to Western England early in the week tracking slowly NE later and filling while maintaining showers and longer spells of rain across the UK reducing somewhat by next weekend. There will be some strong winds at times especially near the coasts but these should die down later as some rather cool air filters down from the North. This is where the models differ with GFS in particular illustrating a shift towards High pressure and calmer Autumnal weather at least for a time before Low pressure to the SW becomes influential by the end of it's run. GEM and ECM though show a much more disturbed pattern being maintained through Week 2 as more deep Low pressure and attendant strong winds run in from the West to keep wind and rain very much a feature out to the end of the run. Which is right is hard to say at the moment but my money would be towards the thoughts of ECM as very cold air sliding South across the Norwegian Sea next weekend is likely to engage with milder Atlantic air setting up a new surge of deep Low pressure and spells of rain at times through the following week as we dip deeper into Autumn.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Whilst GFS is going for a northerly around this time next week ECM and its ensemble keeps us in a west or south westerly flow, things may settle down for a short time especially in the south before the next low pressure system sweeps in from the west

 

EDU1-120.GIF?05-12EDU1-144.GIF?05-12EDU1-168.GIF?05-12EDU1-192.GIF?05-12EDU1-216.GIF?05-12EDU1-240.GIF?05-12

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Broad agreement between the GFS and ECM for next weekend although the position of the low moving across the UK and encroaching ridge has to be settled. So probably starting off pretty grotty with a slow improvement and temps just below average.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Although the GEM looked the odd one out this morning, looking at its Control, this was far closer to the GFS op at D10: 

 

post-14819-0-43952300-1412504530_thumb.p  The mean highlights the shift this morning to an East Atlantic trough: post-14819-0-62404200-1412504579_thumb.p

 

The GFS op 06z keeps up this trend but with the trough slightly further east; at D12: post-14819-0-63561800-1412505568_thumb.p

 

It coincides with a warm upper flow and high SSTs so potential for some very active fronts:

 

post-14819-0-42312200-1412505302_thumb.p  post-14819-0-21563900-1412505313_thumb.p

 

Long way out and will change but a perfect storm for very heavy rain for the south if that came off. Again way out in FI higher pressure the trend for late October:

 

post-14819-0-62233900-1412505421_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

That front yesterday brought about 7mm of rain in the SE as it drove through in 3-4 hours. Overall Saturday wasn't too bad, mild in the morning and fresher in the afternoon under clear skies. Looks like tomorrow's front will also not amount too much in the E/SE (5-10mm):

 

Accumulated: post-14819-0-29781200-1412510743_thumb.p  Breezy but the wind from a friendly direction: post-14819-0-05279700-1412510927_thumb.p

 

Today another pleasant day under clear skies, so this region not really entering into the Autumn spirit just yet...

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

I am sure there will be some postings later, on how Autumnal the GFS op is,and it is! I do think GFS has had one of those runs. The pressure graph highlights how much both the op and control have skewed away from the mean:

post-14819-0-42215300-1412534213_thumb.g

Conversely the GEFS have taken another step towards a pressure build after D10 if you ignore the hi-res runs. For D12 and D14 means the following are not too bad:

post-14819-0-44374400-1412534340_thumb.p post-14819-0-23745000-1412534363_thumb.p

The GEM is more like the 0z mean tonight with a slack flow from late next week and the UK caught between the trough and higher heights. On this run too close for comfort and probably wet for the north and a close call for the south in it's latter stages.

D8: post-14819-0-70843000-1412534595_thumb.p D10: post-14819-0-74768100-1412534614_thumb.p

ECM showing improvement from the south initially after D4.

D5: post-14819-0-85029600-1412534706_thumb.g D8: post-14819-0-02598400-1412534718_thumb.g

A slack flow but some unseasonably cold uppers into Scotland: post-14819-0-74316100-1412534800_thumb.g

D9 from ECM: post-14819-0-15760800-1412535009_thumb.g

All the models are showing different outcomes after D5, so there is great uncertainty at D8-10 as how that next bout of Atlantic energy is dealt with, as it heads in our general direction. :cc_confused:

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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