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Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2014/2015: The Refreeze


BornFromTheVoid

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Posted
  • Location: Vale of Belvoir
  • Location: Vale of Belvoir

.. it is for the time of year .. I was just looking at the same recovery on Cryosphere Today .. both Hudson and Barents have made remarkable recoveries' To see the reversal of nearly 30 years of delaying freezing in the Hudson must be a surprise to many !'And a delight too :)

The statement says "ice growth which didn't exist in 2006". Since it freezes every year it obviously did exist in 2006.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think KL confuses himself at times but at least it allows the readership a glimpse at his mastery of all things climate? If we think back 2006 was a poor ice year, just so close to 07' that it gets lost in all the excitement over the losses that year? 

 

Just think back to the end of this season, where 06' was in the running as an analogue for this years losses, and you might see just what a poor year it was compared to the 80's 'average'?

 

Had we not encountered the 'Perfect melt storm' synoptics in 07' then 06' would have served as a way marker to the lows of the past years as ice levels trended lower.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Two points -

1) Keith was referring to the state of the ice at this point in the year of 2006. To not infer this shows how desperate or unknowledgible the respondant are. To suggest he is 'confused in his views' is just an outright slur and not worthy coming from a normally balanced individual.

2) At least Keith is comparing to recent data and is trying to pick out a similar year. We all accept that ice has diminished since the 70's. It is what has happened in the last 10-20 years we should be focussing on. 

The curent era should be the starting point for the current climate, and yes I do understand that includes years like 2007 and accept it. Are you suggesting that the melt year 2014 -2015 will be the same as the melt year 2006 - 2007?

MIA

Edited by Paul
Removed un-needed name calling
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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

 

Good post, but they did say Arctic would be ice free by 2013 so do have to change some of the lines every now and then.

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Good post, but they did say Arctic would be ice free by 2013 so do have to change some of the lines every now and then.

 

Who said this? I take it 'They' means that it was a group of Arctic scientists and i , for the life of me, cannot recall such a statement?

 

I do recall one scientist who said we might be 'ice free by 2016.... plus or minus 3 years' though? I also recall that some media outlet reproduced this prediction but nobody said that we 'would' be ice free by 2013???

 

As it is the earliest the next 'perfect melt storm' could arrive is in 2017 ( well before the 2019 deadline) so I personally won't be being premature in calling the persons prediction as 'busted' until Sept 2019?

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Who said this? I take it 'They' means that it was a group of Arctic scientists and i , for the life of me, cannot recall such a statement?

 

I do recall one scientist who said we might be 'ice free by 2016.... plus or minus 3 years' though? I also recall that some media outlet reproduced this prediction but nobody said that we 'would' be ice free by 2013???

 

As it is the earliest the next 'perfect melt storm' could arrive is in 2017 ( well before the 2019 deadline) so I personally won't be being premature in calling the persons prediction as 'busted' until Sept 2019?

 

I'm sure if I had the time to look I could find a few after all you yourself said just that in 2007...

 

"Where does this leave us over the next 5 years? I think it'll pan out as I have suggested with warming waters 'loosening' the multi-year ice's grip to the northern shore of Greenland and the chunk will float free. Any storm surges will then drive this mass into deeper waters where it will become prey to the wind/swell/ocean warmth. Worse still would be a clockwise drift around to the Eurasian side of things where the warm shallows will destroy it in rapid order. In short, 30 years of remaining polar ice cap? Nuts, 5 years tops. "

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Posted
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Thundery or Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire

Well here's one article that stated some scientists models were predicting an ice free arctic by 2013 based on their models. 

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

 

There is a more realistic response from another scientist which states by 2030 being a likely date in the same article but I also seem to remember at the time there was a lot of "ice free arctic within 5 years" doom and gloom nonsense being thrown about because of the record low levels that summer. 

 

Back to the here and now though, nice to see we are still above the last 5 years of sea ice extent, will be interesting to see how it holds up over the winter, especially if it ends up being widely cold across Europe. 

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Posted
  • Location: Raunds, Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Warm if possible but a little snow is nice.
  • Location: Raunds, Northants
Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Sadly if I was what passed as an Arctic scientist ( with on the ground experience of changing conditions there ) around here we're in poor shape! The Movie of the 2007 melt was what prompted that post, I know because I had never been so shocked at an image ( the final frames show the ice to the north of Greenland break free of the coast and drift, en mass, north.

 

My limited knowledge of both the Arctic system ( back then) had me concerned that this protected spot ( the area most likely to hold onto ice for the longest) was compromised and the best of the Arctics ice was in real danger of drift and melt.

 

The past two years have shown me that export from the Arctic is a variable as its weather. I am sure we have all cut our teeth on images/animations showing massive losses of the paleocryistic ice, via the routes out of the Arctic ( and not just by in situ melt), and I then understood this behaviour to be a 'constant', now amended, and so the losses I expected to see were merely a projection of what I had seen from the ten years ( and more ) previous.

 

As it is I do find the anomalous halt in export levels of interest...... and I think more of us need ponder what is driving such? Is it mere variability or is it also an expression of the changes we all witnessed through the 80's onward? 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

 

Hmmmmm... James Taylor. Let me find a similarly qualified author, with a similar degree of bias, misinformation and exaggeration to rebut this article...

Aha, here we go

Compilation: Catastrophic Arctic 'Death Spiral' Meltdown / Imminent Mass Methane (Super Potent Greenhouse / Heat-trapping Gas) 'Time Bomb' Release and the Global Climate EMERGENCY

 

Or perhaps, we could all avoid posting BS? Honestly, posting stuff from James Taylor is just as ridiculous and inaccurate, if not more so, than the link I've posted above.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

EDIT: No idea why this double posted

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

This chart I don't like. Should put a brake on the refreeze somewhat.

post-2404-0-95304200-1417554728_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Very unusual WAA yesterday and today.

01.png

 

in need and with the DMI taking off. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The increase from the 30th of November to the first of December (+385k) was probably the largest single day extent increase on the NSIDC record (1984 saw a larger increase, but then an even larger decrease, so it was most likely just an error).

It will be interesting to see if there is a downward correction today, or if things continue upward.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Yep, the increase continued, with another small gain yesterday. So I guess a new record for the largest NSIDC daily extent increase! (note that 1984 seems to have been an error, so it's in grey)

 

M21O0vZ.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Arctic sea ice extent is now at its highest for a decade, in a few days it will be near 30 year mean.http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.phpscreenhunter_4907-dec-04-07-58.gif?w=640

Edited by keithlucky
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Arctic sea ice extent is now at its highest for a decade, in a few days it will be near 30 year mean.http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.phpscreenhunter_4907-dec-04-07-58.gif?w=640

 

Extent is pretty much tied with last year, which appears the same of the DMI 30% extent graph.

 

I think the main issue here is much of the extent increase is coming from Hudson Bay, which has gone from 25% extent coverage to 80% in the last week. So it's very likely that we'll see a big slow down in overall growth by the weekend, preventing us from reaching the 2000s average.

 

Actually, here's a chart from Wipneus on the sea ice forum showing the extent increase over the last 7 days, with some huge gains in Hudson Bay.

 

6SyOtws.png

 

This has brought the Hudson refreeze up above average.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Looking at the drift maps it does look as though the Atlantic side of the Basin is beginning to see an uptick in the rate of drift but no increase in ice edge further south? Does this mean we are now starting to see ice drift south to melt? With so much 'good ice' over our side of the basin this combination of elevated temps ( poor thickening) and losses all along the Atlantic front ( volume loss) may well see Novembers PIOMAS at its anomalous peak? It would be odd to see this as you would expect the deeper parts of winter to see the best 'gains' in volume but , like last year, mid and late winter appears to show losses in any extra volume refreeze brought?

 

As ever time will tell the full story but I'm concerned about the 'odd' workings of Fram over the past couple of years and am mindful the nature both pushes and pulls so the gains we have accrued from low export over the past months will just as easily turn into high export?

 

With 'high in-situ melt' now a given across the basin it would now appear that 'export' is Natures 'joker in the pack'?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Kilkenny
  • Location: Kilkenny

Looking at the drift maps it does look as though the Atlantic side of the Basin is beginning to see an uptick in the rate of drift but no increase in ice edge further south? Does this mean we are now starting to see ice drift south to melt? With so much 'good ice' over our side of the basin this combination of elevated temps ( poor thickening) and losses all along the Atlantic front ( volume loss) may well see Novembers PIOMAS at its anomalous peak? It would be odd to see this as you would expect the deeper parts of winter to see the best 'gains' in volume but , like last year, mid and late winter appears to show losses in any extra volume refreeze brought?

 

As ever time will tell the full story but I'm concerned about the 'odd' workings of Fram over the past couple of years and am mindful the nature both pushes and pulls so the gains we have accrued from low export over the past months will just as easily turn into high export?

 

With 'high in-situ melt' now a given across the basin it would now appear that 'export' is Natures 'joker in the pack'?

 

 

Where are you getting the idea that the 'good ice' is on the Atlantic side? Ever map I've seen has shown a strong Beaufort gyre which has pushed the vast majority of multi year ice towards the Pacific side. 

 

arcticictnnowcast.gif

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