GFS Upgrade coming - November 2014

[bluearmy]

Upgraded GEFS taking over in September.

 

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

 

 

These maps show the Z500 géopotentiel and pressure at sea level of each of the 21 scenarios proposed by all GEFS 1. The maps are updated from 6:40, 12:40, 6:40 p.m. ET 0:40. (3 hours later than parallel) This run GEFS Parallel (or GEFSP //) is a test version of the new GEFS that will replace the current GEFS late September 2015. It runs in "parallel" of the former GEFS (hence the name). It has a larger horizontal and vertical resolution and uses the latest GFS model (released in early 2015). Its resolution is 0.5 ° 1.0 ° instead of before. Moreover maturities range from 3 hours to 3 hours up to 192h. It is slightly more efficient than the current GEFS and often repproche more operational GFS. Warning: The control run is totally different operational run / deterministic, since the two runs are made ​​at different resolutions. Furthermore the update of GFS January 2015 has not yet been reflected in GEFS, the modeling can thus seem to be more different.

 

put another way (courtesy of weatherbell)

 

 

Expected implementation is October 13, 2015.

First, the resolution of the GEFS (thru Day 10) will be increased to T574 which is coincidentally the previous 27-km grid spacing that we had with the "old GFS" -- now at 13-km globally. There are still 20-perturbed ensemble members and a low-resolution control. But, since the model itself has been upgraded, the GEFS actually includes 22 total members with the following setup:

1 high resolution control = GFS deterministic at 13-km

1 low resolution control = GEFS control at 27-km

20 perturbed members = GEFS at 27-km

The ECMWF system has 52 ensembles where the HRES or deterministic is at 14-km while the ensembles are around 25-km.