western pacific Tropical Storm Fung-wong

[Somerset Squall]

The sixteenth tropical depression of the season has formed east of the Philippines. Winds are at 30kts. The depression has building convection over the LLCC, and formative banding features. The environment ahead is very favourable for intensification, with low shear, very warm waters and strong outflow. In fact, JTWC forecast rapid intensification to occur at some point over the next few days.

Track wise, 16W looks to recurve northeastwards before reaching the Philippines, which is good news after the country has just been affected by Typhoon Kalmaegi. Having said that, some heavy rains are still likely as 16W passes by. Ridging to the north should break down as a trough pushes in from China. This should send 16W northeastwards through the islands southwest of Japan and ultimately into Japan itself. At this point, 16W should be an extratropical storm, but a pretty deep one nonetheless.

Edited September 17, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

16W became a tropical storm last night, named Fung-wong. That's about the only thing that has gone to forecast. Ridging has remained strong to the north, and therefore Fung-wong has not made the northward turn that was forecast, at least yet. Fung-wong is now expected to make landfall on Luzon, instead of passing by the country. The northward turn is still expected to occur after landfall, and the ridge is showing signs of weakening which should allow this to happen. There is still much uncertainty in the track forecast though, particularly with timing.

Fung-wong has also not strengthened as forecast. Winds reached 35kts last night and have remained at that strength since. Moderate shear, which wasn't forecast, has plagued Fung-wong. Fung-wong is still expected to eventually strengthen, but it isn't expected to become a typhoon.

[Somerset Squall]

Fung-wong has still not turned north, and instead is pushing westwards along the north coast of Luzon. Winds have increased to 40kts. Fung-wong is truly drenching the Philippines at present, exacerbating the floods caused by Typhoon Kalmaegi. The question is, when will Fung-wong actually turn north? The original forecasts pointed to Fung-wong passing to the northeast of the Philippines, well east of Taiwan and then to Japan. Currently, if Fung-wong turns north imminently, it will head west of Taiwan and into China. And that turn certainly hasn't materialised yet.

Edited September 19, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Vorticity0123]

Fung-wong has still not turned north, and instead is pushing westwards along the north coast of Luzon. Winds have increased to 40kts. Fung-wong is truly drenching the Philippines at present, exacerbating the floods caused by Typhoon Kalmaegi. The question is, when will Fung-wong actually turn north? The original forecasts pointed to Fung-wong passing to the northeast of the Philippines, well east of Taiwan and then to Japan. Currently, if Fung-wong turns north imminently, it will head west of Taiwan and into China. And that turn certainly hasn't materialised yet.

 

Fung-Wong has definitely tricked the forecasters by stubbornly moving westward while a recurve was continuously being anticiptated. However, the much-anticpated northward turn has finally materialized. Still, complete recurvature seems to be becoming more unlikely, as the latest forecast from JTWC shows the system dissipating after making its second landfall on mainland China.

 

Latest track forecast of Fung-Wong of JTWC.

 

Source:

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

[Somerset Squall]

Fung-wong strengthened to 50kts before making landfall on Taiwan last night. Fung-wong is now lashing Taiwan with high winds and torrential rains. Fung-wong should continue north into Eastern China as Vorticity has said, where dissipation is expected without a visit to Japan. JMA are forecasting Fung-wong to survive it's trip over China however, and recurve eastwards south of South Korea at the end of the forecast period.

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC have now come more into line with JMA regarding track. Again, Fung-wong has not behaved as forecast, and has jogged more to the east than expected, moving up the east coast of Taiwan. Fung-wong's centre is now expected to miss China entirely before veering eastwards south of South Korea. Fung-wong should still be weakening at this point due to increasing shear and cooler sea temps.