eastern pacific Tropical Depression 16E

[Somerset Squall]

Another tropical depression has formed in the eastern Pacific, out to sea, several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. 16E has winds of 30kts. The future looks bleak for this system. Shear is moderate, but is expected to rise significantly as 16E veers northeastwards in 24hrs. The shear may just about be weak enough to allow 16E to become a weak tropical storm in the next 24hrs, but weakening and dissipation is expected soon after as the depression gets drawn towards TS Odile to the east.

[Somerset Squall]

It seems to be the year for Fujiwara Interactions in the East Pacific this year (remember Karina which interacted with Lowell and Marie?). 16E has remained in a steady state overnight, whilst drifting to the north. Moderate shear has stopped the convection becoming organised enough for the depression to become a storm. Shear is set to rise further today as 16E gets drawn eastwards towards TS Odile. 16E is likely to degenerate into a remnant low in a dy or two, before being absorbed into TS Odile in a few days time.

 

[Somerset Squall]

16E has persisted for longer than forecast. Despite being dragged towards the south side of Major Hurricane Odile and being heavily sheared, 16E has managed to maintain some deep convection over the LLCC. This is not expected to persist however, and 16E should soon dissipate in tje outer bands of Odile.

[Somerset Squall]

16E has finally dissipated. It didn't go without a fight! The LLCC became stretched by the heavy shear induced by Major Hurricane Odile. All that exists of 16E now is a small blob of convection to the south of Odile.