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Tropical Storm Dolly


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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

After a worldwide lull in tropical activity, a new tropical depression has developed in the Atlantic ocean, in the bay of Campeche. Aircraft recon was able to close of a well-defined center, and so TD 05 is born with an initial intensity of 25 kt.

Below is the NHC foecast track on TD 05:

203647W5_NL_sm.gif

Track forecast of TD 05 from NOAA.

Source:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Looks heavily sheared to me, with the majority of the convection on the southeastern side of the LLCC. Unless this eases, 05L won't strengthen all that much before landfall in Mexico.

 

post-1820-0-60240100-1409606118_thumb.jp

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Shame its not headed north. At least we should get a name though.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

05L has strengthened into Tropical Storm Dolly, with winds of 40kts. Convection is still being sheared to the southeast of the exposed LLCC, so any further intensification should be modest before landfall, which is expected in about 24hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

Even though the LLCC (low level circulation center) is still exposed on the northwestern side of its convection, this convection has developed much closer to the LLCC (as of 10:45 UTC), with also banding features becoming apparent on the southeast of the convection (still far removed from the circulation, though).

 

vis_lalo-animated.gif

Visible satellite loop of Dolly.

 

Given this far more healthy appearance of Dolly, some strengthening is still possible. Still, as Somerset Squall noted, the short time over water will likely limit the amount of intensification that will occur.

 

Sources:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Basically a big blob but its packing 50mph and forecast to be 60mph by landfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Made landfall at 1002mb.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

The last advisory on Dolly has been issued as the circulation has dissipated over the mountains of Mexico. Heavy rains will take a day or so to begin to subside however.

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