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Vorticity0123

Tropical Storm Dolly

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After a worldwide lull in tropical activity, a new tropical depression has developed in the Atlantic ocean, in the bay of Campeche. Aircraft recon was able to close of a well-defined center, and so TD 05 is born with an initial intensity of 25 kt.

Below is the NHC foecast track on TD 05:

203647W5_NL_sm.gif

Track forecast of TD 05 from NOAA.

Source:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Edited by Somerset Squall

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Looks heavily sheared to me, with the majority of the convection on the southeastern side of the LLCC. Unless this eases, 05L won't strengthen all that much before landfall in Mexico.

 

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05L has strengthened into Tropical Storm Dolly, with winds of 40kts. Convection is still being sheared to the southeast of the exposed LLCC, so any further intensification should be modest before landfall, which is expected in about 24hrs.

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Even though the LLCC (low level circulation center) is still exposed on the northwestern side of its convection, this convection has developed much closer to the LLCC (as of 10:45 UTC), with also banding features becoming apparent on the southeast of the convection (still far removed from the circulation, though).

 

vis_lalo-animated.gif

Visible satellite loop of Dolly.

 

Given this far more healthy appearance of Dolly, some strengthening is still possible. Still, as Somerset Squall noted, the short time over water will likely limit the amount of intensification that will occur.

 

Sources:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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The last advisory on Dolly has been issued as the circulation has dissipated over the mountains of Mexico. Heavy rains will take a day or so to begin to subside however.

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